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Europe, between Defensive Fragility and New Geopolitics

World - September 15, 2025

The international system is now undergoing a profound redefinition, where the certainties of the post-war and Cold War era appear to be progressively eroding. Europe, which for decades benefited from US military protection and built a model based on social well-being and widespread rights, now faces a dual challenge: on the one hand, the emergence of global powers that place collective commitment and a willingness to sacrifice at the center of their strategy; on the other, the rapprochement of Eurasian actors, committed to shaping a multipolar order alternative to Atlantic hegemony. This dual pressure is forcing Europe to reconsider its strategic, cultural, and political identity. The illusion of being able to maintain prosperity without commensurate defence costs risks marginalizing the continent, as the world’s geopolitical center of gravity shifts toward Eurasia.

THE SYMBOLIC MESSAGE OF CHINESE POWER

The military parade organized in Beijing is not a simple demonstration of military means, but represents a political language that communicates determination and collective will. The crucial element is not so much the quantity of weapons deployed, as much as the ability to convey the idea of ​​a nation ready to bear costs and sacrifices to affirm its worldview. A commitment, even before power. These demonstrations constitute a true political pedagogy, reaffirming how willingness to commit is an essential trait of legitimating power. They represent not only a military challenge, but also a cultural provocation to the West, inviting it to confront its own inability to value the concept of commitment as a defining element of identity.

UNITED STATES AND EUROPEAN COMMITMENT

The United States has long insisted on the need for Europe to increase defence spending, strengthen energy independence, and support the technological assets shared with the West. These demands, often perceived as unilateral impositions, are actually based on a pragmatic assessment of the risks associated with shifting global balances. China’s growing assertiveness makes it clear that Washington’s concerns were not unfounded. Today, the United States fears not only the erosion of its economic and industrial primacy, but also the possibility of having to face alone a global competition that is intensifying on multiple fronts. The gap between the United States and Europe is not just about political choices, but also about cultural roots. In the United States, sacrifice for one’s country is a constant narrative, celebrated in the media, literature, and the visual arts. In Europe, however, a prevailing embarrassment toward the military dimension is often replaced by a greater emphasis on humanitarian and civil values. This attitude stems from a political and social climate that has preferred to imagine the continent as a space of guaranteed rights and reduced duties. The idea that prosperity could be maintained without collective commitments has also been fuelled by movements that over the years have built their rhetoric on the promise of benefits without direct commitments. The success of this vision depends on its simplicity: defending welfare without strengthening security, protecting the environment without rethinking production chains, reclaiming sovereignty without accepting the costs of European integration. However, this perspective risks leaving Europe without the tools needed to face a world characterized by increasing competition. The ability to forgo immediate well-being to ensure future survival represents not only a political choice, but an anthropological dimension that Europe seems to have lost. Without a shared narrative of commitment, the continent risks becoming increasingly dependent on other international actors.

THE AMERICAN UMBRELLA AND ITS LIMITS

For decades, European security has been guaranteed by the military presence of the United States. This condition has allowed resources to be concentrated on building welfare, but it has also generated a structural vulnerability: the belief that external protection was an unlimited good. Today, this certainty is wavering. American commitment cannot be considered eternal and automatic, especially in a context in which the United States is called upon to face simultaneous challenges in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. Europe must therefore evaluate whether to continue living in the belief that it can delegate its own defence or to take a more active role in protecting its values.

THE EURASIAN RAPPROCHEMENT AS A STRUCTURAL CHALLENGE

In parallel with China’s growth, the strengthening of relations between Beijing and Moscow is helping to redraw the geopolitical landscape. This convergence is not limited to coordination on individual issues, but is part of a broader project aimed at building a multipolar order as an alternative to Western hegemony. Institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and platforms like the BRICS are becoming key tools for strengthening economic, political, and cultural ties between Eurasian powers. The inclusion of countries like India, Pakistan, and Iran gives these alliances a global character and strengthens the perception of an alternative power capable of exerting large-scale influence.

MILITARY AND TECHNOLOGICAL DIMENSIONS OF EURASIAN COOPERATION

Cooperation between Russia, China, and other regional players is not limited to the economic sphere. Joint military exercises, technology sharing and joint investments in artificial intelligence and cybersecurity signal strategic autonomy. Although technological gaps with the West remain, the combined arsenals and military capabilities of the countries involved constitute a significant deterrent. In this context, China aims to reduce the technological gap with the West by investing in strategic sectors such as telecommunications and cybersecurity. The goal is not an immediate confrontation, but rather the construction of a competitive ecosystem that, in the medium term, can rebalance power.

IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPE

The progressive consolidation of a Eurasian bloc represents a complex challenge for Europe. On the one hand, the continent remains anchored to the Atlantic Alliance; on the other, it cannot ignore the opportunities offered by markets and economic partnerships with Eurasian players. This dual tension risks amplifying internal divisions, with some countries inclined to strengthen ties with the United States and others more inclined to maintain privileged relations with Moscow and Beijing. Pressure exerted by Russia and China, including through energy and diplomatic means, could progressively weaken European cohesion. The absence of a common strategy risks transforming the continent into a battleground between external powers, incapable of asserting an autonomous position.

THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

The consolidation of Eurasian powers and their strategic convergence are not transitory phenomena, but rather signs of a structural transformation of the global order. The world is moving toward a multipolar system in which the West can no longer unilaterally dictate the rules. The challenge for Europe is to combine the defence of its values ​​with the ability to navigate a context of multiple and constantly evolving power structures. This requires not only economic and military resources, but above all a new collective narrative that values ​​commitment as the foundation of European identity. The competition between the West and Eurasia is not played out solely on economic or military levels but concerns the ability of each actor to construct a cultural and political narrative capable of mobilizing citizens. Europe, captive to the illusion of enjoying rights without burdens, risks losing its centrality in this new scenario. The future will depend on the continent’s ability to assume proportionate responsibilities and recognize that defending its values ​​requires sacrifice and collective commitment. Without this cultural transformation, Europe will remain a hesitant ally, unable to withstand the impact of an increasingly competitive and less forgiving world.