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The efforts of the Swedish government to curb mass migration into the country is about to pay off.
Recent figures from the Swedish national statistics bureau shows that the proportion of the population that is born outside of Sweden stagnated between 2024 and 2025. The development has plateaued at 20,8 percent, even if the real total amount of settled immigrants in the country did increase – but only by a total of just over 10 000. The implications for the sectors that have been damaged or strained by the unprecedented immigration of the 2000s and 2010s are that their burdens will be lessened over the coming years.
This is a relief for the government, which has been questioned on its successes when it comes to solving the migration situation in the country. In a Sweden that was for several years overburdened by uncontrolled mass immigration, a reversal of the trends is one of the main expectations on the government, especially from the nationalist Sweden Democratic voters. There is no party on the right that does not agree that Sweden needs to shift its efforts towards integration and away from further in-takes.
Some of the other figures that have circulated the debate are the nearly 90 000 residence permits issued throughout 2025, which by themselves paint a less bright picture, at least for the most committed conservatives. The fallback for the governing Tidö parties, especially the Sweden Democrats which holds immigration control closest to its heart, is that the categories of immigrants that continue to move to Sweden are changing. Only about 2 000 asylums were issued in 2025, while the largest category is labour migration, which tends to be temporary, and is less likely to lead to large-scale illegal overstays and the social problems that come with irregular migration.
A remaining major issue when it comes to immigration is however family reunification, where the government has been working on heavy changes that will enter into effect only in 2027. Many right-wing voters view the slow pace of reform in this area as an indication of complacency or inadequacy, but it is worth reminding oneself how slowly a development such as that experienced by many Western European countries actually can be reversed.
After nearly four years of centre-right governing, Sweden is very close to de facto putting a stop to its perhaps most pressing social and economic problem. Any other governing coalition is unlikely to have taken the problems that continued mass immigration poses to the housing market, to welfare, to education, and to social cohesion seriously. With that said, there are other factors to take into account for transparency.
The demographer Tobias Hübinette, who closely follows population trends in Sweden, has several explanations for the plateau that the national statistics bear out. One is the general trend in Sweden that the pandemic years brought with them, of diminished migration across the globe. Another is a revision of the census that the Swedish tax agency performed in 2023, that wrote off tens of thousands of registered residents born in a different country, who no longer live in Sweden.
As with most political decisions however, the true effects are likely not going to be fully realised for many years. The Tidö parties’ much-needed reforms are setting the stage for the stabilisation of the migration situation in Sweden for future generations, just as liberal decisions of the 1980s and 1990s set the stage for the migration chaos of the 2010s. That Sweden is seeing some effects of the immigration austerity already, before the Tidö government’s first term has even ended, is a very positive sign for the future.
From 2023, the government’s first full year, to 2025, the total number of registered foreign-born residents increased by 40 000. Without proper political context, this is nothing for a conservative government to brag about, at least not if it wants to impress the nationalists that make out a large part of its voter base. But considering the number between 2010 and 2020 was half a million, an average of 100 000 people every two years is a good estimation of how immigration into Sweden has looked. If the Sweden Democrats, the Moderates, the Christian Democrats, and the Liberals manage to secure yet another term in the election later this year, Sweden will be well on its way to achieve Western Europe’s perhaps first true net negative immigration trend.