Subscribe
“Catalonia has been decisive in stopping the right”. These were the words of the socialist candidate for Barcelona, Meritxell Batet when the results of the Spanish general election were revealed.
The left’s positive result left many in shock. After election day, the faith of the leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and current Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, will depend on Junts per Catalunya. This separatist party led de-facto by fugitive Carles Puigdemont, has won seven seats in Parliament. That is one MP less than what it had.
Together, Catalonia’s separatist parties have lost 9 seats and 700,000 votes. But, given the distribution of seats this time, those seven Junts MPs could play kingmaker. Indeed, the future of Spain is in the hands of those who want to break it.
An agreement between Pedro Sánchez and Puigdemont will not come easy. They do not have a history of collaboration precisely. In 2019, the Junts MPs did not vote for the investiture of the socialist leader. They did not vote for their budgets or their reform of the Criminal Code.
The chances of a pact between the PSOE and Junts are also impacted by last May’s regional elections. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) reached an agreement with the Catalan Popular Party (PP, EPP) to prevent the Junts candidate, Xavier Trias, from becoming mayor of Spain’s most important city after the capital.
Throughout the campaign, Puigdemont explained in the campaign that the only way for Junts to support an investiture was in exchange for a referendum of self-determination. Another “minimum” condition is amnesty for what they consider “exiles” and “political prisoners”, among them, Puigdemont himself.
Pedro Sánchez has a great Sword of Damocles hanging over his head. This Monday the Spanish Supreme Court asked the prosecutor of the Procés, Pablo Llarena, to issue an international search and arrest warrant against Puigdemont.
The court also issued a new European order against the fugitive after the European Justice removed his immunity. At the same time, the MEP of Junts, Clara Ponsatí was arrested by the Mossos (Barcelona police), when she returned to Spain.
After the election, Miriam Nogueras, the top candidate of Junts reiterated the words of Carles Puigdemont: “We will maintain the same position. Our pulse will not tremble. We will not make Sánchez president in exchange for nothing”.
A pact between PSOE and the separatists would not come cheap. In fact, another separatist party, Esquerra Republicana (ECR), ask Junts to agree on a position before negotiations start. Their leader, Gabriel Rufián, said a “hefty price” is in order.
The decision of Junts will tip the scales. There are currently two options on the table.
On the one hand, a deadlock Parliament, which Puigdemont had promised his voters. That would lead to an re-do of the general election.
The second option: for Puigdemont to change his position and obtain what his party has been fighting for years now: amnesty and a self determination referendum. These are key concessions that analysts say Sánchez might be ready to give, in exchange for four more years as Premier.
The governability of Spain is therefore in the hands of a fugitive from the Spanish justice.
We should remember that, in an interview on Spanish television, acting Prime Minister Sánchez once said that “Puigdemont’s word is worth what his declaration of independence is worth… it is wet paper.” The Deputy Secretary General of PSOE, María Jesús Montero, joined him, had branded the leader of Junts a liar and false. We shall see if these past statements will have implications for Junts ultimate course of action.
And yet, Junts might just forgive and forget…