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Punitive duties on EU dairy products threaten exports, hit Italian cheeses hard, and deepen the credibility crisis of the European Commission.
The deterioration of trade relations between the European Union and China has entered a new and troubling phase. In the broader context of the US–China trade war, Beijing’s decision to impose tariffs ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% on a wide range of European dairy products represents far more than a sectoral dispute. It is a strategic signal that risks undermining key EU exports, weakening entire supply chains, and exposing once again the structural fragility of Europe’s position in global trade conflicts.
These new Chinese tariffs arrive after months of escalating tensions between Brussels and Beijing, marked by mutual accusations of dumping, export restrictions, and retaliatory measures. While the EU has long found itself in a defensive posture within the US–China trade war, this episode highlights how poorly equipped Europe is when negotiating with global powers acting from positions of strength. The confrontation between China and the EU is intensifying at precisely the moment when Europe would need a clearer, firmer strategy to protect its economic interests.
The numbers alone explain the scale of the problem. Tariffs exceeding 40% effectively price many European dairy products out of the Chinese market, one of the fastest-growing destinations for food imports worldwide. For small and medium-sized enterprises, which invested heavily over the past decade to build a presence in China, the impact is potentially devastating. These duties function as an indirect tax on European producers, eroding margins, discouraging investment, and weakening competitiveness. What was already a difficult environment shaped by the US–China trade war has now become even harsher for European exporters.
Among the most exposed countries are Italy, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Ireland. Italy, in particular, stands to suffer disproportionately. Industry estimates suggest that exports of Italian cheese to China could fall by 15–20% in the short term. Products such as Parmigiano Reggiano, Grana Padano, and Gorgonzola—icons of Made in Italy excellence—now face tariff barriers so high that maintaining shelf space in Chinese supermarkets becomes economically unviable. The consequences ripple far beyond producers, affecting dairy farmers, logistics providers, and export-related services. The damage is not only financial but also reputational, as Italian cheeses had become symbols of prestige in emerging markets.
Against this backdrop, the response from the European Commission has been widely criticized as inadequate. Official statements have expressed “concern” and promised dialogue, but concrete countermeasures or support plans for affected sectors remain absent. For many producers and trade associations, this cautious approach reinforces the perception of an EU that reacts slowly and lacks political determination. In the context of the US–China trade war, such hesitation risks being interpreted as weakness, further eroding Europe’s bargaining power.
This episode feeds into a broader crisis of credibility for the European Commission. Observers increasingly question whether Brussels is capable of articulating and defending a coherent trade strategy in an era defined by economic confrontation between superpowers. Europe appears caught between Washington and Beijing, unable to leverage its market size into decisive influence. While the United States negotiates with China from a position of strength, the EU often seems relegated to the margins, forced to absorb decisions made elsewhere.
Several factors contribute to this credibility gap: the lack of a unified vision among member states, the absence of swift and credible retaliatory tools, and a diplomatic style perceived as overly cautious. The result is growing frustration among European businesses and declining confidence among international partners. Chinese tariffs on EU products are therefore not an isolated issue but a symptom of a deeper strategic malaise.
Looking ahead, the risks are substantial. Europe could permanently lose market share in key sectors such as dairy, see a slowdown in investment and innovation, and face rising domestic discontent among small and medium-sized enterprises. In the longer term, continued marginalization in global trade could weaken the European social and economic model itself, which depends heavily on open markets and value-added exports.
Yet alternatives exist. A more assertive EU trade policy could include a compensation fund for sectors hit by Chinese tariffs, stronger political unity among member states, and carefully calibrated reciprocity measures agreed at the multilateral level. At the same time, Europe should accelerate efforts to diversify export destinations, promoting Italian cheeses and other EU dairy products in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Renewed diplomatic engagement with Beijing, grounded in transparency and international trade rules, is also essential.
China’s decision to target EU dairy products is a wake-up call. The challenge Europe faces is not only economic but political and strategic. If the EU wants to avoid becoming a passive bystander in the US–China trade war, it must rediscover the ability to act decisively, defend its producers, and restore its credibility as a global economic actor.
Alessandro Fiorentino