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Those who believe that the “demographic winter” is merely a metaphor are terribly mistaken. Projections indicate a decline of tens of millions of Europeans by the end of the century. Looking at the statistics is enough to understand, at least in principle, just how alarming the situation is.
There’s been a shocking trend in fertility rates over the past few decades. In 1950, the rate was 2.7 children per woman. Seventy-five years later, in 2025, the European Union’s fertility rate had dropped to just 1.34 children. Six decades ago, 6.8 million children were born in Europe. Last year, there were only 3.5 million births – compared to 4.8 million deaths. These figures are very revealing. Fewer and fewer children are being born, yet death rates are rising. We have all heard the following way too many times: first comes a fulfilling career, then a desirable home, and finally the “right moment” – which is getting harder and harder to find. The demographic winter is not merely a “trend”; it is already here.
This existential crisis and the solutions it demands will be discussed from September 11–13 in Dubrovnik at what is promising to be one of the most anticipated events of the fall – “Putting an End to Europe’s Demographic Winter,” part of the ECR Party European Awareness Days. This small Croatian paradise by the Adriatic Sea is hosting once again the European Congress on Family, now in its third edition. Sitting next to the centuries-old fortifications of charming Dubrovnik, legislators and policy makers, pro-life and pro-family leaders, prominent professors and influential commentators will talk about what concrete steps need to be taken to ensure that Europe still has a future.
While the progressive left has denounced the natural hierarchy as a thing of the past and is struggling to redefine the fundamental institution of the family, the conservative right strongly advocates for urgent measures to reverse this catastrophic trend. The decline is not irreversible, but it won’t fix itself either. It requires decisive and realistic solutions.
The numbers are reshaping Europe. The statistics make your skin crawl. This reshaping will not result in a smaller continent, but in new one, with a different composition. Even if the population remains roughly the same through migration, it will no longer be the European peoples who continue to exist, but something else. True reshaping means a return to our roots, to common sense, and to normality: man and woman with their children, families as the fundamental units of societal continuity.
A fundamental change is taking place right before our very eyes. Social media and AI are profoundly rewriting family life. This is no longer just a “mere” hypothesis, but a reality we must confront. It is both an evolution and a transformation of values, but not one we should simply accept automatically.
How will each of us contribute to raising the next generation, and what will that consist of? Here is another burning issue we are expecting to explore at the ECR Party European Awareness Days in Dubrovnik. How will parents continue to fulfil one of their fundamental duties? What are the most effective methods that educators and teachers should apply? What will be the effective role of the state? The answers to these questions can and should be challenging. A society that truly educates will endure; a society that views the birth of a child in terms of its carbon footprint will perish.
For decades, Europeans have witnessed a decline that today threatens our very existence. To reach again the rate of 2.1 births per woman is a matter of existential importance. Having children is a blessing and the only path to building the future. The demographic winter is, ultimately, the winter of a civilization that has forgotten that survival is not something to be negotiated or measured ideologically, but something to be embraced. Without natural descendants, a nation will cease to exist.
While the left is blinded by ideological and utopian absurdities, the center-right is realistically debating (true) progress, freedom, and the future of our civilisation, to put an end to Europe’s demographic winter. See you in Dubrovnik!