Eurotower jako sklen\u011bn\u00e1 pevnost: Kdy\u017e se n\u00e1stupnictv\u00ed ECB stane vnit\u0159n\u00ed hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lkou<\/li><\/a><\/ul><\/div>\nKdy\u017e rakety a bezpilotn\u00ed letouny zasahuj\u00ed c\u00edle v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Levant\u011b, nejde jen o region\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu. Jde o Kyjev. Jde o Var\u0161avu. Jde o z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky. Jde o cenu energie, kter\u00e1 poh\u00e1n\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 ekonomiky. V kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku jde o bezpe\u010dnost kontinentu. <\/p>\n
N\u011bkolik evropsk\u00fdch pozorovatel\u016f vyj\u00e1d\u0159ilo obavy, \u017ee eskalace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by mohla sn\u00ed\u017eit pozornost a zdroje USA pro Ukrajinu v dob\u011b, kdy je Kyjev nad\u00e1le z\u00e1sadn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd na podpo\u0159e Z\u00e1padu. Nejedn\u00e1 se o ideologick\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed, ale o hodnocen\u00ed logistick\u00e9: st\u00edha\u010dky, syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a modern\u00ed munice nejsou nekone\u010dn\u00e9 zdroje. <\/p>\n
Struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed vazby mezi Moskvou a Teher\u00e1nem – zejm\u00e9na v oblasti bezpilotn\u00edch letoun\u016f a vojensk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce – z\u00e1rove\u0148 jasn\u011b uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize nejsou izolovan\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti. Rusko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 osa nen\u00ed zanedbateln\u00fdm detailem: je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed opera\u010dn\u00ed architektury prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b. <\/p>\n
V\u00fdsledkem je neviditeln\u00e1, ale skute\u010dn\u00e1 fronta spojuj\u00edc\u00ed Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv s ukrajinsk\u00fdmi pl\u00e1n\u011bmi.<\/p>\n
Osa Moskva-Teher\u00e1n: konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed vojensk\u00fd uzel<\/h2>\n
Spolupr\u00e1ce mezi Ruskem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem nen\u00ed diplomatickou r\u00e9torikou. Jde o technologie, v\u00fdrobu a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 kapacity. <\/p>\n
Pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed bezpilotn\u00edch letoun\u016f \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 konstrukce na Ukrajin\u011b je \u0161iroce zdokumentov\u00e1no a p\u0159edstavuje jeden z n\u00e1stroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 Moskva pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 ke kompenzaci sv\u00e9 konven\u010dn\u00ed zranitelnosti. V konfliktu, kter\u00fd se zm\u011bnil ve v\u00e1lku na opot\u0159eben\u00ed, m\u00e1 dostupnost levn\u00fdch a snadno replikovateln\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f zna\u010dnou strategickou v\u00e1hu. <\/p>\n
To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli oslaben\u00ed nebo destabilizace \u00cdr\u00e1nu m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed dopad na rusk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed. Znamen\u00e1 to v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 opak: pokud bude \u00cdr\u00e1n pod tlakem, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt Moskva tla\u010dena k pos\u00edlen\u00ed jin\u00fdch kan\u00e1l\u016f spolupr\u00e1ce a hledat kompenzaci jinde. <\/p>\n
Evropa si nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit pova\u017eovat tento v\u00fdvoj za izolovan\u00e9 nebo \u010dist\u011b symbolick\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky jsou pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. A pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky se vyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed nebo prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b schopnosti vyr\u00e1b\u011bt, p\u0159izp\u016fsobovat se a dopl\u0148ovat z\u00e1soby. <\/p>\n
Pokud se osa Moskva-Teher\u00e1n rozpadne, m\u016f\u017ee se opera\u010dn\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ha na ukrajinsk\u00e9 front\u011b zm\u011bnit. Pokud v\u0161ak Z\u00e1pad bude muset p\u0159erozd\u011blovat zdroje na v\u00edce front\u00e1ch sou\u010dasn\u011b, bude evropsk\u00e1 odolnost rovn\u011b\u017e vystavena zkou\u0161ce. <\/p>\n
Americk\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: omezen\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, evropsk\u00e1 odpov\u011bdnost<\/h2>\n
Dal\u0161\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd prvek se t\u00fdk\u00e1 udr\u017eitelnosti podpory ze Z\u00e1padu.<\/p>\n
Podle anal\u00fdz zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm tisku hroz\u00ed, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed anga\u017eovanosti USA na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b ovlivn\u00ed dostupnost syst\u00e9m\u016f a munice ur\u010den\u00fdch pro Ukrajinu. Spot\u0159eba st\u00edha\u010dek a raket protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany nen\u00ed abstraktn\u00ed: ka\u017ed\u00e1 baterie nasazen\u00e1 v jednom divadle je nedostupn\u00e1 v jin\u00e9m. <\/p>\n
Nejde o zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed Atlantick\u00e9 aliance. Naopak. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee Aliance z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pil\u00ed\u0159em evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti, je nutn\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit z\u00e1kladn\u00ed skute\u010dnost: \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 mocnost nem\u016f\u017ee donekone\u010dna udr\u017eovat soub\u011b\u017en\u00e9 anga\u017em\u00e1 v n\u011bkolika kriz\u00edch vysok\u00e9 intenzity, ani\u017e by do\u0161lo k p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed priorit a zdroj\u016f.<\/p>\n
Skute\u010dnou ot\u00e1zkou tedy nen\u00ed, zda Washington z\u016fstane odhodlan\u00fd. Ot\u00e1zka zn\u00ed: je Evropa p\u0159ipravena p\u0159evz\u00edt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed d\u00edl odpov\u011bdnosti? <\/p>\n
Po desetilet\u00ed se kontinent mohl spolehnout na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 automatick\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 kryt\u00ed. Dnes je sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: Tichomo\u0159\u00ed, Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropa jsou vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojen\u00e9 oblasti, kde se vojensk\u00e9 schopnosti vz\u00e1jemn\u011b prol\u00ednaj\u00ed. <\/p>\n
V tomto kontextu by bylo ignorov\u00e1n\u00edm syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 povahy sou\u010dasn\u00fdch kriz\u00ed pokra\u010dovat v n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee evropskou bezpe\u010dnost lze zcela delegovat.<\/p>\n
Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv jako zraniteln\u00e1 oblast Evropy<\/b><\/h2>\n
Jestli\u017ee vojensk\u00fd uzel spojuje Teher\u00e1n s Kyjevem, energetick\u00fd uzel spojuje Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv s evropsk\u00fdmi hlavn\u00edmi m\u011bsty.<\/p>\n
Jak\u00e1koli eskalace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se okam\u017eit\u011b prom\u00edtne do volatility na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch. Nap\u011bt\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, hrozby pro lodn\u00ed dopravu a ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed na adresu z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed ji\u017e zp\u016fsobily finan\u010dn\u00ed zmatky a v\u00fdkyvy cen. Nejedn\u00e1 se o do\u010dasn\u00fd detail: je to geopolitick\u00e1 konstanta. <\/p>\n
Pro Evropu nen\u00ed energetika pouze ekonomickou ot\u00e1zkou. Je to ot\u00e1zka politick\u00e9 stability. <\/p>\n
Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny znamenaj\u00ed:<\/p>\n
\n- p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed inflace<\/li>\n
- tlak na ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 rozpo\u010dty<\/li>\n
- soci\u00e1ln\u00ed nepokoje<\/li>\n
- sn\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed rozp\u011bt\u00ed pro strategick\u00e9 investice<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
A nakonec i men\u0161\u00ed schopnost udr\u017eet dlouhodob\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed front\u011b.<\/p>\n
Evropsk\u00e1 unie se v posledn\u00edch letech pustila do n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 diverzifikace dod\u00e1vek energie. Struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1vislost na v\u00fdvoji na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se v\u0161ak nepoda\u0159ilo odstranit. Ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i dlouhodob\u00e9ho konfliktu se rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem op\u011bt st\u00e1v\u00e1 tak\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnost n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras. <\/p>\n
Pou\u010den\u00ed je jednoduch\u00e9, ale \u010dasto ignorovan\u00e9: bez energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti nen\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n
K\u0159ehkost evropsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu<\/b><\/h2>\n
Nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zka se v\u0161ak t\u00fdk\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 kapacity.<\/p>\n
V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee Evropa nebyla p\u0159ipravena na konflikt vysok\u00e9 intenzity ve sv\u00e9m sousedstv\u00ed. Z\u00e1soby munice se uk\u00e1zaly jako nedostate\u010dn\u00e9. V\u00fdrobn\u00ed lh\u016fty se uk\u00e1zaly b\u00fdt dlouh\u00e9. Obrann\u00fd dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd pod\u00e9l \u010dasto nekoordinovan\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch lini\u00ed. <\/p>\n
V dob\u011b, kdy Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty budou mo\u017en\u00e1 muset p\u0159erozd\u011blit zdroje mezi v\u00edce divadel, se tato nestabilita st\u00e1v\u00e1 strategick\u00fdm rizikem.<\/p>\n
To nen\u00ed v\u00fdzva k byrokratick\u00e9 centralizaci nebo ideologick\u00fdm hesl\u016fm. Jde o prim\u00e1rn\u00ed odpov\u011bdnost st\u00e1t\u016f. <\/p>\n
Konzervativn\u00ed evropsk\u00e1 politick\u00e1 tradice – vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00e1 v z\u00e1sad\u00e1ch Reykjav\u00edck\u00e9 deklarace – se zam\u011b\u0159uje na demokratickou suverenitu n\u00e1rod\u016f, v\u00fdkon moci na co nejefektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni a p\u0159\u00edmou odpov\u011bdnost vl\u00e1d v\u016f\u010di ob\u010dan\u016fm.<\/p>\n
P\u0159i aplikaci na bezpe\u010dnost z t\u00e9to z\u00e1sady vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed skute\u010dnost: obranu nelze outsourcovat.<\/p>\n
Spolupr\u00e1ce mezi evropsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty je nezbytn\u00e1. Tato spolupr\u00e1ce v\u0161ak mus\u00ed pos\u00edlit n\u00e1rodn\u00ed kapacity, nikoli je nahradit strukturami, kter\u00e9 nejsou skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ipraveny k \u010dinnosti. <\/p>\n
\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize, vn\u00edman\u00e1 soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b, ukazuje, \u017ee Evropa je zapojena do glob\u00e1ln\u00ed sout\u011b\u017ee, v n\u00ed\u017e pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba, logistick\u00e1 odolnost a rychl\u00e9 rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed maj\u00ed stejn\u00fd v\u00fdznam – ne-li v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed – jako politick\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Strategick\u00e1 volba pro Evropu<\/b><\/h2>\n
V tomto okam\u017eiku je k\u0159i\u017eovatka jasn\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Evropa se m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout, \u017ee bude na krize nad\u00e1le reagovat jako na samostatn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti, a v\u011b\u0159it ve schopnost USA udr\u017eet v\u00edce front sou\u010dasn\u011b. M\u016f\u017ee se omezit na zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 situace a ka\u017edou novou eskalaci pron\u00e1sledovat d\u00edl\u010d\u00edmi a opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi. Nebo m\u016f\u017ee u\u010dinit jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011br. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize nen\u00ed okrajovou ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. Je to zkou\u0161ka. Zkou\u0161kou schopnosti Evropy pochopit, \u017ee bezpe\u010dnost m\u00e1 syst\u00e9mov\u00fd charakter. \u017de se jednotliv\u00e9 oblasti p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00ed. \u017de z\u00e1soby nejsou nekone\u010dn\u00e9. \u017de energie je geopolitickou zbran\u00ed. \u017de pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba je odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek. <\/p>\n
Nejde o volbu mezi intervencionismem a neutralismem. Jde o volbu mezi z\u00e1vislost\u00ed a odpov\u011bdnost\u00ed. <\/p>\n
Odpov\u011bdnost znamen\u00e1:<\/p>\n
\n- pos\u00edlen\u00ed obrann\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed st\u00e1tu<\/li>\n
- koordinace evropsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed<\/li>\n
- investice do energetick\u00e9 odolnosti<\/li>\n
- p\u0159evzet\u00ed pevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed role v r\u00e1mci Severoatlantick\u00e9 aliance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Ne proti Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm, ale spole\u010dn\u011b s nimi. Ne proto, aby nahradily NATO, ale proto, aby bylo vyv\u00e1\u017een\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. <\/p>\n
Jestli\u017ee Moskva a Teher\u00e1n uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee geopolitick\u00e9 osy mohou p\u0159esahovat region\u00e1ln\u00ed hranice, Evropa mus\u00ed uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee ch\u00e1pe povahu doby, v n\u00ed\u017e \u017eije. Osa mezi Moskvou a Teher\u00e1nem, tlak na z\u00e1padn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky a evropsk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 zranitelnost nejsou odd\u011blen\u00e9 d\u00edlky vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 mozaiky. Jsou to sou\u010d\u00e1sti t\u00e9\u017ee strategick\u00e9 rovnice. Evropa se m\u016f\u017ee i nad\u00e1le pova\u017eovat za „posthistorick\u00e9ho“ akt\u00e9ra, kter\u00fd je chr\u00e1n\u011bn p\u0159ed dynamikou odehr\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed se jinde. Nebo si m\u016f\u017ee uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee sv\u011bt se vr\u00e1til ke konkurenceschopnosti, pr\u016fmyslu a geopolitice. Bezpe\u010dnost nen\u00ed abstraktn\u00ed pojem. Je to produktivn\u00ed kapacita. Je to v\u011brohodn\u00e9 odstra\u0161en\u00ed. Je to autonomie rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Je to n\u00e1rodn\u00ed odpov\u011bdnost vykon\u00e1van\u00e1 ve spolupr\u00e1ci se spolehliv\u00fdmi spojenci. Pokud z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 krize plyne pro Evropu n\u011bjak\u00e9 ponau\u010den\u00ed, pak je to toto: neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 fronty, pokud jste z\u00e1visl\u00ed na rozhodnut\u00edch ostatn\u00edch. <\/p>\n
Skute\u010dn\u00e1 frontov\u00e1 linie nen\u00ed zakreslena na map\u011b. Je vyty\u010dena politickou v\u016fl\u00ed kontinentu, kter\u00fd se mus\u00ed rozhodnout, zda z\u016fstane z\u00e1visl\u00fd na vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ze, nebo se vr\u00e1t\u00ed k tomu, \u017ee se stane protagonistou sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti. <\/p>\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Evropa si po l\u00e9ta p\u011bstovala uklid\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed iluzi, \u017ee krize mohou z\u016fstat omezeny na jej\u00ed geografick\u00e9 hranice. Ukrajina na v\u00fdchod\u011b. Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod na jihu. Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv daleko, ukrajinsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta bl\u00ed\u017e, ale st\u00e1le ohrani\u010den\u00e1. Dnes u\u017e tato iluze neplat\u00ed.RELATEDUkrajinsk\u00e9 dohody o bezpilotn\u00edch letounech a budoucnost evropsk\u00e9 obranyZ \u00cdr\u00e1nu do Kyjeva: Neviditeln\u00e1 frontov\u00e1 linie nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d EvropouDrogy, chemick\u00e9 prekurzory […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":81,"featured_media":51739,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[158],"tags":[3008,2897,3005,3007,3006],"editorial-positions":[],"regions":[387,328,339,344,356,364],"types":[449],"class_list":["post-51809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politika","tag-eu-defence-policy","tag-european-security","tag-iran-crisis","tag-russia-iran-axis","tag-ukraine-war","regions-africa-and-middle-east-cs","regions-central-europe-cs","regions-eastern-europe-cs","regions-northern-europe-cs","regions-southern-europe-cs","regions-western-europe-cs","types-opinion-cs"],"yoast_head":"\n
Z \u00cdr\u00e1nu do Kyjeva: Neviditeln\u00e1 frontov\u00e1 linie nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d Evropou - The Conservative<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/cs\/z-iranu-do-kyjeva-neviditelna-frontova-linie-napric-evropou\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Z \u00cdr\u00e1nu do Kyjeva: Neviditeln\u00e1 frontov\u00e1 linie nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d Evropou - The Conservative\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Evropa si po l\u00e9ta p\u011bstovala uklid\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed iluzi, \u017ee krize mohou z\u016fstat omezeny na jej\u00ed geografick\u00e9 hranice. Ukrajina na v\u00fdchod\u011b. Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod na jihu. 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