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The announcement of the introduction of new US tariffs scheduled for early October opens a complex scenario that requires careful analysis of the economic and political consequences both for the US domestic market and for the economies of trading partners, particularly those of the European Union. The measures include a significant increase in tariffs on pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks, strategic sectors for both sides of the Atlantic. The underlying context is that of an economic policy that uses tariffs as a lever to stimulate domestic production, with the stated goal of protecting national security and supporting the manufacturing sector. However, historical experience and global trade dynamics suggest that the adoption of such measures risks generating significant side effects, compromising market stability and economic operator confidence.
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE US ECONOMY
The most immediate impact concerns American consumers, who will face a likely price increase in essential sectors. In the case of pharmaceuticals, the situation appears particularly delicate: the United States relies heavily on imported pharmaceutical products. Applying tariffs of up to 100% on these goods could significantly increase healthcare costs, putting pressure on insurance systems, hospitals, and public programs. Rising drug prices risks of not only burdening patients financially but also reducing access to care. Foreign pharmaceutical companies, forced to build facilities in the US to avoid tariffs, may not be able to respond quickly to this demand, thus creating market shortages. The furniture and furnishings sector, hit by tariffs of up to 50%, faces critical issues related to the real estate market. At a time when high mortgage rates are already making it difficult to purchase new homes, rising furniture prices risks exacerbating the situation, impacting builders and families. The heavy-duty truck sector, subject to 25% tariffs, is a key sector for logistics and transportation. Increasing import costs for these vehicles could impact the entire supply chain, as transportation is essential to the functioning of the economy. Another aspect to consider is the overall macroeconomic impact. The United States is in a growth phase characterized by significant uncertainty: the stock market appears solid, but job creation in the manufacturing sector is declining, and inflation remains high.
THE IMPACT ON THE EUROPEAN UNION
The consequences of the new tariffs are not limited to the United States. The European Union, which exports a significant share of pharmaceuticals, furniture, and commercial vehicles to the American market, risks experiencing a contraction in its exports. The imposition of high tariffs reduces the competitiveness of European companies, making access to the US market more costly and threatening thousands of jobs. For the European pharmaceutical industry, the US market represents a key outlet, both in terms of revenue and research investment. A potential reduction in exports could translate into a reduced ability to sustain innovation costs, compromising the continent’s scientific leadership. Furthermore, companies could be forced to reorient production to alternative markets, which would be time-consuming and costly. The European furniture sector, which is highly competitive internationally, risks losing market share. For Italian manufacturers, for example, who are particularly active in exports to the United States, increased tariffs could lead to a loss of margins or, alternatively, the exclusion of a significant portion of demand. In the commercial vehicles and heavy-duty truck sector, European manufacturers could see their competitiveness diminished compared to local competitors, who would benefit from customs protection. This imbalance could push some companies to reconsider their investments in the United States, with repercussions also on their internationalization strategies.
RISK OF TRADE CONFLICT AND SYSTEMIC IMPACT
The unilateral introduction of tariffs by Washington risks triggering a domino effect of trade retaliation by affected partners. The European Union could respond with similar measures, imposing tariffs on US products, generating a climate of uncertainty that would further penalize international trade. Such an escalation would undermine the stability of transatlantic relations, traditionally based on economic and political cooperation. More broadly, the frequent use of tariffs as an industrial policy tool risks undermining the United States’ credibility as a promoter of free trade. This could incentivize other countries to follow similar strategies, contributing to a weakening of the system. In a global context already characterized by geopolitical tensions, this dynamic could have long-term repercussions on economic growth and international governance.
TARIFFS ARE UNSUSTAINABLE
An analysis of the announced measures highlights how the stated objective of protecting US domestic industry clashes with the real risk of producing the opposite effect to that intended. Increased tariffs, far from ensuring a structural strengthening of the manufacturing sector, could fuel inflation, reduce household purchasing power, and undermine the competitiveness of businesses, without ensuring significant job creation. On the European side, US measures pose complex challenges for key sectors of the economy, from pharmaceuticals to furniture to transportation. The prospect of a transatlantic trade conflict cannot be ruled out and requires in-depth reflection on the European Union’s response strategies. Ultimately, tariffs do not represent a sustainable solution to the structural problems of the US economy, but risk generating instability on a global scale.