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The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to be one of the main factors of geopolitical instability on the European continent, demonstrating growing complexity both militarily and diplomatically. The intensification of military operations, accompanied by the Russian Federation’s use of increasingly sophisticated and destructive weaponry, is intertwined with the delicate political process surrounding Ukraine’s European integration. The crisis thus takes on a multi-layered nature: on the one hand, the armed conflict and its humanitarian consequences; on the other, the institutional debate over Europe’s future political structure and Kyiv’s role within the European Union. One of the most significant episodes of the latest phase of the conflict involves the use of the Russian “Oreshnik” ballistic missile against Kyiv during a large-scale nighttime offensive. The attack, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, was presented by Moscow as a response to Ukrainian operations in the Luhansk region. Ukrainian authorities, however, have rejected the accusation of hitting civilian targets, maintaining that the intended target was a Russian drone base near Starobilsk. The incident has attracted international attention, particularly due to the characteristics of the missile system used. According to information released by the Kremlin, the Oreshnik falls into the category of intermediate-range ballistic missiles and is capable of hitting targets between 3,000 and 5,500 km away, thus including much of Europe within its range. The first known use of the missile dates back to 2024, during an attack against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, but its recent use against Kyiv has further heightened Western concerns.
EUROPEAN REACTIONS AND POLITICAL CONDEMNATION
The use of the Oreshnik has provoked a harsh reaction from European institutions and major EU governments. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen interpreted the massive Russian bombing as a demonstration of the Kremlin’s brutality and disregard for human life and peace negotiations. According to the European leader, the attacks against civilians are not a show of strength, but rather a sign of Russia’s growing political and military difficulty. Von der Leyen also reiterated the EU’s willingness to continue supporting Kyiv, particularly by strengthening Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Policy, Kaja Kallas, also strongly condemned the strikes, calling them acts of terrorism against the civilian population. Kallas argued that Moscow, finding itself in a military stalemate, deliberately chose to target urban centers. The Estonian diplomat considered the use of the Oreshnik missile particularly serious, interpreting it as a form of nuclear blackmail and strategic pressure against Europe. Similar positions have been taken by major European leaders. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed solidarity with the Ukrainian people, emphasizing the need to continue working with international partners to promote a just and lasting peace. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the attack a dangerous escalation of the conflict, while French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that the new bombings against civilian targets demonstrate both Russia’s strategic difficulties and the risk of escalating the war.
UKRAINE’S EUROPEAN PATH
In parallel with the military evolution of the conflict, diplomatic debate continues over the future relationship between Ukraine and the European Union. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently rejected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s proposal to grant Kyiv “associate member” status without voting rights during the long process of EU accession. Under Merz’s plan, Ukraine could participate in European summits, have its own representative on the European Commission, and benefit from part of the EU budget, but without full political rights within the EU institutions. Zelensky, however, reiterated that Ukraine’s contribution to Europe’s defense against the Russian invasion justifies full political integration. In his daily address, the Ukrainian president argued that a truly accomplished European project cannot exist without Ukraine’s presence as a full member. The official application for EU membership was submitted a few days after the Russian invasion in 2022. Kyiv subsequently obtained candidate status, and formal accession negotiations began in 2024. However, the process remains extremely complex and requires years of negotiations on economic, legal, and institutional issues, ranging from agriculture to respect for the rule of law. One of the main obstacles to the negotiations was the opposition of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. His departure from the political scene, however, has fueled Ukrainian hopes for an acceleration of the negotiation process. However, many internal issues remain critical, including the problem of corruption. This demonstrates how Ukraine’s European path depends not only on the military developments of the conflict, but also on its ability to implement profound institutional reforms.