{"id":14828,"date":"2023-10-27T05:45:05","date_gmt":"2023-10-27T05:45:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/financijski-nered-u-proracunu-eu-a"},"modified":"2023-10-27T05:45:05","modified_gmt":"2023-10-27T05:45:05","slug":"financijski-nered-u-proracunu-eu-a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/hr\/financijski-nered-u-proracunu-eu-a","title":{"rendered":"Financijski nered u prora\u010dunu EU-a"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nakon krize uzrokovane bole\u0161\u0107u COVID-19 Europska unija odlu\u010dila je zapo\u010deti svoj poznati program NextGenerationEU (NGEU), program oporavka nakon pandemije koji se mora u potpunosti nadoknaditi do 2058.<\/p>\n

U samom nazivu programa postoji odre\u0111eni sarkazam, kao \u0161to \u0107e ga platiti sljede\u0107a generacija dr\u017eavljana dr\u017eava \u010dlanica. Konkretnije, glavne otplate glavnice zapo\u010det \u0107e od 2028. godine, jer nova skupina sada\u0161njih studenata po\u010dinje raditi.<\/p>\n

Brifing<\/a> koji je nedavno objavio Resorni odjel za prora\u010dunske poslove u Europskom parlamentu, a koji se bavi dugoro\u010dnim prijedlogom zakona o tro\u0161kovima zadu\u017eivanja povezan s NGEU-om, upu\u0107uje na njegove financijske slabosti.<\/p>\n

Prije svega, projekcija desetogodi\u0161njih referentnih prinosa za EU i odabrane izdavatelje pokazuje potpuni nedostatak planifikacije u ime Europske unije u pogledu tro\u0161kova zadu\u017eivanja, \u010dak i kratkoro\u010dno: od lipnja 2021. do lipnja 2023. tro\u0161kovi zadu\u017eivanja znatno su porasli, odnosno vi\u0161e od 3 %.<\/p>\n

S druge strane, izvje\u0161\u0107e pokazuje da je Europska unija pokazala jasnu nepouzdanost na financijskim tr\u017ei\u0161tima kao izdavatelj velikih razmjera jer je Europska komisija najavila namjeru izdavanja obveznica znatno vi\u0161e od onoga \u0161to su zemlje EU-a kasnije zatra\u017eile za isplatu. Manje od polovice dr\u017eava \u010dlanica, odnosno trinaest od ukupno dvadeset i sedam, zatra\u017eilo je zajmove putem zajedni\u010dkog instrumenta EU-a za zadu\u017eivanje.<\/p>\n

U apsolutnom iznosu Europska unija namjerava posuditi oko 421 milijardu eura prije kraja 2026. za financiranje bespovratne potpore dr\u017eavama \u010dlanicama EU-a. Stoga \u0107e se i kamate i glavnica tog duga morati pokriti iz prora\u010duna EU-a, od sada do 2058., kada se dug mora u potpunosti nadoknaditi.<\/p>\n

U izvje\u0161\u0107u se navodi da \u0107e kamatne stope ostati relativno stabilne do kraja 2030., a zatim bi se mogle polako smanjivati i dugoro\u010dno stabilizirati ispod 2 %. Me\u0111utim, postoji vjerojatnost od 50 % da \u0107e kamatna stopa 2058. dosegnuti 3,4 %, a u tom bi se slu\u010daju tro\u0161kovi financiranja instrumenta NGEU gotovo udvostru\u010dili u odnosu na predvi\u0111anja povezana s trenuta\u010dnim raspravama o pove\u0107anju prora\u010duna EU-a.<\/p>\n

\u0160to je jo\u0161 gore od toga, kako bi se zajam\u010dila vjerojatnost od 90 % za iznos tro\u0161kova zadu\u017eivanja u EU-u s dugoro\u010dnim prikazom do 2058., u izvje\u0161\u0107u se upu\u0107uje na potencijalno maksimalnu kamatnu stopu od 6,2 %, \u0161to bi zna\u010dilo vi\u0161e nego trostruko od trenuta\u010dnih rasprava o prora\u010dunu EU-a.<\/p>\n

Ono \u0161to se \u010dini jasnim jest da \u0107e do\u0107i do naglog pove\u0107anja godi\u0161njih tro\u0161kova kamata barem u sljede\u0107ih deset godina. U umjerenom scenariju predvi\u0111eni godi\u0161nji i ukupni tro\u0161kovi kamata koje je EU snosio 2058. iznosili bi 221,8 eura, \u0161to bi vi\u0161e od polovice kapitala koji je EU posudio za financiranje svoje bespovratne potpore dr\u017eavama \u010dlanicama EU-a.<\/p>\n

Situacija bi izgledala jo\u0161 gore u najgorem scenariju, u kojem bi ukupni tro\u0161kovi kamata mogli dosegnuti 410,2 milijarde eura, jedva 100 % kapitala ili udvostru\u010diti sredstva koja je EU posudio za financiranje bespovratnih sredstava dr\u017eava \u010dlanica EU-a.<\/p>\n

U izvje\u0161\u0107u se upu\u0107uje na to da \u0107e se u cijelom razdoblju 2023. \u2013 2058. iz prora\u010duna EU-a najvjerojatnije morati potro\u0161iti izme\u0111u 582 i 715 milijardi eura za pla\u0107anje kamata i nadoknadu duga za bespovratnu potporu dr\u017eavama \u010dlanicama u okviru instrumenta NGEU. Iz te \u010dinjenice nu\u017eno proizlaze dvije alternative: ili rezanje sredstava za druge prioritete EU-a ili pro\u0161irenje prora\u010duna Unije.<\/p>\n

Druga alternativa podrazumijeva daljnje tamne oblake: Kako bi se to \u0161irenje financiralo? Komisija Von der Leyen predlo\u017eila je, povrh polemi\u010dkog sustava trgovanja emisijama ugljika i mehanizma za grani\u010dnu prilagodbu emisija ugljika, privremeni [?] porez na dobit poduze\u0107a.<\/p>\n

Me\u0111utim, za\u0161to bi poduze\u0107a i njihovi dioni\u010dari trebali platiti za nepromi\u0161ljenost Unije, ostaje za vidjeti. Povrh toga, u brifingu se upozorava da se sustavom trgovanja emisijama ve\u0107 trebaju financirati drugi fondovi EU-a kako bi se iznos koji bi se mogao upotrijebiti za servisiranje duga NGEU-a znatno smanjio.<\/p>\n

Pod takvim o\u010ditim slabostima, nije ni \u010dudo da neke nacionalne vlade cijeli kontekst gledaju s jakim skepticizmom.<\/p>\n

Izvor slike: Spectator<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nakon krize uzrokovane bole\u0161\u0107u COVID-19 Europska unija odlu\u010dila je zapo\u010deti svoj poznati program NextGenerationEU (NGEU), program oporavka nakon pandemije koji se mora u potpunosti nadoknaditi do 2058. U samom nazivu programa postoji odre\u0111eni sarkazam, kao \u0161to \u0107e ga platiti sljede\u0107a generacija dr\u017eavljana dr\u017eava \u010dlanica. Konkretnije, glavne otplate glavnice zapo\u010det \u0107e od 2028. godine, jer nova […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":14385,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[186,161,151],"tags":[],"editorial-positions":[42],"regions":[],"types":[450],"class_list":["post-14828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eseji","category-politika-hr","category-trgovina-i-ekonomija","editorial-positions-focus","types-opinion-hr"],"yoast_head":"\nFinancijski nered u prora\u010dunu EU-a - The Conservative<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/hr\/financijski-nered-u-proracunu-eu-a\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hr_HR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Financijski nered u prora\u010dunu EU-a - The Conservative\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nakon krize uzrokovane bole\u0161\u0107u COVID-19 Europska unija odlu\u010dila je zapo\u010deti svoj poznati program NextGenerationEU (NGEU), program oporavka nakon pandemije koji se mora u potpunosti nadoknaditi do 2058. 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