{"id":27890,"date":"2024-05-28T06:53:29","date_gmt":"2024-05-28T06:53:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures"},"modified":"2024-05-28T06:53:29","modified_gmt":"2024-05-28T06:53:29","slug":"va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures","title":{"rendered":"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 alegerile pentru Parlamentul European vor avea loc \u00een perioada 6-9 iunie 2024, merit\u0103 s\u0103 arunc\u0103m o privire la ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00een Statele Unite. Este aproape sigur c\u0103 cei doi candida\u021bi principali la pre\u0219edin\u021bie vor fi pre\u0219edintele Joe Biden \u0219i fostul pre\u0219edinte Donald Trump. De asemenea, este probabil ca Trump s\u0103 \u00eel \u00eenving\u0103 pe Biden, \u00een ciuda tuturor problemelor sale juridice \u0219i a comportamentului s\u0103u extraordinar \u00een public. Biden pare a fi inapt din punct de vedere fizic pentru a fi pre\u0219edinte. \u00ce\u0219i poart\u0103 cei 82 de ani cu mult mai mult\u0103 \u00eencordare dec\u00e2t Trump cei 78 de ani ai s\u0103i. Dar de ce un politician at\u00e2t de controversat \u0219i atipic precum Trump ar fi un posibil viitor pre\u0219edinte al Statelor Unite? B\u0103tr\u00e2nul Hegel spunea c\u0103 ceea ce este ra\u021bional este real \u0219i c\u0103 ceea ce este real este ra\u021bional. Ceea ce a vrut s\u0103 spun\u0103 prin aceast\u0103 afirma\u021bie adesea ne\u00een\u021beleas\u0103 a fost c\u0103 trebuie s\u0103 \u00eencerc\u0103m s\u0103 \u00een\u021belegem realitatea \u00een loc s\u0103 \u021binem discursuri \u00eempotriva ei, ca s\u0103 nu mai vorbim de a striga la ea. Oamenii care probabil vor vota pentru Trump nu pot fi ignora\u021bi sau respin\u0219i ca fiind &#8222;deplorabili&#8221;, \u00een cuvintele infame ale lui Hillary Clinton. Am v\u0103zut <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/11\/opinion\/columnists\/donald-trump-election.html\">trei explica\u021bii plauzibile<\/a> pentru sus\u021binerea de care se bucur\u0103 Trump, iar aici voi ad\u0103uga dou\u0103 conjecturi despre aceasta pe care nu le-am v\u0103zut \u00een alt\u0103 parte.<\/p>\n<h3>Imigra\u021bia ilegal\u0103<\/h3>\n<p>Prima dintre cele trei explica\u021bii plauzibile pentru atractivitatea lui Trump este imigra\u021bia ilegal\u0103. Argumentul economic \u00een favoarea imigra\u021biei legale este puternic. \u00censeamn\u0103 s\u0103 primim oameni care sunt dispu\u0219i s\u0103 munceasc\u0103 \u0219i de care este adesea mare nevoie. Cu toate acestea, nicio \u021bar\u0103 nu poate sau nu va accepta o imigra\u021bie \u00een mas\u0103 necontrolat\u0103 \u0219i ilegal\u0103, mai ales dac\u0103 imigran\u021bii provin dintr-o cultur\u0103 total diferit\u0103 \u0219i au probleme de asimilare. Mentorul meu intelectual, Friedrich A. von Hayek, a avut dreptate c\u00e2nd a sus\u021binut \u00eencerc\u0103rile lui Margaret Thatcher de a controla imigra\u021bia \u00een Marea Britanie. &#8222;De\u0219i a\u0219tept cu ner\u0103bdare, ca ideal final, o stare de lucruri \u00een care grani\u021bele na\u021bionale s\u0103 \u00eenceteze s\u0103 mai fie obstacole \u00een calea liberei circula\u021bii a oamenilor&#8221;, scria Hayek \u00een <em>The Times<\/em>  la 11 februarie 1978: &#8222;Cred c\u0103, \u00een orice perioad\u0103 de care ne putem ocupa acum, orice \u00eencercare de a o realiza ar duce la o rena\u0219tere a unor puternice sentimente na\u021bionaliste&#8221;. Situa\u021bia haotic\u0103 de la grani\u021ba de sud a Statelor Unite \u00een timpul pre\u0219edin\u021biei Biden pare s\u0103 justifice unele dintre \u00eengrijor\u0103rile pe care le aveau sus\u021bin\u0103torii lui Trump atunci c\u00e2nd l-au votat \u00een 2016.<\/p><div class='related_content'><span>RELATED<\/span><ul><li><a href='https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/europa-dupa-orban-de-ce-schimbarea-politica-din-ungaria-ar-putea-redefini-extinderea-ue'>Europa dup\u0103 Orb\u00e1n: De ce schimbarea politic\u0103 din Ungaria ar putea redefini extinderea UE<\/li><\/a><li><a href='https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/sanchez-il-descopera-pe-meloni-iar-stanga-se-preface-ca-nu-observa'>S\u00e1nchez \u00eel descoper\u0103 pe Meloni (iar st\u00e2nga se preface c\u0103 nu observ\u0103)<\/li><\/a><li><a href='https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/islanda-swing-la-dreapta'>Islanda: Swing la dreapta<\/li><\/a><\/ul><\/div>\n<p>Imigra\u021bia ilegal\u0103 este o problem\u0103 \u0219i mai mare \u00een Europa, deoarece majoritatea persoanelor care \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 intre \u00een Statele Unite din Mexic sunt capabile \u0219i dispuse s\u0103 munceasc\u0103, \u00een timp ce \u00een Europa unii imigran\u021bi provin din culturi care nu apreciaz\u0103 munca \u0219i respectarea legii la fel de mult ca majoritatea europenilor. Am <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/palestinian-asylum-seekers-ask-the-danes\">scris<\/a> despre cei 321 de palestinieni care au intrat ilegal \u00een Danemarca \u00een 1991. Cererile lor de azil au fost respinse, dar o majoritate de st\u00e2nga din Parlamentul danez a trecut peste autorit\u0103\u021bi \u0219i le-a acordat azil. Acum, mai mult de treizeci de ani mai t\u00e2rziu, aproape dou\u0103 treimi dintre ei au fost condamna\u021bi pentru o infrac\u021biune penal\u0103, iar 71 dintre ei au fost condamna\u021bi la \u00eenchisoare. Mai mult de jum\u0103tate dintre ei tr\u0103iesc de pe urma guvernului, dup\u0103 ce s-au &#8222;pensionat anticipat&#8221;, un eufemism pentru a spune c\u0103 nu mai pot fi angaja\u021bi. Aceasta este o dovad\u0103 anecdotic\u0103, dar \u00eenregistr\u0103rile arat\u0103 c\u0103, \u00een general, cele dou\u0103 grupuri de imigran\u021bi cu cea mai mare rat\u0103 a criminalit\u0103\u021bii \u00een \u021b\u0103rile nordice sunt palestinienii \u0219i sirienii, nu pentru c\u0103 ar fi oameni mai r\u0103i dec\u00e2t al\u021bii, ci din motive culturale. \u00cen unele ora\u0219e scandinave exist\u0103 cartiere mari populate aproape exclusiv de imigran\u021bi care primesc ajutoare sociale, majoritatea din \u021b\u0103ri musulmane.<\/p>\n<p>De\u0219i Hayek nu a fost el \u00eensu\u0219i un na\u021bionalist, a recunoscut posibilitatea ca imigra\u021bia \u00een mas\u0103 s\u0103 provoace ostilitate fa\u021b\u0103 de str\u0103ini. \u00cen volumul II al lucr\u0103rii sale <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Legislation-Liberty-Collected-Works-Hayek\/dp\/022678195X\/\"><em>Law, Legislation and Liberty<\/em><\/a>, el a scris (p. 58):<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Oric\u00e2t de mult ar accepta omul modern \u00een principiu idealul c\u0103 acelea\u0219i reguli ar trebui s\u0103 se aplice tuturor oamenilor, de fapt, el \u00eel recunoa\u0219te doar celor pe care \u00eei consider\u0103 asem\u0103n\u0103tori cu el \u00eensu\u0219i \u0219i \u00eenva\u021b\u0103 doar \u00eencet-\u00eencet s\u0103 extind\u0103 gama celor pe care \u00eei accept\u0103 ca fiind asem\u0103n\u0103tori cu el. Legisla\u021bia nu poate face mare lucru pentru a accelera acest proces \u0219i poate face multe pentru a-l inversa, trezind sentimente care sunt deja \u00een declin.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A revenit la imigra\u021bie \u00een volumul III (p. 195):<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Libertatea de migra\u021bie este unul dintre principiile liberalismului larg acceptate \u0219i absolut admirabile. Dar ar trebui ca acest lucru s\u0103 dea, \u00een general, str\u0103inului dreptul de a se stabili \u00eentr-o comunitate \u00een care nu este binevenit? Are vreo preten\u021bie s\u0103 i se dea un loc de munc\u0103 sau s\u0103 i se v\u00e2nd\u0103 o cas\u0103 dac\u0103 niciun locuitor nu este dispus s\u0103 fac\u0103 acest lucru? \u00cen mod clar, ar trebui s\u0103 aib\u0103 dreptul de a accepta un loc de munc\u0103 sau de a cump\u0103ra o cas\u0103 dac\u0103 i se ofer\u0103. Dar au locuitorii individuali datoria de a le oferi vreuna dintre ele? Sau ar trebui s\u0103 fie o infrac\u021biune dac\u0103 ace\u0219tia sunt de acord \u00een mod voluntar s\u0103 nu fac\u0103 acest lucru? Satele elve\u021biene \u0219i tiroleze au un mod de a \u021bine la distan\u021b\u0103 str\u0103inii care nu \u00eencalc\u0103 \u0219i nici nu se bazeaz\u0103 pe vreo lege. Este acest lucru anti-liberal sau justificat din punct de vedere moral? \u00cen cazul comunit\u0103\u021bilor vechi, nu am r\u0103spunsuri sigure la aceste \u00eentreb\u0103ri.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Hayek a anticipat ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 acum at\u00e2t \u00een America de Nord, c\u00e2t \u0219i \u00een Europa. \u00cen timp ce eu personal \u00eei salut pe imigran\u021bii care muncesc din greu \u0219i respect\u0103 legea, cu siguran\u021b\u0103 nu sunt singurul care refuz\u0103 s\u0103 accepte \u00een \u021b\u0103rile noastre poten\u021biali infractori, vagabonzi sau fanatici religio\u0219i.<\/p>\n<h3>\u00cencredere \u0219i pesimism<\/h3>\n<p>A doua explica\u021bie plauzibil\u0103 pentru sus\u021binerea lui Trump este o ne\u00eencredere generalizat\u0103 \u00een institu\u021biile \u0219i elitele care au guvernat \u00een mare parte Statele Unite. Aleg\u0103torii obi\u0219nui\u021bi simt, cu oarecare justificare, c\u0103 universit\u0103\u021bile \u0219i mass-media, inclusiv social media, \u0219i chiar institu\u021bii venerabile precum F.B.I. \u0219i C.I.A., au fost preluate de st\u00e2ngi\u0219ti sau cel pu\u021bin de adversari dedica\u021bi lui Trump \u0219i Partidului Republican. De exemplu, mai mult de cincizeci de fo\u0219ti ofi\u021beri de informa\u021bii de rang \u00eenalt au semnat o scrisoare \u00een octombrie 2020, chiar \u00eenainte de alegerile preziden\u021biale, potrivit c\u0103reia cazul Hunter Biden, expus de <em>New York Post<\/em>, avea &#8222;toate semnele clasice ale unei opera\u021biuni de informa\u021bii ruse\u0219ti&#8221;. At\u00e2t Twitter, c\u00e2t \u0219i Facebook au \u0219ters toate referin\u021bele la acest caz, \u00een timp ce contul de Twitter al <em>New York Post<\/em> a fost blocat. Dar fo\u0219tii ofi\u021beri de informa\u021bii \u0219i personalul de pe re\u021belele de socializare s-au \u00een\u0219elat. Rapoartele din <em>New York Post<\/em> despre acest caz s-au dovedit a fi mai mult sau mai pu\u021bin corecte, indiferent de ceea ce se poate crede despre relevan\u021ba sa politic\u0103. Aleg\u0103torii obi\u0219nui\u021bi resping, de asemenea, \u00eencerc\u0103rile recente ale procurorilor \u0219i judec\u0103torilor democra\u021bi de a-l distruge pe Trump prin intermediul sistemului juridic. Comportamentul lui Trump \u00een timpul revoltei din 6 ianuarie 2021 de la Washington a fost deplorabil, dar nu a existat nicio tentativ\u0103 sistematic\u0103 din partea sa de a r\u0103sturna guvernul Statelor Unite.<\/p>\n<p>Cea de-a treia explica\u021bie plauzibil\u0103 pentru sus\u021binerea lui Trump este pesimismul cu privire la viitor. A existat \u0219i exist\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 un sentiment larg r\u0103sp\u00e2ndit c\u0103 America \u0219i-a pierdut calea. Ea trebuie s\u0103 fie f\u0103cut\u0103 &#8222;m\u0103rea\u021b\u0103 din nou&#8221;, a\u0219a cum a exclamat Trump \u00een 2016. Demograful Nicholas Eberstadt a publicat \u00een 2017 o influent\u0103  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commentary.org\/articles\/nicholas-eberstadt\/our-miserable-21st-century\/\">eseu<\/a>  \u00een revista  <em>Comentariu<\/em>  \u00een care a remarcat o cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 slab\u0103 \u0219i o rat\u0103 de participare a for\u021bei de munc\u0103 \u00een sc\u0103dere, combinate cu o rat\u0103 de mortalitate \u00een cre\u0219tere \u00een r\u00e2ndul popula\u021biei albe de v\u00e2rst\u0103 mijlocie, par\u021bial cauzat\u0103 de o cre\u0219tere brusc\u0103 a deceselor cauzate de sinucidere, alcoolism \u0219i dependen\u021b\u0103 de droguri. Trump a pus aceast\u0103 evolu\u021bie pe seama globalismului, a comer\u021bului liber interna\u021bional, afirm\u00e2nd c\u0103 China ia locurile de munc\u0103 de la muncitorii americani. \u00cen consecin\u021b\u0103, a cerut cre\u0219terea tarifelor. De\u0219i Trump l-a invocat adesea pe Ronald Reagan, probabil c\u0103 nu a citit lucr\u0103rile lui Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Bastiat, a\u0219a cum <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/2015\/02\/ronald-reagans-free-market-mentors-john-fund\/\">a f\u0103cut-o Reagan<\/a>. Bastiat <a href=\"https:\/\/mises.org\/articles-interest\/which-seen-and-which-not-seen\">demonstrase<\/a> \u00een mod clar c\u0103 este o eroare protec\u021bionist\u0103. Dac\u0103 este mai ieftin s\u0103 cumperi bunuri din str\u0103in\u0103tate dec\u00e2t s\u0103 le produci pe plan local, banii astfel economisi\u021bi vor fi folosi\u021bi \u00een alte scopuri, cre\u00e2nd cerere pentru noi locuri de munc\u0103 locale. Ceea ce <em>s-a v\u0103zut<\/em> a fost pur \u0219i simplu pierderea unor locuri de munc\u0103 locale. Ceea ce <em>nu s-a v\u0103zut<\/em> a fost c\u0103 s-au creat mai multe locuri de munc\u0103 locale dec\u00e2t s-au pierdut. Cu toate acestea, Trump a avut, desigur, un punct de vedere politic. \u00cen unele zone, ar putea exista un decalaj \u00eentre pierderea unor locuri de munc\u0103 din cauza concuren\u021bei din str\u0103in\u0103tate \u0219i crearea de noi locuri de munc\u0103 ca urmare a cre\u0219terii eficien\u021bei.<\/p>\n<h3>Prima conjectura: Alienarea masculin\u0103<\/h3>\n<p>Primele dou\u0103 explica\u021bii ale atrac\u021biei exercitate de Trump asupra aleg\u0103torilor americani, opozi\u021bia fa\u021b\u0103 de imigra\u021bia ilegal\u0103 \u0219i ne\u00eencrederea \u00een institu\u021biile \u0219i elitele dominante, mi se pare c\u0103 surprind cel pu\u021bin o parte din adev\u0103r. Aleg\u0103torii vor s\u0103 trimit\u0103 un mesaj, iar Trump vorbe\u0219te \u00een numele multora dintre ei \u00een felul s\u0103u necizelat (probabil inten\u021bionat \u00eentr-un mod necizelat, pentru c\u0103 nu este un prost). Dar cea de-a treia explica\u021bie men\u021bionat\u0103 adesea trebuie revizuit\u0103. Nu globalismul este cel care cauzeaz\u0103 triste\u021bea din America, de\u0219i este posibil ca liberul schimb interna\u021bional s\u0103 afecteze \u00een mod negativ unii muncitori albi necalifica\u021bi de v\u00e2rst\u0103 mijlocie, cu o voin\u021b\u0103 sau o capacitate limitat\u0103 de a se adapta la noile circumstan\u021be, \u00een special \u00een a\u0219a-numita &#8222;centur\u0103 de rugin\u0103&#8221;. Dar locurile de munc\u0103 sunt acolo. Se creeaz\u0103 mai multe locuri de munc\u0103 dec\u00e2t se pierd, iar imigran\u021bii accept\u0103 cu pl\u0103cere locuri de munc\u0103 pe care al\u021bi muncitori le resping. A\u0219 sugera o alt\u0103 explica\u021bie a inadapt\u0103rii evidente a muncitorilor albi necalifica\u021bi de v\u00e2rst\u0103 mijlocie, care se exprim\u0103 prin rata ridicat\u0103 a sinuciderilor, alcoolismului \u0219i dependen\u021bei de droguri \u00een acest grup. Aceast\u0103 explica\u021bie este o diferen\u021b\u0103 de gen emergent\u0103. S\u0103 presupunem c\u0103 abilitatea general\u0103 de a face fa\u021b\u0103 vie\u021bii este distribuit\u0103 \u00een mod egal <em>\u00eentre<\/em> cele dou\u0103 sexe. Dar distribu\u021bia abilit\u0103\u021bilor <em>\u00een cadrul<\/em> fiec\u0103ruia dintre cele dou\u0103 sexe este diferit\u0103, dup\u0103 cum au ar\u0103tat numeroase <a href=\"https:\/\/www.americanscientist.org\/article\/the-most-dangerous-equation\">studii<\/a>. &#8222;Curba clopotului&#8221; pentru femei este mult mai abrupt\u0103 dec\u00e2t pentru b\u0103rba\u021bi, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 exist\u0103 mai mul\u021bi b\u0103rba\u021bi care sunt aberan\u021bi, fie cu abilit\u0103\u021bi excep\u021bionale (antreprenori, inovatori, aventurieri, exploratori), fie cu o lips\u0103 excep\u021bional\u0103 de abilit\u0103\u021bi (lene\u0219i \u0219i criminali). Comportamentul femeilor este \u00eens\u0103 mult mai normal. (Desigur, acestea sunt generaliz\u0103ri, cu multe excep\u021bii individuale.)<\/p>\n<p>Distribu\u021bia diferit\u0103 a abilit\u0103\u021bilor \u00een cadrul celor dou\u0103 sexe explic\u0103 de ce \u00een prezent mai multe femei dec\u00e2t b\u0103rba\u021bi absolv\u0103 universit\u0103\u021bile. Sunt mai r\u0103bd\u0103tori, mai punctuali \u0219i mai s\u00e2rguincio\u0219i, pur \u0219i simplu mai normali. Ele se identific\u0103 cu sistemul de educa\u021bie pentru c\u0103 este condus de femei pentru femei. Majoritatea profesorilor sunt femei \u0219i exist\u0103 o tendin\u021b\u0103 de a descuraja ceea ce \u00eenainte era considerat a fi virtu\u021bi masculine. Acest lucru explic\u0103, de asemenea, de ce 90% dintre de\u021binu\u021bii din \u00eenchisori sunt b\u0103rba\u021bi, de ce 85% dintre sinucideri sunt comise de b\u0103rba\u021bi \u0219i de ce 80% dintre cei care solicit\u0103 tratament pentru alcoolism \u0219i abuz de droguri sunt b\u0103rba\u021bi. (Cifrele sunt similare \u00een alte \u021b\u0103ri occidentale.) Dar, \u00een vremurile bune \u0219i rele, cei care se aflau pe partea gre\u0219it\u0103 a curbei Bell au reu\u0219it adesea s\u0103 g\u0103seasc\u0103 femei mai inteligente care s\u0103 le conduc\u0103 via\u021ba. Acum, astfel de femei, libere de presiunea de a se c\u0103s\u0103tori, nu prea sunt interesate de ace\u0219ti b\u0103rba\u021bi. \u00cen consecin\u021b\u0103, sunt \u0219omeri sau subocupa\u021bi, petrec\u00e2ndu-\u0219i majoritatea timpului \u00een tricouri albe, b\u00e2nd bere \u0219i uit\u00e2ndu-se la meciuri de fotbal sau juc\u00e2nd jocuri video, neb\u0103rbieri\u021bi \u0219i acoperi\u021bi de tatuaje. Nu este surprinz\u0103tor faptul c\u0103 acestea sunt adesea destul de nefericite. \u0218i chiar \u0219i cei care se situeaz\u0103 pe partea dreapt\u0103 a curbei lui Bell sunt uneori descuraja\u021bi, deoarece simt c\u0103 abilit\u0103\u021bile lor speciale, virtu\u021bile masculine, sunt reprimate: curajul, puterea, ambi\u021bia, competitivitatea \u0219i dorin\u021ba de a se distinge de mul\u021bime \u0219i de a-\u0219i ap\u0103ra convingerile. (Acest lucru poate explica impactul extraordinar pe care psihologul canadian <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jordanbpeterson.com\/\">Jordan Peterson<\/a> l-a avut asupra multor tineri inteligen\u021bi.) Conjectura mea este c\u0103 aceste dou\u0103 tipuri de b\u0103rba\u021bi aberan\u021bi tind s\u0103 voteze mai degrab\u0103 pentru Trump dec\u00e2t pentru Biden.<\/p>\n<h3>A doua conjectura: Resentimentele fa\u021b\u0103 de veniturile ne\u00eencasate<\/h3>\n<p>Am dat peste un alt fapt pu\u021bin men\u021bionat, dar uimitor, c\u00e2nd am citit o <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/the-myth-of-american-inequality\">carte remarcabil\u0103<\/a> a senatorului Phil Gramm \u0219i a doi dintre asocia\u021bii s\u0103i, <em>The Myth of American Inequality<\/em>. Dac\u0103 gospod\u0103riile americane sunt \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bite \u00een func\u021bie de venituri \u00een cinci grupe de dimensiuni egale, quintile, persoanele din ultima quintil\u0103 tind s\u0103 lucreze mult mai pu\u021bin dec\u00e2t cele din celelalte patru quintile. Jum\u0103tate dintre adul\u021bii din acest grup sunt pensionari, \u00een timp ce dintre cei afla\u021bi la v\u00e2rsta de munc\u0103 (\u00eentre 18 \u0219i 65 de ani, \u0219i care nu sunt nici studen\u021bi, nici pensionari) doar 36% lucreaz\u0103, iar dintre cei care lucreaz\u0103, ace\u0219tia lucreaz\u0103 \u00een medie doar 17,3 ore pe s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103, mai pu\u021bin de jum\u0103tate din num\u0103rul mediu de ore pe care \u00eel au lucr\u0103torii din celelalte quintile. Dar aici intervine un fapt uimitor: dac\u0103 se includ transferurile \u0219i pl\u0103\u021bile de impozite, persoanele din a doua cea mai s\u0103rac\u0103 quintil\u0103 au un venit cu doar 9% mai mare dec\u00e2t cele din cea mai s\u0103rac\u0103 (ultima) quintil\u0103. Un alt fapt uimitor este c\u0103, dac\u0103 gospod\u0103riile sunt \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bite \u00een indivizi, gospod\u0103ria medie din quintila inferioar\u0103 prime\u0219te 36.079 de dolari ca venit pe cap de locuitor, iar cele din quintilele superioare primesc 32.477, 35.142, 40.549 \u0219i, respectiv, 78.837 de dolari ca venit pe cap de locuitor. Aceasta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103, pe cap de locuitor, gospod\u0103ria medie din quintila inferioar\u0103 prime\u0219te cu peste 10% mai mult dec\u00e2t gospod\u0103ria medie din cea de-a doua \u0219i chiar cu 3% mai mult dec\u00e2t gospod\u0103ria medie cu venituri medii.<\/p>\n<p>Diferen\u021ba dintre quintila de jos \u0219i celelalte patru quintile const\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 \u00een faptul c\u0103 persoanele din quintila de jos nu lucreaz\u0103 la fel de mult. Desigur, de multe ori nu este vina lor: unii dintre ei sunt bolnavi, \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103, cu handicap sau cu alte tipuri de incapacitate. Dar unii dintre ei sunt ap\u021bi de munc\u0103, sunt sigur, de\u0219i nu lucreaz\u0103 sau lucreaz\u0103 pu\u021bin. Acest lucru trebuie s\u0103 fi cauzat, a\u0219 sugera, nefericire \u0219i resentimente \u00een cele patru quintile care au aproape acela\u0219i venit dup\u0103 transferuri \u0219i pl\u0103\u021bi de taxe. Cei din quintila inferioar\u0103, care sunt ap\u021bi de munc\u0103 \u0219i nu muncesc, sunt neferici\u021bi, deoarece nu au un sens \u0219i un scop \u00een via\u021b\u0103. La fel ca muncitorii albi necalifica\u021bi \u0219i necalifica\u021bi de v\u00e2rst\u0103 mijlocie men\u021biona\u021bi mai sus, probabil c\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i petrec cea mai mare parte a timpului uit\u00e2ndu-se la meciuri de fotbal \u0219i juc\u00e2nd jocuri video, b\u00e2nd \u0219i fum\u00e2nd \u0219i blestem\u00e2nd via\u021ba. Cei din cele trei quintile de deasupra lor trebuie s\u0103 se simt\u0103 deranja\u021bi de faptul c\u0103 nu pare s\u0103 conteze prea mult dac\u0103 muncesc sau nu: ei primesc aproximativ acela\u0219i venit, sau chiar mai pu\u021bin, dec\u00e2t persoanele din quintila inferioar\u0103. Este posibil ca aceste persoane s\u0103 nu fie capabile s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i articuleze resentimentele. Dar ei \u0219tiu c\u0103 ceva nu este \u00een regul\u0103 \u0219i, dup\u0103 p\u0103rerea mea, de aceea voteaz\u0103 pentru Trump. Americanii nu au resentimente fa\u021b\u0103 de cei boga\u021bi: \u00cen 2016 au votat pentru cel mai bogat pre\u0219edinte din istorie. Dar ei se resimt atunci c\u00e2nd munca nu este recompensat\u0103 corespunz\u0103tor.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 alegerile pentru Parlamentul European vor avea loc \u00een perioada 6-9 iunie 2024, merit\u0103 s\u0103 arunc\u0103m o privire la ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00een Statele Unite. Este aproape sigur c\u0103 cei doi candida\u021bi principali la pre\u0219edin\u021bie vor fi pre\u0219edintele Joe Biden \u0219i fostul pre\u0219edinte Donald Trump. De asemenea, este probabil ca Trump [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":27794,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[183,160],"tags":[689,1277,503,1521,1519],"editorial-positions":[],"regions":[375,406],"types":[456],"class_list":["post-27890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cultura-ro","category-politica","tag-elections","tag-america","tag-immigration","tag-income","tag-poverty","regions-usa-ro","regions-world-ro","types-opinion-ro"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures - The Conservative<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures - The Conservative\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 alegerile pentru Parlamentul European vor avea loc \u00een perioada 6-9 iunie 2024, merit\u0103 s\u0103 arunc\u0103m o privire la ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00een Statele Unite. Este aproape sigur c\u0103 cei doi candida\u021bi principali la pre\u0219edin\u021bie vor fi pre\u0219edintele Joe Biden \u0219i fostul pre\u0219edinte Donald Trump. De asemenea, este probabil ca Trump [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Conservative\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hannes.h.gissurarson\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-05-28T06:53:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hannes Gissurarson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@GissurarsonH\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Scris de\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hannes Gissurarson\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Timp estimat pentru citire\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"15 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Hannes Gissurarson\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#\/schema\/person\/be950cf98024a3f82980b2a5c935e37c\"},\"headline\":\"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-05-28T06:53:29+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures\"},\"wordCount\":2911,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"#elections\",\"america\",\"immigration\",\"income\",\"Poverty\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Cultur\u0103\",\"Politic\u0103\"],\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures\",\"name\":\"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures - The Conservative\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-05-28T06:53:29+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#\/schema\/person\/be950cf98024a3f82980b2a5c935e37c\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1707,\"caption\":\"NATIONAL HARBOR, MD, USA- February 24, 2024: Donald Trump speaks at CPAC about his plan for defeating current President Joe Biden in November.\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\",\"name\":\"The Conservative\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#\/schema\/person\/be950cf98024a3f82980b2a5c935e37c\",\"name\":\"Hannes Gissurarson\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e594e8ad4fe8bcdcf81f178814f0579b612ff6ad319e10c582820034f47b6c67?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e594e8ad4fe8bcdcf81f178814f0579b612ff6ad319e10c582820034f47b6c67?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Hannes Gissurarson\"},\"description\":\"Professor Emeritus of Politics at the University of Iceland.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hannes.h.gissurarson\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/hannes1953\/\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/hannes-gissurarson-90485239\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/GissurarsonH\",\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hannes_Hlmsteinn_Gissurarson\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/author\/hannes-eunat-2023-2024\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures - The Conservative","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures","og_locale":"ro_RO","og_type":"article","og_title":"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures - The Conservative","og_description":"Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 alegerile pentru Parlamentul European vor avea loc \u00een perioada 6-9 iunie 2024, merit\u0103 s\u0103 arunc\u0103m o privire la ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00een Statele Unite. Este aproape sigur c\u0103 cei doi candida\u021bi principali la pre\u0219edin\u021bie vor fi pre\u0219edintele Joe Biden \u0219i fostul pre\u0219edinte Donald Trump. De asemenea, este probabil ca Trump [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures","og_site_name":"The Conservative","article_author":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hannes.h.gissurarson","article_published_time":"2024-05-28T06:53:29+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1707,"url":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Hannes Gissurarson","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@GissurarsonH","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"Hannes Gissurarson","Timp estimat pentru citire":"15 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures"},"author":{"name":"Hannes Gissurarson","@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#\/schema\/person\/be950cf98024a3f82980b2a5c935e37c"},"headline":"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures","datePublished":"2024-05-28T06:53:29+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures"},"wordCount":2911,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg","keywords":["#elections","america","immigration","income","Poverty"],"articleSection":["Cultur\u0103","Politic\u0103"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures","url":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures","name":"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures - The Conservative","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg","datePublished":"2024-05-28T06:53:29+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#\/schema\/person\/be950cf98024a3f82980b2a5c935e37c"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"ro-RO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"ro-RO","@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Trump-scaled.jpg","width":2560,"height":1707,"caption":"NATIONAL HARBOR, MD, USA- February 24, 2024: Donald Trump speaks at CPAC about his plan for defeating current President Joe Biden in November."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/va-castiga-trump-two-conjectures#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Va c\u00e2\u0219tiga Trump? Two Conjectures"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#website","url":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro","name":"The Conservative","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#\/schema\/person\/be950cf98024a3f82980b2a5c935e37c","name":"Hannes Gissurarson","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"ro-RO","@id":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e594e8ad4fe8bcdcf81f178814f0579b612ff6ad319e10c582820034f47b6c67?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e594e8ad4fe8bcdcf81f178814f0579b612ff6ad319e10c582820034f47b6c67?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Hannes Gissurarson"},"description":"Professor Emeritus of Politics at the University of Iceland.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hannes.h.gissurarson","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/hannes1953\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/hannes-gissurarson-90485239\/","https:\/\/x.com\/GissurarsonH","https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hannes_Hlmsteinn_Gissurarson"],"url":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/author\/hannes-eunat-2023-2024"}]}},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/53"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27890"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27890\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27794"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27890"},{"taxonomy":"editorial-positions","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/editorial-positions?post=27890"},{"taxonomy":"regions","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/regions?post=27890"},{"taxonomy":"types","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theconservative.online\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types?post=27890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}