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A new European Commission report warns that declining birth rates, rapid population aging, and a shrinking workforce will reshape the European Union for generations, despite longer life expectancy and continued migration.
The European Union is approaching one of the most significant demographic transformations in its modern history. According to the European Commission’s Third Report on Demographic Change, published by the Joint Research Centre on July 14, the EU’s population is expected to reach its historic peak within just a few years before entering a decades-long decline that could fundamentally alter the continent’s economy, labour market, healthcare systems, and social policies.
The report projects that the EU population, currently estimated at 450.6 million people, will rise slightly to 453.3 million in 2029, marking the highest level ever recorded. From that point onward, however, the trend reverses. By 2050, the Union’s population is expected to fall to around 445 million, before dropping further to approximately 398.8 million by the end of the century—a decline of nearly 50 million people, or roughly 11.7%, bringing Europe’s population back to levels last seen during the 1970s.
While demographic change has been unfolding gradually for decades, the new projections highlight that the coming decades will see an acceleration of two parallel trends: Europeans are living longer than ever before, while significantly fewer children are being born.
One of the report’s most encouraging findings concerns life expectancy. Over the past century, improvements in healthcare, medical innovation, education, nutrition, living standards, and reductions in infant mortality have dramatically increased longevity across the continent. Since the 1960s, life expectancy has grown by roughly two years every decade.
According to the Commission’s projections, life expectancy at birth—estimated at 81.5 years in 2024 (84.1 years for women and 78.9 years for men)—will continue to increase steadily. By 2100, women are expected to live beyond 90 years in every EU Member State, while men are projected to reach at least 86 years on average.
Although this represents one of Europe’s greatest public health achievements, it also creates substantial policy challenges. By the end of the century, almost one in every three Europeans will be aged 65 or older, compared with approximately one in five today. This dramatic aging of the population will place increasing pressure on healthcare services, pension systems, long-term care, and public finances throughout the Union.
At the same time, Europe continues to experience a persistent decline in births. The report shows that fertility has been falling almost continuously since the second half of the 1960s. The EU recorded its highest number of births in 1964, when approximately 6.8 million children were born.
Since then, births have steadily declined despite occasional temporary recoveries. Annual births dropped to 4.36 million in 2002, briefly recovered to 4.68 million in 2008, experienced modest rebounds in 2014, 2016, and 2021, but ultimately continued their downward trajectory, reaching just 3.55 million births in 2024.
The underlying fertility rate paints an equally challenging picture. Demographers generally consider 2.1 children per woman to be the replacement level required for a stable population in the absence of migration. Today, however, no EU Member State reaches that threshold.
Across the Union, the Total Fertility Rate rose modestly from 1.43 children per woman in 2001 to 1.57 in 2010, before falling again. After several minor fluctuations, fertility declined to 1.46 in 2022 and reached only 1.34 in 2024, among the lowest levels recorded in Europe.
While the Commission expects fertility rates to recover slightly over the coming decades, projections indicate they will remain well below replacement level throughout the century, meaning natural population decline is likely to continue.
Migration, often viewed as a potential solution to Europe’s demographic challenges, will only partially offset these trends.
The report acknowledges that the European Union is expected to remain an attractive destination for international migrants. Continued immigration will undoubtedly help slow the pace of demographic decline and reduce immediate labour shortages. However, researchers conclude that migration alone cannot fully compensate for the structural effects of persistently low fertility and an aging population.
Migration primarily influences the overall size of the population rather than its long-term age structure. Moreover, the children of migrants generally adopt fertility patterns similar to those of the countries in which they settle, meaning the demographic impact diminishes over time.
Perhaps the most immediate economic consequence will be the shrinking workforce. Eurostat projections cited in the report estimate that between 2025 and 2050, the European Union will lose an average of 1.2 million working-age people every year—defined as individuals aged 15 to 64. Without migration, that annual loss would nearly double to approximately 2.4 million people, illustrating both the importance and the limitations of migration in addressing demographic decline.
The findings reinforce the growing urgency for coordinated EU policies that support families, encourage higher labour market participation, promote healthy aging, and boost productivity through innovation and technology. Europe’s demographic future will not be determined by a single solution, but by a combination of economic reforms, social investment, family-friendly policies, and carefully managed migration.
As the European Union approaches its demographic peak, policymakers face a defining challenge: adapting Europe’s institutions to a future where fewer people must sustain an older, longer-living population. The decisions taken over the coming decades will shape not only the continent’s economic competitiveness but also the sustainability of Europe’s social model for generations to come.
Alessandro Fiorentino