{"id":2140,"date":"2022-01-17T14:18:57","date_gmt":"2022-01-17T14:18:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/stabilirea-corecta-a-recordului"},"modified":"2022-05-12T09:21:18","modified_gmt":"2022-05-12T09:21:18","slug":"stabilirea-corecta-a-recordului","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/stabilirea-corecta-a-recordului","title":{"rendered":"Stabilirea corect\u0103 a recordului"},"content":{"rendered":"

Unele interpret\u0103ri gre\u0219ite, jum\u0103tate de adev\u0103r \u0219i falsit\u0103\u021bi despre rolul lui David Oddsson \u00een pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii din Islanda din 2008 trebuie corectate…<\/h3>\n

David Oddsson<\/a> a dominat politica islandez\u0103 ca prim-ministru din prim\u0103vara lui 1991 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een toamna lui 2004 \u0219i apoi ca ministru de externe timp de un an. Inevitabil \u0219i-a f\u0103cut mul\u021bi du\u0219mani \u00een aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103, nu \u00een ultimul r\u00e2nd printre intelectualii de st\u00e2nga ale c\u0103ror sfaturi nesolicitate le-a ignorat \u00een mare parte. \u00cen toamna anului 2005, David (cum este \u00eentotdeauna numit \u00een propria sa \u021bar\u0103: \u00een loc de nume de familie, islandezul are patronimice, Oddsson semnific\u00e2nd doar c\u0103 David este fiul lui Oddur) a devenit unul dintre cei trei guvernatori ai B\u0103ncii Centrale a Islandei, CBI \u0219i, prin urmare, a fost sub supravegherea sa c\u0103 \u00eentregul sector bancar islandez sa pr\u0103bu\u0219it \u00een octombrie 2008. Reamintind c\u0103 nu ar trebui s\u0103 la\u0219i niciodat\u0103 o criz\u0103 bun\u0103 s\u0103 se piard\u0103, du\u0219manii lui David au \u00eenceput imediat o campanie \u00eenvinov\u0103\u021bindu-l pentru pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii. \u00cen str\u0103in\u0103tate, ei au avut un succes surprinz\u0103tor, poate pentru c\u0103 au fost pu\u021bine eforturi pentru a-\u0219i corecta interpret\u0103rile gre\u0219ite, adev\u0103rurile pe jum\u0103tate \u0219i, uneori, falsurile simple. Aici voi \u00eencerca s\u0103 clarific recordul cu privire la cele mai importante puncte.<\/p>\n

Revista Time<\/em> \u00eel vin\u0103 pe David<\/h2>\n

Poate c\u0103 cel mai influent denun\u021b al lui David a fost atunci c\u00e2nd Time Magazine<\/em> l-a pus pe o list\u0103 de dou\u0103zeci \u0219i cinci de persoane vinovate pentru criza financiar\u0103 din 2008, cu urm\u0103toarea explica\u021bie:<\/p>\n

\u00cen cele dou\u0103 decenii ale sale ca prim-ministru al Islandei \u0219i apoi ca guvernator al b\u0103ncii centrale, Oddsson a f\u0103cut din \u021bara sa micu\u021b\u0103 un experiment \u00een economia pie\u021bei libere prin privatizarea a trei b\u0103nci principale, plutirea monedei \u0219i promovarea unei epoci de aur a antreprenoriatului. C\u00e2nd pia\u021ba s-a \u00eentors… ui! Economia Islandei este acum un caz manual de colaps macroeconomic. Cele trei b\u0103nci, care au avut un efect de levier masiv, sunt \u00een justi\u021bie, PIB-ul ar putea sc\u0103dea cu 10% \u00een acest an, iar FMI a intervenit dup\u0103 ce moneda \u0219i-a pierdut mai mult de jum\u0103tate din valoare. Frumos experiment.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Exist\u0103 c\u00e2teva inexactit\u0103\u021bi minore \u00een aceast\u0103 scurt\u0103 declara\u021bie. David a fost prim-ministru timp de treisprezece ani \u0219i jum\u0103tate \u0219i unul dintre cei trei guvernatori ai B\u0103ncii Centrale timp de trei ani. \u0218aisprezece ani \u0219i jum\u0103tate nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 dou\u0103 decenii. De asemenea, una dintre cele trei b\u0103nci majore fusese deja privatizat\u0103 \u00een 1990, \u00eentr-adev\u0103r de un guvern de st\u00e2nga, \u00eenainte ca David s\u0103 devin\u0103 prim-ministru.<\/p>\n

Totu\u0219i, nara\u021biunea general\u0103 este gre\u0219it\u0103. David nu a efectuat un experiment de pia\u021b\u0103 liber\u0103 \u00een timpul mandatului s\u0103u ca prim-ministru: pur \u0219i simplu a adus Islanda \u00een conformitate cu alte \u021b\u0103ri din Europa de Vest. Potrivit indicelui de libertate economic\u0103 al Institutului Fraser, economia islandez\u0103 a fost clasat\u0103 pe locul 25 \u00een 1990 \u0219i pe locul 10 \u00een 2005, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 atunci nou\u0103 economii erau mai libere dec\u00e2t cea islandez\u0103. Dac\u0103 pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii a fost cauzat\u0103 de liberalizarea economiei de c\u0103tre David, de ce au sc\u0103pat aceste nou\u0103 economii de soarta Islandei? De asemenea, trebuie men\u021bionat faptul c\u0103, din 1994, Islanda este membr\u0103 a Spa\u021biului Economic European \u0219i c\u0103 pia\u021ba sa financiar\u0103 a func\u021bionat \u00een conformitate cu acelea\u0219i reguli ca \u0219i alte astfel de pie\u021be din SEE.<\/p>\n

B\u0103ncilor islandeze li sa refuzat asisten\u021ba de lichiditate<\/h2>\n

Este adev\u0103rat c\u0103 b\u0103ncile islandeze au fost masiv leviere. Dar la fel au fost b\u0103ncile din alte p\u0103r\u021bi. Diferen\u021ba a fost c\u0103, \u00een criza interna\u021bional\u0103 a creditelor din 2007-2009, b\u0103ncilor islandeze li sa refuzat asisten\u021ba de lichiditate primit\u0103 de alte b\u0103nci. Sectoarele bancare din Sco\u021bia \u0219i Elve\u021bia erau de fapt mai mari propor\u021bional dec\u00e2t sectorul bancar islandez. RBS din Sco\u021bia \u0219i UBS din Elve\u021bia ar fi e\u0219uat ambele dac\u0103 nu ar fi fost asistate de Banca Angliei \u0219i, respectiv, de Sistemul Rezervelor Federale din SUA. Cele trei b\u0103nci centrale scandinave ar putea \u00eencheia tranzac\u021bii de swap de dolari cu Fed-ul SUA, care i-au permis B\u0103ncii Centrale a Danemarcei, de exemplu, s\u0103 salveze Danske Bank, care altfel s-ar fi pr\u0103bu\u0219it. Cu toate acestea, Fed a refuzat s\u0103 \u00eencheie astfel de tranzac\u021bii cu Banca Central\u0103 a Islandei. (Discut despre posibilele motive \u00eentr-un raport<\/a> pe care l-am scris \u00een 2018 pentru Ministerul de Finan\u021be islandez.)<\/p>\n

\u00cen Regatul Unit, guvernul a salvat toate b\u0103ncile, cu excep\u021bia celor dou\u0103 b\u0103nci de\u021binute de islandezi (care pare s\u0103 \u00eencalce regulile SEE privind nediscriminarea). Este interesant c\u0103 acele dou\u0103 b\u0103nci (Heritable \u0219i KSF) s-au dovedit \u00een cele din urm\u0103 a fi solvabile: creditorii lor \u0219i-au recuperat aproape to\u021bi banii, \u00een ciuda proceselor costisitoare de solu\u021bionare. Este, de asemenea, concluzia dintr-un studiu meticulos al colapsului b\u0103ncilor realizat de doi savan\u021bi islandezi, Asgeir Jonsson \u0219i Hersir Sigurgeirsson, c\u0103 activele b\u0103ncilor islandeze nu erau probabil mai slabe dec\u00e2t activele altor b\u0103nci, \u00een medie.<\/p>\n

Redresarea rapid\u0103 a economiei islandeze dup\u0103 pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii este o m\u0103rturie a solidit\u0103\u021bii liberaliz\u0103rii economiei de c\u0103tre David \u00een 1991-2004. De asemenea, a fost esen\u021bial ca, la sfatul s\u0103u, \u00eentr-adev\u0103r insisten\u021ba, \u00een calitate de guvernator CBI, Trezoreria islandez\u0103 s\u0103 nu \u00ee\u0219i asume responsabilitatea pentru datoriile b\u0103ncilor.<\/p>\n

Acuza\u021biile pentru neglijen\u021b\u0103<\/h2>\n

Nu se poate nega faptul c\u0103 b\u0103ncile islandeze au fost nes\u0103buite, mai ales \u00een expansiunea lor rapid\u0103 \u00een 2003\u20132005, cu mult peste capacitatea B\u0103ncii Centrale a Islandei \u0219i a Trezoreriei islandeze de a le salva \u00eentr-o posibil\u0103 criz\u0103 a creditului. Este totu\u0219i ironic s\u0103-l \u00eenvinov\u0103\u021bim pe David Oddsson pentru impruden\u021ba lor, deoarece at\u00e2t ca prim-ministru, c\u00e2t \u0219i ca guvernator CBI, el a fost destul de critic la adresa bancherilor, iar \u00een 2007\u20132008 \u0219i-a avertizat \u00een mod repetat fo\u0219tii colegi de la guvern c\u0103 b\u0103ncile ar putea e\u0219ua. Ei au luat \u00een serios avertismentele lui, dar erau foarte pu\u021bine lucruri pe care Banca Central\u0103 sau guvernul puteau face. Banca Central\u0103 putea tip\u0103ri coroane, dar nu dolari sau euro \u0219i, dup\u0103 cum sa men\u021bionat deja, i-au fost refuzate acelea\u0219i tranzac\u021bii de swap \u00een dolari pe care b\u0103ncile centrale scandinave le-au \u00eencheiat cu Fed-ul american. Guvernul nu a putut for\u021ba b\u0103ncile s\u0103 reduc\u0103 dimensiunea \u0219i oricum era greu de fezabil dup\u0103 ce a \u00eenceput criza interna\u021bional\u0103 a creditelor, la jum\u0103tatea anului 2007. Este mai u\u0219or de spus dec\u00e2t de f\u0103cut s\u0103 vinzi active \u00een timpul unei crize financiare. E\u0219ti al naibii dac\u0103 o faci; e\u0219ti al naibii dac\u0103 nu o faci.<\/p>\n

O Comisie Special\u0103 de Investiga\u021bie care a fost numit\u0103 dup\u0103 pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii a ar\u0103tat o \u00een\u021belegere slab\u0103 a acestei dileme. \u00cen schimb, s-a angajat \u00een pedanteria birocratic\u0103. Un intelectual de st\u00e2nga vocal, profesorul Stefan Olafsson, scrie:<\/p>\n

Una dintre principalele concluzii ale raportului Comitetului Special de Investigare al Althingi privind c\u0103derea b\u0103ncilor (SIC) a fost c\u0103 autorit\u0103\u021bile de reglementare (Banca Central\u0103 a Islandei \u0219i Autoritatea de Supraveghere Financiar\u0103) nu \u0219i-au \u00eendeplinit \u00een mod grav atribu\u021biile. De fapt, guvernatorii acestor institu\u021bii (inclusiv David Oddsson, cel mai influent politician neoliberal) au fost g\u0103si\u021bi vinova\u021bi de neglijen\u021b\u0103 grav\u0103 de c\u0103tre Comitet.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Acest lucru este foarte \u00een\u0219el\u0103tor. \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, Banca Central\u0103 nu era autoritatea de reglementare a b\u0103ncilor, ci doar Autoritatea de Supraveghere Financiar\u0103. \u00cen al doilea r\u00e2nd, \u00een versiunea \u00een limba englez\u0103 a raportului s\u0103u, SIC a vorbit despre neglijen\u021b\u0103, dar nu despre neglijen\u021b\u0103 grav\u0103. \u00cen al treilea r\u00e2nd, trebuie men\u021bionat c\u0103 aceasta a fost neglijen\u021b\u0103 \u00een sensul unei legi adoptate cu privire la SIC la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului 2008, dup\u0103 pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii. Cu alte cuvinte, acesta a fost un exemplu de regul\u0103 retroactiv\u0103. \u00cen plus, cei trei membri ai SIC au primit imunitate special\u0103 \u00een fa\u021ba proceselor, ceea ce a \u00eensemnat c\u0103 persoanele nemul\u021bumite de tratamentul lor de c\u0103tre SIC au fost private de dreptul lor constitu\u021bional la o audiere echitabil\u0103 \u0219i public\u0103 de c\u0103tre un tribunal independent \u0219i impar\u021bial. At\u00e2t stipula\u021bia retroactiv\u0103, c\u00e2t \u0219i imunitatea juridic\u0103 a SIC au fost \u00eempotriva statului de drept, a\u0219a cum este \u00een\u021beles \u00een general \u00een Occident.<\/p>\n

Decizii rezonabile, dar f\u0103r\u0103 prea multe documente<\/h2>\n

Cu toate acestea, merit\u0103 s\u0103 arunc\u0103m o privire mai atent\u0103 asupra acuza\u021biilor speciale de neglijen\u021b\u0103<\/a> \u00eempotriva celor trei guvernatori ai B\u0103ncii Centrale. De fapt, din moment ce erau trei dintre ei, ceilal\u021bi doi guvernatori \u2013 ambii economi\u0219ti preg\u0103ti\u021bi cu mult\u0103 experien\u021b\u0103 \u2013 l-ar fi putut anula pe David Oddsson dac\u0103 nu ar fi fost de acord cu el, ceea ce nu au f\u0103cut-o. SIC a concluzionat c\u0103 guvernatorii au fost neglijen\u021bi \u00een dou\u0103 cazuri. \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, c\u00e2nd au refuzat o cerere a Landsbanki \u00een august 2008 pentru o facilitate special\u0103 de credit \u00een valut\u0103, ar fi trebuit s\u0103 solicite mai multe informa\u021bii despre pasivele reale ale b\u0103ncii. \u00cen al doilea r\u00e2nd, c\u00e2nd au refuzat o cerere a lui Glitnir \u00een septembrie 2008 pentru un \u00eemprumut de urgen\u021b\u0103, sf\u0103tuind guvernul s\u0103 cumpere o ac\u021biune de control la banc\u0103 pentru aceea\u0219i sum\u0103 de bani, ar fi trebuit s\u0103 solicite \u0219i mai multe informa\u021bii despre situa\u021bia b\u0103ncii. pasive reale. \u00cen mod crucial, \u00eens\u0103, SIC nu a considerat c\u0103 cele dou\u0103 decizii erau nerezonabile, ci doar c\u0103 ar fi trebuit sus\u021binute de mai multe documente. Dar aceste dou\u0103 acuza\u021bii au fost at\u00e2t de pedante \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103 fie risible. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, mini\u0219trii de finan\u021be \u0219i bancherii centrali din \u00eentreaga lume luau decizii prin telefon, adesea \u00een decurs de c\u00e2teva minute, cu privire la cump\u0103rarea \u0219i v\u00e2nzarea activelor bancare \u0219i crearea de facilit\u0103\u021bi de credit. Uneori, pre\u021bul p\u0103rea a fi destul de arbitrar. De exemplu, guvernul SUA a organizat preluarea de c\u0103tre JP Morgan Chase a Bear Sterns pentru 2 dolari pe ac\u021biune, dar la audierea pl\u00e2ngerilor, cump\u0103r\u0103torul a schimbat rapid pre\u021bul la 10 dolari pe ac\u021biune.<\/p>\n

\u00cen mod evident, SIC a \u00eencercat din greu s\u0103 g\u0103seasc\u0103 ceva demn de vin\u0103 la David Oddsson \u0219i, implicit, la cei doi colegi ai s\u0103i. Dup\u0103 s\u0103p\u0103turi timp de \u0219aisprezece luni, cu un buget generos \u0219i acces la toate documentele relevante, singurele dou\u0103 cazuri cu care s-au putut \u00eent\u00e2mpina \u00eempotriva guvernan\u021bilor CBI au fost pl\u00e2ngeri privind lipsa documentelor care s\u0103 sus\u021bin\u0103 deciziile considerate \u00een sine a fi rezonabile. Acesta a fost \u00eentr-adev\u0103r un exemplu de mun\u021bi \u00een travaliu \u0219i de na\u0219tere a unui \u0219oarece prostesc.<\/p>\n

David merit\u0103 lauda, nu vina<\/h2>\n

David merit\u0103 mai degrab\u0103 laude dec\u00e2t vina pentru rolul s\u0103u \u00een pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii. Este bine documentat \u00een raportul SIC cum el \u0219i colegii s\u0103i au avertizat \u00een mod repetat \u00een privat \u00eempotriva posibilelor faliment\u0103ri ale b\u0103ncilor. Este, de asemenea, documentat acolo c\u0103 au sugerat bancherilor ca cea mai mare banc\u0103, Kaupthing, s\u0103-\u0219i mute sediul \u00een str\u0103in\u0103tate, ca Glitnir s\u0103-\u0219i v\u00e2nd\u0103 marea subsidiar\u0103 norvegian\u0103 \u0219i c\u0103 Landsbanki s\u0103-\u0219i transfere conturile Icesave din Regatul Unit \u0219i \u021a\u0103rile de Jos dintr-un sucursal\u0103 c\u0103tre o filial\u0103. Acest lucru ar fi redus probabil la jum\u0103tate pasivele totale ale sectorului bancar islandez. De asemenea, a facilitat un r\u0103spuns adecvat la pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii, care \u00een timpul mandatului lui David ca prim-ministru, datoria public\u0103 fusese aproape eliminat\u0103. \u00cen mod surprinz\u0103tor (sau poate deloc surprinz\u0103tor), SIC i-a acordat lui David pu\u021bin sau deloc credit pentru toate acestea. Dar cel mai important, \u00een 2008, Banca Central\u0103 a preg\u0103tit \u00een lini\u0219te un plan de urgen\u021b\u0103 conform c\u0103ruia Islanda ar fi \u00eenchis\u0103: panica ar fi evitat\u0103 d\u00e2nd prioritate deponen\u021bilor fa\u021b\u0103 de al\u021bi creditori b\u0103nci; b\u0103ncile ar fi puse \u00een rezolu\u021bie, iar opera\u021biunile lor interne ar fi preluate de noi b\u0103nci; Trezoreria nu \u0219i-ar asuma nicio responsabilitate financiar\u0103 pentru b\u0103nci. Acesta a fost planul pe care David l-a prezentat guvernului la o \u00eent\u00e2lnire istoric\u0103 din 30 septembrie 2008. Mini\u0219trilor guvernamentali le-a luat aproximativ o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 s\u0103-\u0219i dea seama c\u00e2t de grav\u0103 era situa\u021bia. \u00centr-adev\u0103r, c\u00e2nd unii mini\u0219tri au \u0219ov\u0103it, Banca Central\u0103 a \u00eenchiriat un avion privat pentru a aduce exper\u021bi de la JP Morgan \u00een Islanda \u0219i au reu\u0219it \u00een primele ore ale zilei de 6 octombrie s\u0103-i conving\u0103 pe ultimii sceptici din guvern de necesitatea adopt\u0103rii planului lui David, care s-a dovedit \u00een cele din urm\u0103. a avea destul succes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Unele interpret\u0103ri gre\u0219ite, jum\u0103tate de adev\u0103r \u0219i falsit\u0103\u021bi despre rolul lui David Oddsson \u00een pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii din Islanda din 2008 trebuie corectate… David Oddsson a dominat politica islandez\u0103 ca prim-ministru din prim\u0103vara lui 1991 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een toamna lui 2004 \u0219i apoi ca ministru de externe timp de un an. Inevitabil \u0219i-a f\u0103cut mul\u021bi du\u0219mani \u00een […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":2032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[157,160],"tags":[],"editorial-positions":[42],"regions":[],"types":[456],"class_list":["post-2140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-comert-si-economie","category-politica","editorial-positions-focus","types-opinion-ro"],"yoast_head":"\nStabilirea corect\u0103 a recordului - The Conservative<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/stabilirea-corecta-a-recordului\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stabilirea corect\u0103 a recordului - The Conservative\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Unele interpret\u0103ri gre\u0219ite, jum\u0103tate de adev\u0103r \u0219i falsit\u0103\u021bi despre rolul lui David Oddsson \u00een pr\u0103bu\u0219irea b\u0103ncii din Islanda din 2008 trebuie corectate… David Oddsson a dominat politica islandez\u0103 ca prim-ministru din prim\u0103vara lui 1991 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een toamna lui 2004 \u0219i apoi ca ministru de externe timp de un an. 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