informare<\/a> publicat\u0103 recent de Departamentul pentru afaceri bugetare din cadrul Parlamentului European, care se refer\u0103 la proiectul de lege privind costurile de \u00eemprumut pe termen lung legate de NGEU, semnaleaz\u0103 sl\u0103biciunile financiare ale acesteia.<\/p>\n\u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, proiec\u021bia randamentelor de referin\u021b\u0103 pe 10 ani pentru UE \u0219i pentru anumi\u021bi emiten\u021bi arat\u0103 o lips\u0103 total\u0103 de planificare din partea Uniunii Europene \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te costurile de \u00eemprumut, chiar \u0219i pe termen scurt: din iunie 2021 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een iunie 2023, costurile de \u00eemprumut au crescut foarte mult, adic\u0103 cu peste 3 %.<\/p>\n
Pe de alt\u0103 parte, informarea demonstreaz\u0103 c\u0103 Uniunea European\u0103 a dat dovad\u0103 de o lips\u0103 clar\u0103 de fiabilitate pe pie\u021bele financiare ca emitent pe scar\u0103 larg\u0103, deoarece Comisia European\u0103 a anun\u021bat inten\u021bia de a emite obliga\u021biuni cu mult peste ceea ce \u021b\u0103rile UE au solicitat ulterior pentru debursare. Mai pu\u021bin de jum\u0103tate dintre statele membre, \u0219i anume treisprezece din totalul de dou\u0103zeci \u0219i \u0219apte, au solicitat \u00eemprumuturi prin intermediul facilit\u0103\u021bii comune de \u00eemprumut a UE.<\/p>\n
\u00cen termeni absolu\u021bi, Uniunea European\u0103 inten\u021bioneaz\u0103 s\u0103 \u00eemprumute aproximativ 421 de miliarde de euro \u00eenainte de sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului 2026 pentru a finan\u021ba sprijinul nerambursabil acordat statelor membre ale UE. Prin urmare, at\u00e2t dob\u00e2nda, c\u00e2t \u0219i principalul acestei datorii vor trebui s\u0103 fie acoperite de la bugetul UE, de acum p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2058, c\u00e2nd datoria trebuie rambursat\u0103 integral.<\/p>\n
Informarea sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 ratele dob\u00e2nzilor vor r\u0103m\u00e2ne relativ stabile p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului 2030, dup\u0103 care ar putea sc\u0103dea lent \u0219i s-ar putea stabiliza sub 2% pe termen lung. Cu toate acestea, exist\u0103 o probabilitate de 50% ca rata dob\u00e2nzii s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la 3,4% \u00een 2058, caz \u00een care costurile de finan\u021bare ale NGEU aproape c\u0103 s-ar dubla \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te previziunile legate de discu\u021biile actuale privind cre\u0219terea bugetului UE.<\/p>\n
Mai r\u0103u dec\u00e2t at\u00e2t, pentru a garanta o probabilitate de 90 % \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te valoarea costurilor de \u00eemprumut ale UE pe termen lung, p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2058, documentul de informare sugereaz\u0103 o rat\u0103 maxim\u0103 a dob\u00e2nzii de 6,2 %, ceea ce ar \u00eensemna mai mult dec\u00e2t triplarea discu\u021biilor actuale privind bugetul UE.<\/p>\n
Ceea ce pare clar este c\u0103 va exista o cre\u0219tere puternic\u0103 a costurilor anuale ale dob\u00e2nzilor cel pu\u021bin \u00een urm\u0103torii zece ani. \u00centr-un scenariu moderat, costurile anuale \u0219i totale ale dob\u00e2nzilor preconizate suportate de UE \u00een 2058 s-ar ridica la 221,8 EUR, adic\u0103 peste jum\u0103tate din capitalul \u00eemprumutat de UE pentru a finan\u021ba sprijinul nerambursabil acordat statelor membre ale UE.<\/p>\n
Situa\u021bia ar ar\u0103ta \u0219i mai r\u0103u \u00een cel mai pesimist scenariu, \u00een care costurile totale cu dob\u00e2nzile ar putea ajunge la 410,2 miliarde de euro, adic\u0103 abia 100% din capital sau dublul fondurilor \u00eemprumutate de UE pentru a finan\u021ba subven\u021biile statelor membre.<\/p>\n
\u00cen total, informarea sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103, cel mai probabil, \u00eentre 582 \u0219i 715 miliarde de euro vor trebui cheltuite \u00eentre 2023 \u0219i 2058 de c\u0103tre bugetul UE pentru a pl\u0103ti dob\u00e2nzile \u0219i pentru a rambursa datoria pentru sprijinul nerambursabil acordat statelor membre \u00een cadrul PNUE. Din acest fapt, rezult\u0103 \u00een mod necesar dou\u0103 alternative: fie reducerea fondurilor pentru alte priorit\u0103\u021bi ale UE, fie extinderea bugetului Uniunii.<\/p>\n
Cea de-a doua alternativ\u0103 implic\u0103 \u0219i mai multe neclarit\u0103\u021bi: cum ar fi finan\u021bat\u0103 aceast\u0103 extindere? Comisia Von der Leyen a propus, pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 polemica schem\u0103 de comercializare a certificatelor de emisii de dioxid de carbon \u0219i mecanismul de ajustare la frontiera de carbon, o tax\u0103 temporar\u0103 [?] pe profiturile companiilor.<\/p>\n
Dar r\u0103m\u00e2ne de v\u0103zut de ce companiile \u0219i ac\u021bionarii acestora ar trebui s\u0103 pl\u0103teasc\u0103 pentru impruden\u021ba Uniunii. \u00cen plus, informarea avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 sistemul de comercializare a certificatelor de emisii trebuie deja s\u0103 finan\u021beze alte fonduri ale UE, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t suma care ar putea fi utilizat\u0103 pentru a pl\u0103ti datoria NGEU ar fi redus\u0103 substan\u021bial.<\/p>\n
Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere aceste sl\u0103biciuni evidente, nu este de mirare c\u0103 unele guverne na\u021bionale privesc \u00eentregul context cu un puternic scepticism.<\/p>\n
Sursa imaginii: The Spectator<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00cen urma crizei Covid-19, Uniunea European\u0103 a decis s\u0103 se lanseze \u00een celebrul NextGenerationEU (NGEU), un program de redresare post-pandemic care trebuie s\u0103 fie rambursat \u00een totalitate p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2058. Exist\u0103 un oarecare sarcasm \u00een \u00eens\u0103\u0219i denumirea programului, deoarece va trebui s\u0103 fie pl\u0103tit\u0103 de urm\u0103toarea genera\u021bie de cet\u0103\u021beni ai statelor membre. \u00cen special, ramburs\u0103rile […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":14390,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[157,184,160],"tags":[],"editorial-positions":[42],"regions":[],"types":[456],"class_list":["post-14835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-comert-si-economie","category-eseuri","category-politica","editorial-positions-focus","types-opinion-ro"],"yoast_head":"\n
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