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The Trade Barrier Index 2025 (TBI 2025) was recently published: a report of significant interest regarding the analysis of the current international economic situation. The importance of this document emerges in light of the transformations underway in the global trade system, marked by a return to protectionist policies. In this context, the index offers a detailed picture of existing trade barriers and, at the same time, constitutes a solid basis for interpreting future developments in the geopolitical and economic spheres.
A LOOK AT THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC
A methodological note must be made and, probably, also explored in depth in a subsequent article. In fact, the framework outlined by the TBI 2025 already appears, in part, outdated with respect to the sudden changes that could occur in the short term, in particular following the new tariff measures introduced by the US administration led by President Donald Trump. These policies, aimed at correcting the imbalances perceived by the US in international trade, have already led to an increase in costs related to imports and exports, with potential medium and long-term repercussions on numerous economies, including those of the Member States of the European Union. Despite this, the 2025 edition of the report represents an essential reference point for the study of the dynamics in progress.
CONTENTS AND METHODOLOGY OF THE TRADE BARRIER INDEX
To fully understand the analytical and interpretative scope of the Trade Barrier Index, a careful examination of the sources used, of the cognitive objectives pursued and the methodology adopted for data processing is essential. The TBI, in its nature as a composite index, is based on an integrated system of information from international organizations of proven authority: among them, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which provides data on restrictions in the services sector, and the World Trade Organization (WTO), which contributes statistics on non-tariff barriers, customs tariffs and participation in free trade agreements (FTA). The 2025 edition stands out for the breadth of its coverage, including 122 countries representing approximately 97% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product and 80% of the global population, marking a significant expansion compared to the 2023 edition, which only considered 88 countries. This extension reflects the desire to capture more accurately the complexity and evolution of the international trade landscape, while offering a solid empirical basis for the development of economic policies based on reliable and up-to-date data. In this sense, the TBI 2025 is configured as an advanced analysis tool, essential for the interpretation of the main global economic and trade trends. The index aims to monitor and evaluate all international trade through a multilevel approach, structured on four fundamental analytical pillars. Direct trade barriers are classified into three macro-categories: tariffs, non-tariff barriers (NTB) and restrictions on services. Added to these is a fourth interpretative axis called Facilitation, which takes into consideration a series of structural factors – including the efficiency of logistics infrastructures, the protection of property rights, restrictions on digital trade and the degree of adhesion to free trade agreements – that have a decisive impact on the ability of countries to access and participate in international trade.
WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE 2023 TRADE BARRIER INDEX?
To analyze the data provided by the 2025 Trade Barrier Index, we start by comparing it with the global average value of the previous edition of this document dated 2023. This is a value between 1 and 10, where 10 represents the highest possible level of pricing. In 2023, the value stood at 3.95, while in the current Index we can see an increase of 7%, reaching 4.22. What does this increase tell us? It certainly highlights the growth of the trend towards protectionism in the commercial sector, in a context that already has to deal with geopolitical instability linked to numerous ongoing conflicts, with the consequent reconfiguration of global chains and the rapid digitalization of economic flows.
DYNAMICS AND GLOBAL TRENDS OF THE TRADE BARRIER INDEX 2025
In light of this 7% global increase in the Index, it can be said that the analysis contained and suggested by the TBI 2025 photographs a global economy characterized by a tightening of restrictive trade policies within a scenario where geopolitical tensions and the digital transition take on an increasingly central role. The interconnected world and conflict-related crises – including in Europe with the war in Ukraine – are therefore among the elements facilitating this trend. Furthermore, the Trade Barrier Index 2025 highlights how one of the most relevant aspects of the current global trade context is represented by the proliferation of digital barriers. In particular, the European Union has adopted incisive regulations, such as the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act, introducing constraints on the cross-border flow of data, content localization requirements, cybersecurity standards and digital taxes. Taking up one of the assumptions proposed by the Index analysis, such regulatory measures, although justified by the need to protect consumers and the internal market, would risk hindering competition and slowing down technological innovation. These would, therefore, be significant barriers, especially if we consider the developments related to new technologies and, above all, the impact on our society that artificial intelligence will have in the near future. Looking at the large geographical areas and the impacts that the major economies have on the index and on digital barriers, we can take a look at the contrast between the Chinese and US markets. In China, both mandatory data localization measures and security barriers are used: in this way, a very precise and highly regulated digital environment has been created. Looking instead at the dragon’s major competitor on the other side of the Pacific, the United States does not have a real homogeneous federal strategy and discipline with regard to digital barriers. In fact, the individual States apply different restrictions, especially if we look at the regulations of the gig economy sectors, which involve platforms such as Uber and Airbnb. If we look at the maximum openness of the digital trade, the countries that obtain a higher index are certainly Singapore and New Zealand thanks to absolutely favourable rules and regulations, especially from the point of view of digital dynamics.
A LOOK AT REGIONAL DYNAMICS
Analyzing international trade from the perspective of large regional areas and looking at the data, we can confirm that North America is established as the geographical area with the highest level of trade openness, supported mainly by the excellent performance of Canada and of the United States, countries that continue to stand out for the adoption of policies aimed at the liberalization of trade. Naturally, as far as the USA is concerned, we must also take into account the introduction of new tariff policies launched by President Trump just a month before the publication of the report. If the policies were to become structural, they could cause the US index to collapse, also dragging down regional performance. Secondly, we find the countries of Western Europe which, while maintaining a relatively high degree of openness, appear to be penalized by a growing presence of non-tariff barriers. In particular with regard to stringent rules and regulations in the digital field, which tend to limit the international flow of data and the interoperability of services. Such issues are being examined and on the political agenda of the European Union, also with regard to support for the development of Artificial Intelligence. It is a character of greater heterogeneity that characterizes the market and the economies of the East Asian and Pacific region, as there are marked discontinuities between very different economies. On the one hand, we see very open economies such as Hong Kong and Singapore, which occupy first and second place respectively in the Trade Barrier Index 2025, and then we approach countries such as Indonesia, placed at the opposite end of the ranking (122nd place) due precisely to a high degree of commercial closure and a persistent use of protectionist measures. Some signs of improvement compared to the 2023 report are recorded in sub-Saharan Africa. The Index highlights that this growth is mainly due to structural reforms and partial liberalizations. In return, South Asia has the worst results, confirmed as the most restrictive region, strongly influenced by protectionist strategies such as those adopted by India and Pakistan that drive the region.