{"id":55409,"date":"2026-05-10T07:27:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T07:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/hoce-li-iran-gurnuti-europu-natrag-u-nuklearno-oruzje"},"modified":"2026-05-10T07:27:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T07:27:00","slug":"hoce-li-iran-gurnuti-europu-natrag-u-nuklearno-oruzje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/hr\/hoce-li-iran-gurnuti-europu-natrag-u-nuklearno-oruzje","title":{"rendered":"Ho\u0107e li Iran gurnuti Europu natrag u nuklearno oru\u017eje?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Desetlje\u0107ima je europsku energetsku politiku manje oblikovao strate\u0161ki realizam, a vi\u0161e ideolo\u0161ki refleks. Nigdje to nije bilo o\u010ditije nego u njezinoj dugoj i \u010desto iracionalnoj averziji prema nuklearnoj energiji. Pa ipak, povijest ima na\u010din da razotkrije ugodne iluzije. Dok nestabilnost na Bliskom istoku s iranskom blokadom Hormu\u0161kog tjesnaca – i ameri\u010dkom blokadom iranske blokade, kako je nedavno bolno objasnio ameri\u010dki ministar rata Pete Hegseth –<\/a> ponovno \u0161alje tr\u017ei\u0161ta fosilnih goriva u previranja, Europa bi kona\u010dno mogla biti prisiljena suo\u010diti se s bolnom istinom: njezin antinuklearni stav nije bio razborit ekolo\u0161ki zagovor, ve\u0107 strate\u0161ko samopovre\u0111ivanje. Zapravo, samoubojstvo. <\/p>\n

Ozbiljan poreme\u0107aj u protoku nafte i plina u Zaljevu odmah odjekuje na globalnim energetskim tr\u017ei\u0161tima. Europa, koja je jo\u0161 uvijek uvelike ovisna o uvozu ugljikovodika unato\u010d godinama zelene retorike, ve\u0107 se suo\u010dava s vrtoglavim rastom cijena<\/a> , industrijskim pritiskom i obnovljenom ranjivo\u0161\u0107u na vanjske \u0161okove, kao \u0161to se dogodilo i tijekom pandemije Covid-19. U takvom scenariju mnogi Europljani po\u010dinju shva\u0107ati da su narativi koji su se dugo koristili protiv nuklearne energije – o apokalipti\u010dnoj opasnosti, nerje\u0161ivom otpadu i neizbje\u017enoj katastrofi – bili manje utemeljeni u stvarnosti nego u kolektivnoj politi\u010dkoj halucinaciji. Antinuklearni konsenzus mogao bi se sve vi\u0161e pokazati onakvim kakvim se \u010dini: ne mudro\u0161\u0107u, ve\u0107 ru\u017enim snom; \u0161tovi\u0161e, no\u0107nom morom iz koje se Europa mora hitno probuditi. <\/p>\n

Vrijeme za takvu ponovnu procjenu te\u0161ko da bi moglo biti prikladnije. Diljem kontinenta politi\u010dka plima se ve\u0107 okre\u0107e. Najsimboli\u010dnije je to \u0161to je Belgija – nekada jedna od najposve\u0107enijih europskih dr\u017eava postupnom ukidanju nuklearne energije – dramati\u010dno promijenila smjer. U zna\u010dajnoj odluci objavljenoj ovog tjedna<\/a> , belgijska vlada krenula je u preuzimanje nuklearne imovine zemlje od Engieja i obustavila planove razgradnje, izri\u010dito navode\u0107i energetsku sigurnost, pristupa\u010dnost i smanjenu ovisnost o fosilnim gorivima kao motivacije. <\/span>Belgijski preokret nije samo tehni\u010dke prirode; on je simbol \u0161ireg europskog preispitivanja.<\/p>\n

Drugdje je nuklearni oporavak ve\u0107 u tijeku. Francuska je i dalje predana pro\u0161irenju svoje flote reaktora. Poljska ubrzano nastavlja sa svojim prvim komercijalnim nuklearnim programom. \u010ce\u0161ka i Rumunjska pro\u0161iruju kapacitete. \u010cak su i povijesno skepti\u010dne dr\u017eave poput Nizozemske i \u0160vedske ponovno otvorile raspravu. <\/p>\n

Mo\u017eda najzna\u010dajnije, Ma\u0111arska je nastavila udvostru\u010davati ulaganja u nuklearnu energiju izgradnjom Paksa II, pro\u0161irenja svoje vode\u0107e nuklearne elektrane s ruskom dr\u017eavnom nuklearnom tvrtkom Rosatom. Izgradnja je slu\u017ebeno u\u0161la u svoju glavnu fazu po\u010detkom 2026. izlijevanjem prvog betona za Blok 5. <\/span>\u0160to god mislili o geopoliti\u010dkim komplikacijama koje okru\u017euju rusko sudjelovanje, te\u0161ko je pore\u0107i strate\u0161ku logiku koja stoji iza odluke Budimpe\u0161te: u nestabilnom svijetu, dr\u017eave koje mogu doma proizvoditi stabilnu bazu elektri\u010dne energije imaju strukturnu prednost nad onima koje ovise o uvozu ugljikovodika.<\/p>\n

Doista, Paks II ilustrira i obe\u0107anje i paradoks europskog nuklearnog trenutka. Ma\u0111arska ispravno shva\u0107a da energetski suverenitet zahtijeva raspolo\u017eivu doma\u0107u proizvodnju. No, budu\u0107i da je ve\u0107i dio zapadne Europe godinama demontirao vlastitu nuklearnu industriju, Budimpe\u0161ta nije imala drugog izbora nego se okrenuti vanjskim dobavlja\u010dima – uklju\u010duju\u0107i geopoliti\u010dke rivale – kako bi osigurala taj kapacitet. Europska antinuklearna dogma stoga nije smanjila ovisnost; samo ju je promijenila, a u nekim slu\u010dajevima i pogor\u0161ala. <\/p>\n

Strate\u0161ki argumenti za nuklearnu energiju postaju sve sna\u017eniji. Za razliku od vjetra i sunca, nuklearna energija osigurava kontinuiranu proizvodnju baznog optere\u0107enja neovisno o vremenskim uvjetima. Za razliku od plina, ne izla\u017ee dr\u017eave geopoliti\u010dkom utjecaju izvoznika. Za razliku od ugljena, ne potkopava ciljeve dekarbonizacije. I za razliku od karikatura koje aktivisti \u0161ire desetlje\u0107ima, moderni reaktori generacije III+ imaju malo sli\u010dnosti sa zastarjelim tehnologijama povezanim s nesre\u0107ama dvadesetog stolje\u0107a. <\/p>\n

Ono \u0161to Europa polako ponovno otkriva ne\u0161to je \u0161to su prethodne generacije instinktivno shva\u0107ale: civilizacijska mo\u0107 po\u010diva na sigurnoj, obilnoj i kontroliranoj energiji. SAD to zna, Kina to zna, Rusija to zna, a Europa mora nau\u010diti da je to neizbje\u017ena stvarnost. <\/p>\n

Predugo su europske elite poku\u0161avale zamijeniti industrijski realizam moralnim poziranjem – zami\u0161ljaju\u0107i da povremeni obnovljivi izvori energije, uvozni LNG i pusti san mogu zajedno odr\u017eati razvijena gospodarstva. Rat u Ukrajini razbio je dio te iluzije. Veliki poreme\u0107aj iranske opskrbe fosilnim gorivima mogao bi razbiti ostatak. <\/p>\n

Dok Teheranovi postupci – i \u0161ira nestabilnost u Zaljevu – ponovno otkrivaju krhkost globalnih lanaca opskrbe ugljikovodicima, Europa mora kona\u010dno zaklju\u010diti da se energetska politika ne mo\u017ee prepustiti ideologiji.<\/p>\n

Europsko antinuklearno doba izgra\u0111eno je na strahu. Njezin nuklearni preporod bit \u0107e izgra\u0111en na nu\u017edi. A povijest sugerira da je nu\u017eda ja\u010da sila. Uostalom, naziva se i instinktom pre\u017eivljavanja. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Desetlje\u0107ima je europsku energetsku politiku manje oblikovao strate\u0161ki realizam, a vi\u0161e ideolo\u0161ki refleks. Nigdje to nije bilo o\u010ditije nego u njezinoj dugoj i \u010desto iracionalnoj averziji prema nuklearnoj energiji. Pa ipak, povijest ima na\u010din da razotkrije ugodne iluzije. Dok nestabilnost na Bliskom istoku s iranskom blokadom Hormu\u0161kog tjesnaca – i ameri\u010dkom blokadom iranske blokade, kako […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":76,"featured_media":54810,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[218,161],"tags":[],"editorial-positions":[],"regions":[330,336,343,354,366],"types":[413,450],"class_list":["post-55409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energija","category-politika-hr","regions-central-europe-hr","regions-eastern-europe-hr","regions-northern-europe-hr","regions-southern-europe-hr","regions-western-europe-hr","types-news-hr","types-opinion-hr"],"yoast_head":"\nHo\u0107e li Iran gurnuti Europu natrag u nuklearno oru\u017eje? - The Conservative<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/hr\/hoce-li-iran-gurnuti-europu-natrag-u-nuklearno-oruzje\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hr_HR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ho\u0107e li Iran gurnuti Europu natrag u nuklearno oru\u017eje? - The Conservative\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Desetlje\u0107ima je europsku energetsku politiku manje oblikovao strate\u0161ki realizam, a vi\u0161e ideolo\u0161ki refleks. Nigdje to nije bilo o\u010ditije nego u njezinoj dugoj i \u010desto iracionalnoj averziji prema nuklearnoj energiji. Pa ipak, povijest ima na\u010din da razotkrije ugodne iluzije. 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