\u0160pan\u011blskou politiku u\u017e d\u00e1vno opustily dvoustrannost a p\u0159ehlednost. Od roku 2011 se v\u00edt\u011bz\u016fm parlamentn\u00edch voleb nepoda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu 176 k\u0159esel v Kongresu, aby mohli sestavit vl\u00e1du. P\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 volby, kter\u00e9 se konaly v ned\u011bli 23. \u010dervence 2023, jsou dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem voleb bez jasn\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bze. Technicky vzato je v\u00edt\u011bzem tohoto kola voleb st\u0159edopravicov\u00e1 Lidov\u00e1 strana (PP, EEP), kter\u00e1 z\u00edskala nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed po\u010det k\u0159esel v kongresu, celkem 136. Ani s podporou 33 k\u0159esel v Kongresu, kter\u00e9 z\u00edskala konzervativn\u00ed strana Vox (ECR), v\u0161ak PP nem\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu 176 k\u0159esel v Kongresu, kter\u00fd je nutn\u00fd k sestaven\u00ed vl\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n
Co tedy? Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee levice se shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u00ed za sou\u010dasn\u00fdm premi\u00e9rem Pedrem S\u00e1nchezem, ale k z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu k\u0159esel bude zapot\u0159eb\u00ed podpora regionalistick\u00fdch a separatistick\u00fdch stran, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se zd\u00e1, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed slovo bude m\u00edt nechvaln\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e1 strana, kterou zalo\u017eil uprchl\u00fd katal\u00e1nsk\u00fd separatista Carles Puidgemont. Dokonce existuje mo\u017enost, \u017ee \u0161pan\u011bl\u0161t\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 budou je\u0161t\u011b letos znovu vyzv\u00e1ni k volb\u00e1m. Politickou budoucnost \u0160pan\u011blska uk\u00e1\u017ee a\u017e \u010das, ale zat\u00edmco \u010dek\u00e1me, je u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 analyzovat mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
N\u00e1r\u016fst po\u010dtu k\u0159esel PP v Kongresu o 47 a zisk absolutn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny v Sen\u00e1tu ukazuj\u00ed na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed pravice. V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed ve volb\u00e1ch v\u0161ak bude znamenat jen m\u00e1lo, pokud l\u00eddr PP Alberto Nu\u00f1ez Feijo\u00f3 nez\u00edsk\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det mand\u00e1t\u016f. Pravicov\u00fd blok tvo\u0159en\u00fd PP a Voxem by podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f zdaleka nedos\u00e1hl na pot\u0159ebnou v\u011bt\u0161inu, ale pouze na 169 k\u0159esel.<\/p>\n
Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 t\u00e9to skute\u010dnosti m\u00e1 kandid\u00e1t PP dv\u011b mo\u017enosti. Za prv\u00e9, Feijo\u00f3, kter\u00fd nez\u00edskal absolutn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu p\u0159i prvn\u00edm hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed v Kongresu, mohl po\u017e\u00e1dat PSOE, aby se p\u0159i druh\u00e9m hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed zdr\u017eela hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed. V tomto druh\u00e9m kole sta\u010d\u00ed prost\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina k tomu, aby byla ud\u011blena mo\u017enost vl\u00e1dnout. To je v\u0161ak nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, proto\u017ee nejen\u017ee veden\u00ed Partido Socialista Obrero (PSOE, S&D) vyj\u00e1d\u0159ilo neochotu tak u\u010dinit, ale vy\u017eadovalo by to tak\u00e9 konzultaci s militantn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed strany a kladn\u00e9 hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Druhou mo\u017enost\u00ed pro Feijo\u00f3a je zajistit si podporu men\u0161\u00edch stran, aby dos\u00e1hl pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu 176 k\u0159esel v Kongresu. K tomu by pot\u0159eboval p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit nacionalistickou Baskickou stranu (PNV, Renew Europe) s p\u011bti mand\u00e1ty, Coalici\u00f3n Canaria (CC) a Uni\u00f3n Pueblo Navarro (UPN) s jedn\u00edm mand\u00e1tem. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fasp\u011bchu a pouze s podporou 33 k\u0159esel Voxu by PP mohla seskupit po\u010det k\u0159esel pot\u0159ebn\u00fd k sestaven\u00ed vl\u00e1dy. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b PNV ji\u017e varovala, \u017ee nepodpo\u0159\u00ed vl\u00e1du, na n\u00ed\u017e se bude pod\u00edlet Vox. To se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nezm\u011bn\u00ed vzhledem k bl\u00edzkosti voleb do baskick\u00e9 autonomie, v nich\u017e chce PNV z\u00edskat zp\u011bt ztracen\u00e9 pozice ve prosp\u011bch EH Bildu. Krom\u011b toho se KS vyj\u00e1d\u0159ila, \u017ee nen\u00ed ochotna vytvo\u0159it vl\u00e1du s Vox.<\/p>\n
A\u010dkoli se to m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t paradoxn\u00ed, levicov\u00e1 PSOE m\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161ance z\u00edskat vl\u00e1du na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky, p\u0159esto\u017ee nen\u00ed stranou s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem hlas\u016f. Stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b p\u0159edchoz\u00edho z\u00e1konod\u00e1rn\u00e9ho sboru to bude vy\u017eadovat slo\u017eitou a komplikovanou koalici, kter\u00e1 spoj\u00ed rozd\u00edln\u00e9 a \u010dasto protich\u016fdn\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy. P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm bude pot\u0159ebovat podporu nov\u011b vznikl\u00e9 progresivn\u00ed strany Sumar, kter\u00e1 sdru\u017euje a\u017e 14 r\u016fzn\u00fdch krajn\u011b levicov\u00fdch stran v\u010detn\u011b Podemos (GUE\/NGL). Spolu\u00fa\u010dast kandid\u00e1t\u016f b\u011bhem p\u0159edvolebn\u00edch debat a uji\u0161\u0165ov\u00e1n\u00ed na m\u00edtinc\u00edch nazna\u010duje, \u017ee jde o velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad. D\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee by to znamenalo pouze 153 k\u0159esel, co\u017e by vy\u017eadovalo mand\u00e1t separatistick\u00fdch a regionalistick\u00fdch stran.<\/p>\n
Galicijsk\u00e1 strana Bloque Nacionalista Gallego (BNG) a baskick\u00e1 EH Bildu ji\u017e ozn\u00e1mily, \u017ee nebudou blokovat vl\u00e1du vedenou Sanch\u00e9zem. K v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b chyb\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b 16 k\u0159esel, a S\u00e1nchez by tak musel vyzvat sv\u00e9ho b\u00fdval\u00e9ho koali\u010dn\u00edho \u010dlena, separatistickou stranu Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC, Zelen\u00ed). Jak v\u0161ak upozornili, tuto podporu si mohou zajistit pouze v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee dojde k \u00fastupk\u016fm v katal\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ot\u00e1zce. Levicov\u00fd blok by tak z\u00edskal 172 k\u0159esel, co\u017e by mu umo\u017enilo sestavit vl\u00e1du po \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9m druh\u00e9m hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed, pokud by se Junts per Catalu\u00f1a se 7 k\u0159esly zdr\u017eel hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se stal kr\u00e1lem t\u011bchto voleb. Separatistick\u00e1 strana, kterou d\u0159\u00edve vedl uprchl\u00fd Carles Puidgedemont, dala jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee „Pedra S\u00e1ncheze neud\u011bl\u00e1me prezidentem ani za nic… na\u0161\u00ed prioritou je Katal\u00e1nsko, nikoliv spravovatelnost \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu“. Pedro S\u00e1nchez se v\u0161ak na z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159edchoz\u00edch volebn\u00edch obdob\u00ed projevil jako bezohledn\u011b pragmatick\u00fd a nehled\u00edc\u00ed na mo\u017enost, \u017ee by katal\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu separatismu vyhov\u011bl.<\/p>\n
Triumf PSOE v Katal\u00e1nsku a \u00fapadek separatistick\u00fdch stran m\u016f\u017ee nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee strany jako ERC, kter\u00e9 spolupracuj\u00ed s vl\u00e1dou, riskuj\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu podpory – strana ztratila v\u00edce ne\u017e polovinu sv\u00fdch k\u0159esel – pokud vstoup\u00ed do koalice s PSOE. To by je mohlo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit o marnosti p\u0159ijet\u00ed \u00fastupk\u016f bez referenda, co\u017e by znemo\u017enilo vytvo\u0159en\u00ed levicov\u00e9 koalice.<\/p>\n
Nav\u00edc hlasy \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f \u017eij\u00edc\u00edch v zahrani\u010d\u00ed p\u0159inesly PP dal\u0161\u00ed k\u0159eslo, tak\u017ee pravicov\u00fd a levicov\u00fd blok maj\u00ed shodn\u011b 172 mand\u00e1t\u016f. Puigdemontova strana nyn\u00ed bude muset hlasovat ve prosp\u011bch levicov\u00e9ho bloku, aby usp\u011bla, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt mnohem obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se zd\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Ne\u00fasp\u011bch obou blok\u016f p\u0159i sestavov\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00e1dy povede k nevyhnuteln\u00e9mu z\u00e1v\u011bru o nutnosti opakov\u00e1n\u00ed voleb. Pokud se budou volby opakovat, m\u016f\u017ee to p\u0159in\u00e9st pos\u00edlen\u00ed PP, jak uk\u00e1zal n\u00e1r\u016fst mand\u00e1t\u016f PP ve volb\u00e1ch v roce 2016, nebo p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm zachov\u00e1n\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu, jak ukazuj\u00ed mand\u00e1ty PSOE po volb\u00e1ch v roce 2019. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 brzy na to, aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddat n\u011bkter\u00fd z t\u011bchto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f.<\/p>\n
V\u00edme jen, \u017ee prozat\u00edm nen\u00ed nic pevn\u011b d\u00e1no. Za sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu je nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee se ani jednomu z blok\u016f nepoda\u0159\u00ed z\u00edskat pot\u0159ebnou v\u011bt\u0161inu, aby mohl vl\u00e1dnout \u0160pan\u011blsku dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky. Je\u0161t\u011b znepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee pokud se tak stane, m\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt za cenu poskytnut\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch \u00fastupk\u016f separatist\u016fm a dal\u0161\u00edch \u010dty\u0159 let koalice slo\u017een\u00e9 z krajn\u011b levicov\u00fdch stran, v\u010detn\u011b strany slo\u017een\u00e9 z b\u00fdval\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f teroristick\u00e9 skupiny ETA. Paradoxn\u011b nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm – a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i nejlep\u0161\u00edm – v\u00fdsledkem by byl n\u00e1vrat k volebn\u00edm urn\u00e1m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0160pan\u011blskou politiku u\u017e d\u00e1vno opustily dvoustrannost a p\u0159ehlednost. Od roku 2011 se v\u00edt\u011bz\u016fm parlamentn\u00edch voleb nepoda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout pot\u0159ebn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu 176 k\u0159esel v Kongresu, aby mohli sestavit vl\u00e1du. P\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 volby, kter\u00e9 se konaly v ned\u011bli 23. \u010dervence 2023, jsou dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem voleb bez jasn\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bze. Technicky vzato je v\u00edt\u011bzem tohoto kola voleb st\u0159edopravicov\u00e1 Lidov\u00e1 strana (PP, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":11012,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[158],"tags":[],"editorial-positions":[],"regions":[],"types":[449],"class_list":["post-13367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politika","types-opinion-cs"],"yoast_head":"\n