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June 2025 sees a significant drop in transatlantic trade balance, driven by falling exports and rising imports
The European Union’s trade balance weakened in June 2025, as new figures from Eurostat highlight a sharp contraction in its surplus with the rest of the world. According to the report, the EU registered a goods trade surplus of €8 billion, down steeply from €20.3 billion recorded in June 2024. For the euro area alone, the surplus stood at €7 billion.
The latest data paints a mixed picture: while overall EU exports to non-EU partners remained steady at €213.7 billion, imports rose by 6.4%, increasing pressure on the bloc’s external balance. A key driver of this development was the deterioration of trade with the United States, traditionally one of Europe’s most important commercial partners.
U.S. Trade Weakens Dramatically
Transatlantic trade figures stood out as particularly negative. EU exports to the U.S. fell by 10.3% year-on-year, reaching just €40.2 billion in June. This marks the steepest decline among the EU’s major trading partners, reflecting weaker demand for European goods in the American market.
At the same time, imports from the U.S. surged by 16.4%, climbing to €30.6 billion. This represents the second-highest annual growth in imports after China, suggesting robust American competitiveness and demand for European consumption of U.S. products.
The combination of falling exports and rising imports eroded Europe’s trade balance with the United States, significantly reducing the positive contribution the American market typically makes to the EU’s overall trade surplus.
Broader Global Trade Dynamics
The overall trade results underline a broader shift in global economic trends. While Europe has managed to maintain stable levels of exports globally, import growth suggests that European demand for foreign goods and raw materials continues to expand. This could be linked to relatively stable domestic consumption and investment needs within the bloc.
The decline in U.S.-bound exports raises questions about structural changes in trade flows. A strong U.S. dollar, evolving supply chains, and domestic industrial policies in the United States may be dampening the competitiveness of European goods. Meanwhile, the surge in U.S. exports to the EU could reflect American strength in sectors such as energy, technology, and aerospace.
For policymakers, the shifting balance highlights the vulnerability of Europe’s trade position to global economic fluctuations. The EU’s reliance on trade surpluses as a stabilizing factor for growth means that sustained declines in exports to major partners like the U.S. could pose risks for the bloc’s economy.
Sectoral and Policy Implications
Though Eurostat’s release does not provide sector-specific details, several industries are likely at the center of the shifting figures. European manufacturers of machinery, vehicles, and pharmaceuticals—traditionally strong exporters to the U.S.—may be facing increased competition or reduced demand. Conversely, Europe’s import surge could be tied to American energy exports, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as high-value technological goods.
For the EU, this evolving trade landscape could trigger policy debates on competitiveness and diversification. Calls for stronger industrial policies, greater investment in technology, and efforts to reduce dependencies on external partners are likely to intensify. At the same time, European exporters may seek to pivot toward faster-growing markets in Asia or Latin America to offset losses in the U.S.
The European Central Bank and national governments will also be watching closely, as trade balances feed into broader economic indicators, including growth forecasts and currency dynamics. A shrinking surplus could weigh on the euro, especially if accompanied by slower industrial output in the months ahead.
Looking Ahead
While a single month does not determine long-term trends, the June 2025 figures underscore the fragility of Europe’s external trade position. With geopolitical tensions, global supply chain adjustments, and economic policy shifts all influencing trade dynamics, the EU faces a complex environment in which to defend its export performance.
The sharp decline in exports to the U.S. serves as a reminder that even longstanding, robust economic relationships are not immune to volatility. For now, Europe retains a modest surplus, but whether it can sustain this in the face of rising imports and weakening transatlantic demand will be a key question for the second half of 2025.
Alessandro Fiorentino