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The Brazilian elections on 4 October 2026 were historic. Right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro received more votes than incumbent left-wing President Lula da Silva: 47 per cent to 45 per cent, despite polls predicting more votes for Lula. Since most of the other candidates came from the Right, Bolsonaro is likely to win the second round on 25 October. The Right won control of the Senate, now commanding 49 of its 81 seats. It made huge gains in the Chamber of Deputies, though a majority is hard to define. Most of Brazil’s 27 governors elected now also belong to the Right. If Bolsonaro wins the second round, the Right will be in power across South America: Bolsonaro in Brazil, Milei in Argentina, Espriella in Colombia, Kast in Chile, and Fujimori in Peru, all of whom emphasise public security and private enterprise.
Lula is Far Left; Bolsonaro is Not Far Right
Perhaps the vote was more against Lula than for Bolsonaro. One reason for his defeat was voter fatigue: he has been president for sixteen years and will soon turn 81. Another factor was disappointment. Lula’s supporters hoped he would reduce poverty. Instead, he made it easier to remain poor through subsidies, notably the Bolsa Família (Family Grants), rather than to escape poverty through opportunity. A third reason was that Lula’s radicalism became more pronounced. International media claim that Bolsonaro is far right, which is a half-truth, whereas Lula is certainly far left. He is a friend of the Iranian mullahs, of the late Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, and of Nicolás Maduro, the narco-trafficker in Venezuela. The fourth reason was rampant corruption, certainly not confined to Lula’s Workers Party, but particularly rife there. Many voters said that Bolsonaro was no saint, but not the same sinner as Lula, who spent more than a year in prison for corruption. They followed the advice of Italian journalist Indro Montanelli when a Communist victory once seemed likely in parliamentary elections: ‘Turiamoci il naso e votiamo DC’ (Let us hold our noses and vote for the Christian Democrats).
Judicial Overreach
A fifth reason for Lula’s defeat was the recent abuse of power by left-wing judges, especially Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. He and his comrades set Lula free on a technicality (that he had not been tried in the proper locality). On no hard evidence, Moraes sentenced former president Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father, to 27 years in prison for plotting a military coup. Moraes also sentenced Eduardo Bolsonaro, Flávio’s brother, to four and a half years in prison for obstructing justice (allegedly encouraging the United States government to sanction Moraes and other judges). Recently, a scandal erupted involving both Flávio Bolsonaro and Moraes: the failure of Master Bank, directed by the fraudster Daniel Vorcaro. Some Bolsonaro supporters were shocked to learn that Flávio had asked Vorcaro for a donation to a documentary about his father. But this was nothing compared with what was subsequently revealed about Moraes. His wife received $25 million for ‘consulting’ with Master Bank, while Moraes stayed in close contact with Vorcaro, seemingly advising him on legal issues. His allies in the Supreme Court have resisted investigating the case. The Right’s gains in the Senate elections are significant because it would take 54 senators to impeach a Supreme Court Justice.
Brazil Needs Economic Freedom
Many local results were notable. Sergio Moro, the judge who originally convicted Lula of corruption, was elected governor of Paraná in southern Brazil. He was accused of excessive zeal in Lula’s case, but perhaps he had taken to heart Barry Goldwater’s observation that extremism in the defence of liberty was no vice and that moderation in the pursuit of justice was no virtue. Lula’s Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, the Left’s candidate against Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential elections, was thrashed in the São Paulo gubernatorial election. Marcel Van Hattem, a committed fighter for economic freedom, was elected senator from Rio Grande do Sul. Indeed, Brazil needs economic freedom now.