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Rising global prices expose structural vulnerabilities in Europe’s energy system, while underscoring Italy’s opportunity to accelerate its transition
The latest surge in global energy prices is expected to hit Europe harder than the United States, and within the European Union the impact could be felt most sharply in Italy. According to an analysis cited by the Financial Times and conducted by Oxford Economics, the spike in energy costs could push Italian inflation more than one percentage point higher than previously forecast in the fourth quarter of the year.
At first glance, the figures paint a troubling picture for the Italian economy. Yet they also reveal something deeper: the structural imbalance in the global energy system and the strategic urgency for Europe—and Italy in particular—to accelerate its path toward energy diversification and independence.
Across the euro area and the United Kingdom, inflation forecasts are expected to increase by more than half a percentage point due to rising energy prices. The impact in the United States, however, is projected to be significantly smaller. Analysts estimate that American inflation could increase by only 0.2 percentage points over the same period, while Canada is expected to be the least affected among advanced economies.
The difference lies largely in the structure of national energy systems. The United States has transformed its energy position over the past decade. According to official data, the country became a net exporter of natural gas in 2017 and of oil in 2020. This means that rising global prices, while painful for consumers at the pump, can also benefit parts of the domestic energy sector.
By contrast, many European and Asian economies remain heavily dependent on energy imports. When global prices rise sharply, these economies have far less protection against external shocks. The result is stronger inflationary pressure and increased volatility across domestic markets.
The latest crisis illustrates this dynamic clearly. Following the outbreak of conflict involving Iran and escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil and gas markets reacted dramatically. The benchmark Brent crude price surged by nearly 30 percent in the space of a week, while European gas prices jumped by roughly two-thirds.
Much of the market anxiety stems from fears that energy shipments could be disrupted through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important corridors for oil and liquefied natural gas transport. Any prolonged disruption in this narrow maritime passage would have immediate consequences for global supply.
In addition, production losses in parts of the Middle East have further fuelled concerns about tightening energy markets. Combined with already volatile gas prices in Europe, these developments are placing additional pressure on economies that rely heavily on imported fuels.
For Italy, the consequences are particularly visible. The country imports the majority of the energy it consumes, making it more sensitive to sudden price swings in international markets. Higher fuel and gas costs quickly ripple through the economy, affecting transportation, manufacturing, electricity prices and household budgets.
Yet focusing only on the short-term impact risks overlooking an important reality: Italy has already begun reshaping its energy strategy in response to previous crises.
In recent years, Rome has worked to diversify its energy supply, expanding partnerships with producers across the Mediterranean and Africa while increasing investments in renewable energy. Italy’s geographic position also gives it a unique advantage, potentially allowing it to become a key energy hub linking North Africa, Southern Europe and broader EU markets.
This transformation is not just a defensive strategy—it could become a competitive strength. By accelerating renewable deployment, improving grid infrastructure and strengthening regional energy partnerships, Italy could reduce its exposure to global price shocks while contributing to Europe’s long-term energy resilience.
Moreover, the current crisis reinforces the strategic logic behind the European Union’s broader push toward energy transition and supply diversification. Reducing dependence on volatile external markets is no longer only an environmental priority; it is an economic and geopolitical necessity.
In that sense, the inflationary pressure now facing Italy may ultimately serve as a catalyst for faster structural change.
Energy shocks have always exposed weaknesses in global economic systems. But they also create opportunities for countries willing to adapt. For Italy, today’s vulnerability could become tomorrow’s advantage—if the momentum toward diversification, innovation and energy independence continues to grow.
Alessandro Fiorentino