Briefing<\/a> opublikowany niedawno przez Departament Polityki Bud\u017cetowej w Parlamencie Europejskim, dotycz\u0105cy ustawy o kosztach po\u017cyczek d\u0142ugoterminowych zwi\u0105zanych z NGEU, sygnalizuje jego s\u0142abo\u015bci finansowe.<\/p>\nPrzede wszystkim projekcja 10-letnich rentowno\u015bci benchmarkowych dla UE i wybranych emitent\u00f3w pokazuje ca\u0142kowity brak planowania ze strony Unii Europejskiej w odniesieniu do koszt\u00f3w finansowania zewn\u0119trznego, nawet w perspektywie kr\u00f3tkoterminowej: od czerwca 2021 r. do czerwca 2023 r. koszty finansowania zewn\u0119trznego wzros\u0142y bardzo znacz\u0105co, tj. o ponad 3%.<\/p>\n
Z drugiej strony, briefing pokazuje, \u017ce Unia Europejska wykaza\u0142a wyra\u017an\u0105 niewiarygodno\u015b\u0107 na rynkach finansowych jako emitent na du\u017c\u0105 skal\u0119, poniewa\u017c Komisja Europejska og\u0142osi\u0142a zamiar wyemitowania obligacji znacznie przekraczaj\u0105cych kwoty, o kt\u00f3re kraje UE p\u00f3\u017aniej wnioskowa\u0142y o wyp\u0142at\u0119. Mniej ni\u017c po\u0142owa pa\u0144stw cz\u0142onkowskich, a mianowicie trzyna\u015bcie z \u0142\u0105cznej liczby dwudziestu siedmiu, zwr\u00f3ci\u0142o si\u0119 o po\u017cyczki w ramach wsp\u00f3lnego instrumentu po\u017cyczkowego UE.<\/p>\n
W warto\u015bciach bezwzgl\u0119dnych Unia Europejska zamierza po\u017cyczy\u0107 oko\u0142o 421 miliard\u00f3w euro przed ko\u0144cem 2026 roku, aby sfinansowa\u0107 bezzwrotne wsparcie dla pa\u0144stw cz\u0142onkowskich UE. W zwi\u0105zku z tym zar\u00f3wno odsetki, jak i kwota g\u0142\u00f3wna tego d\u0142ugu b\u0119d\u0105 musia\u0142y by\u0107 pokrywane z bud\u017cetu UE od teraz do 2058 r., kiedy to d\u0142ug musi zosta\u0107 w pe\u0142ni sp\u0142acony.<\/p>\n
Briefing sugeruje, \u017ce stopy procentowe pozostan\u0105 wzgl\u0119dnie stabilne do ko\u0144ca 2030 r., a nast\u0119pnie mog\u0105 powoli spada\u0107 i ustabilizowa\u0107 si\u0119 poni\u017cej 2% w d\u0142u\u017cszej perspektywie. Istnieje jednak 50% prawdopodobie\u0144stwo, \u017ce stopa procentowa osi\u0105gnie 3,4% w 2058 roku, w kt\u00f3rym to przypadku koszty finansowania NGEU wzros\u0142yby prawie dwukrotnie w odniesieniu do prognoz zwi\u0105zanych z obecnymi dyskusjami na temat zwi\u0119kszenia bud\u017cetu UE.<\/p>\n
Co gorsza, aby zagwarantowa\u0107 90% prawdopodobie\u0144stwo wysoko\u015bci koszt\u00f3w po\u017cyczek UE w perspektywie d\u0142ugoterminowej do 2058 r., briefing sugeruje potencjalnie maksymaln\u0105 stop\u0119 procentow\u0105 w wysoko\u015bci 6,2%, co oznacza\u0142oby ponad trzykrotno\u015b\u0107 obecnych dyskusji bud\u017cetowych UE.<\/p>\n
Wydaje si\u0119 jasne, \u017ce nast\u0105pi gwa\u0142towny wzrost rocznych koszt\u00f3w odsetkowych przynajmniej przez nast\u0119pne dziesi\u0119\u0107 lat. W scenariuszu umiarkowanym przewidywane roczne i ca\u0142kowite koszty odsetek ponoszone przez UE w 2058 r. wynios\u0142yby 221,8 euro, czyli ponad po\u0142ow\u0119 kapita\u0142u po\u017cyczonego przez UE w celu sfinansowania bezzwrotnego wsparcia dla pa\u0144stw cz\u0142onkowskich UE.<\/p>\n
Sytuacja wygl\u0105da\u0142aby jeszcze gorzej w najgorszym scenariuszu, w kt\u00f3rym \u0142\u0105czne koszty odsetek mog\u0142yby osi\u0105gn\u0105\u0107 410,2 mld euro, czyli zaledwie 100% kapita\u0142u lub podwoi\u0107 \u015brodki po\u017cyczone przez UE na sfinansowanie dotacji dla pa\u0144stw cz\u0142onkowskich UE.<\/p>\n
W sumie briefing sugeruje, \u017ce w ca\u0142ym okresie 2023-2058 bud\u017cet UE najprawdopodobniej b\u0119dzie musia\u0142 wyda\u0107 od 582 mld euro do 715 mld euro na sp\u0142at\u0119 odsetek i zwrot zad\u0142u\u017cenia z tytu\u0142u bezzwrotnego wsparcia dla pa\u0144stw cz\u0142onkowskich w ramach NGEU. Z tego faktu wynikaj\u0105 dwie alternatywy: albo ci\u0119cie funduszy na inne priorytety UE, albo zwi\u0119kszenie bud\u017cetu Unii.<\/p>\n
Druga alternatywa wi\u0105\u017ce si\u0119 z kolejnymi ciemnymi chmurami: w jaki spos\u00f3b ta ekspansja mia\u0142aby zosta\u0107 sfinansowana? Komisja Von der Leyen zaproponowa\u0142a, opr\u00f3cz polemicznego systemu handlu uprawnieniami do emisji dwutlenku w\u0119gla i mechanizmu dostosowywania cen na granicach emisji dwutlenku w\u0119gla, tymczasowy [?] podatek od zysk\u00f3w przedsi\u0119biorstw.<\/p>\n
Nie wiadomo jednak, dlaczego firmy i ich akcjonariusze mieliby p\u0142aci\u0107 za lekkomy\u015blno\u015b\u0107 Unii. Co wi\u0119cej, briefing ostrzega, \u017ce system handlu uprawnieniami do emisji musi ju\u017c finansowa\u0107 inne fundusze UE, wi\u0119c kwota, kt\u00f3ra mog\u0142aby zosta\u0107 wykorzystana do obs\u0142ugi zad\u0142u\u017cenia NGEU, zosta\u0142aby znacznie zmniejszona.<\/p>\n
W obliczu tak oczywistych s\u0142abo\u015bci, nic dziwnego, \u017ce niekt\u00f3re rz\u0105dy krajowe podchodz\u0105 do ca\u0142ego kontekstu z du\u017cym sceptycyzmem.<\/p>\n
\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o zdj\u0119cia: The Spectator<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
W nast\u0119pstwie kryzysu zwi\u0105zanego z COVID-19 Unia Europejska zdecydowa\u0142a si\u0119 rozpocz\u0105\u0107 s\u0142ynny NextGenerationEU (NGEU), program odbudowy po pandemii, kt\u00f3ry musi zosta\u0107 w pe\u0142ni sp\u0142acony do 2058 roku. W samej nazwie programu kryje si\u0119 pewien sarkazm, poniewa\u017c b\u0119dzie on op\u0142acany przez nast\u0119pne pokolenie obywateli pa\u0144stw cz\u0142onkowskich. W szczeg\u00f3lno\u015bci, g\u0142\u00f3wne sp\u0142aty kapita\u0142u rozpoczn\u0105 si\u0119 od 2028 r., […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":14389,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[175,156,159],"tags":[],"editorial-positions":[42],"regions":[],"types":[455],"class_list":["post-14825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eseje","category-handel-i-ekonomia","category-polityka","editorial-positions-focus","types-opinion-pl"],"yoast_head":"\n
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