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While my sympathy in the war between Ukraine and Russia is with the country attacked, Ukraine, we cannot pretend that the attacker, Russia, ceases to exist if we close our eyes. She will still be there when we open them. So, an accommodation has to be reached, acceptable both to Ukraine and Russia. I am surprised that nobody has proposed what I would call the Nordic solution of the War in Ukraine. For centuries the Scandinavian countries fought one another, but slowly five principles took hold in their relations.
The Five Principles of Nordic Relations
Those principles are: 1) The right of secession. Norway seceded from Sweden in 1905, Finland from Russia in 1917, and Iceland from Denmark in 1918. 2) The autonomy of nationalities, such as that of the Åland Islands in Finland, and Greenland and the Faroe Islands in Denmark. 3) Change of borders by plebiscites. In 1920, Northern Schleswig voted in two constituencies between Denmark and Germany. In the northern part the inhabitants voted overwhelmingly to join Denmark, and in the southern part overwhelmingly to join Germany. Accordingly, the border was moved. 4) Conflict resolution by arbitration. The Åland Islands were craved by both Finland and Sweden. The League of Nations awarded them to Finland. Eastern Greenland was craved by both Norway and Denmark. The International Court of Justice awarded it to Denmark. Both Sweden and Norway accepted these decisions. 5) Cooperation with minimal surrender of sovereignty. In the Nordic Council, parlamentarians of the five Nordic countries meet regularly, and they cooperate on legal and social integration, establishing a common labour market and the abolition of passport controls long before the EU.
Plebiscites in Contested Regions
Ukraine seceded from Russia in 1991, because the Ukrainians constitute a nation with their own clear identity. They had the right to a state to protect this identity. The contested regions of Ukraine are on the Crimean Peninsula and in Eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, and in parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The Nordic solution would mean an instant ceasefire, followed by a division into constituencies of the contested regions now under Russian control, with each constituency voting whether it wants to belong to Ukraine or Russia, with the plebiscites conducted by the United Nations or some other agent (possibly two Nordic countries alongside Hungary and Slovakia). Then the border would be moved in accordance with the outcomes of the plebiscites. Who should vote? The only feasible answer is to let everybody who now lives in those regions, and all those who can prove that they lived there before the Russian invasion in 2022, vote.
Ukraine in the EEA
Moreover, Russia insists, and has long insisted, that Ukraine would not join NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. While sovereign states should of course have the right to choose alliances at will, perhaps, for the sake of peace, this Russian demand might be accepted. But what Ukraine really wants is to join the West in a broad sense. Perhaps another way of accomplishing this without alienating the Russians too much, would be to follow the Nordic example again. Norway and Iceland are members of EEA, the European Economic Area (with Liechtenstein and, to all practical purposes, Switzerland). The EEA is a forum for economic, not political integration. Could Ukraine not join the EEA? This would be a way to join the West without undertaking all the political (and perhaps in the future military) obligations that follow from EU membership.
Stopping the Bloodbath
There is no question that Russia violated international law by attacking Ukraine. History has also told us that aggressive dictators are emboldened if they are allowed to conquer countries by force. The only way to deal with them is to be strong and firm enough that they dare not attack. But if the borders between Russia and Ukraine are moved by the inhabitants themselves in internationally monitored plebiscites, then neither side can claim victory. Most importantly, the bloodbath will be stopped. And perhaps one day the Russians and the Ukrainians, as closely related as the Swedes are to the Norwegians, can cooperate to their mutual benefit and even be friends, like the Nordic nations.