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With nearly 30% support, Giorgia Meloni’s party outpaces rivals by 8 points as opposition parties slide
Recent weekly opinion polls paint a striking picture of Italy’s political landscape: Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), the party of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, remains solidly in first place, enjoying a clear and growing lead over its main rival, the Partito Democratico (PD). With the political mood shifting, the numbers reveal both strength for the ruling right and weakness among the opposition.
A Clear First Place
According to the latest aggregate polling data, Fratelli d’Italia is polling at around 29.6%, making it the clear frontrunner in national voting intention. The party holds a lead of roughly eight points over the Partito Democratico, which is situated in the low 20s — about 21.8–22% in most of the recent surveys.
These numbers align with other national polls, which also give FdI about 30.4%, with PD at 21.9%. In other terms, Fratelli d’Italia has not only retained its top spot, but increased its margin, signalling strong voter confidence and momentum.
Opposition Parties Losing Ground
In contrast, the PD appears unable to regain sufficient support to challenge FdI’s dominance. The polls show a PD plateau — not crashing, but not rising either. Meanwhile, the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) has dropped to about 13%, reflecting continued erosion of its previous strong base.
Other center-right parties see mixed results: Forza Italia and Lega are both polling in the 8.5–8.8% range, virtually tied. Their stability contributes to bolstering the center-right coalition but does not compensate for the differential between FdI and the opposition.
On the left, Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (AVS) is up to 6.6-7% but still far behind the major parties. Smaller centrist forces like Azione, Italia Viva, and +Europa remain under the threshold where they can significantly shift the balance alone.
This polling snapshot carries several important implications:
Strong Legitimacy for Meloni and the Center-Right
The substantial lead suggests that FdI not only commands sizeable voter support but also has earned a level of legitimacy and perceived competence that is translating into numbers. For Meloni, this reinforces her position both within her coalition and among the electorate.
Struggles for the Opposition
For the PD and its allies, the current numbers are concerning. The gap of around eight points is large enough that even a combined, unified opposition would need consistent gains over time to close it. The trend suggests a drift away from them, not just stagnation.
Potential Impacts on Regional Elections
Regional polls often reflect national sentiment, and recent surveys indicate that the right-wing coalition is performing strongly. If this holds in upcoming regional votes, it could further consolidate FdI’s dominance and help shape local governance in favor of its agenda.
Voter Realignment or Decline for Smaller Parties
The eroding support for M5S and the modest levels of AVS indicate that smaller parties may be losing relevance unless they recalibrate, form alliances, or find new issue niches. Some of their former voters may be shifting toward FdI, possibly drawn by strong leadership, confident messaging, or perceptions of stability.
Challenges Remain
Even with this dominant lead, Fratelli d’Italia cannot rest on its laurels. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
Sustaining Momentum: Political, economic, or international events could change the landscape quickly. Missteps could cost FdI support.
Internal Coalition Management:
The coalition partners (Lega, Forza Italia, etc.) will expect influence commensurate with results. Balancing those expectations is key.
Reaching Beyond Current Base: To expand even further, FdI would need to attract undecided voters and moderate centrists without alienating its core.
The latest polling data emphasize a robust performance from Fratelli d’Italia: first place with nearly 30% support, leading PD by about eight points, while opposition parties such as M5S, AVS, Lega and Forza Italia lag behind. For Giorgia Meloni and her party, these are auspicious signs of political strength. For the opposition, a wake-up call. As Italy moves toward regional contests and positions itself for future national elections, these trends suggest the balance of power is, for now, firmly on the side of FdI — but whether that will last is an open question.
Alessandro Fiorentino