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With the launch of the first annual migration management cycle, the European Commission has inaugurated a decisive phase in the implementation of the Pact on Migration and Asylum, which will enter into full force in June 2026. This annual mechanism represents the Union’s attempt to address the migration phenomenon in a coordinated manner, providing an overview of the situation in the various Member States and establishing common criteria for solidarity and responsibility. The new system, designed to avoid imbalances between the countries most exposed to migration flows and those in Europe’s hinterland, provides for an annual assessment of migratory pressures and the creation of a “solidarity reserve” to support the most affected countries. This reserve may take various forms: relocation of asylum seekers, financial contributions, or operational support. Its activation will depend on the level of migratory pressure identified for each country, based on quantitative and qualitative criteria defined by European legislation. This new administrative architecture aims not only to manage the flow of irregular arrivals, but also to create a political balance between the interests of the countries of first entry and the resistance of Central and Eastern European governments, traditionally opposed to a mandatory quota system. The challenge, however, remains high: the full implementation of the Pact will require ongoing collaboration between Member States and European institutions, in a context still marked by profound political divergences.
ITALY UNDER PRESSURE: EUROPEAN SOLIDARITY AND REFORM OBLIGATIONS
Among the countries most affected by the new mechanism is Italy, which, along with Greece, Spain, and Cyprus, has been recognized by the Commission as one of the states “under migratory pressure.” This designation allows Rome to access the solidarity reserve, benefiting from relocations or economic assistance from other European partners. This is an important recognition, as it captures the structural condition of the country, which for years has been the Union’s main gateway to the central Mediterranean. However, European solidarity will not be unconditional. Brussels has clarified that Italy must fully implement the new rules of the Pact, particularly those relating to secondary movements, i.e., the unauthorized movement of migrants to other EU countries after entering European territory. Systematic registration of arrivals, orderly management of asylum procedures, and cooperation in repatriations are the key elements required of Italy to maintain access to the solidarity fund. A first formal review is scheduled for July 2026, when the Commission will publish a “report card” on Member States, assessing their level of compliance with the Pact rules. If Rome has not completed the necessary reforms, offers of support – whether relocation or financial contributions – may be withdrawn. This confirms the new system’s dual approach: solidarity must go hand in hand with national responsibility.
A CHANGING MIGRATORY PICTURE
According to the first European annual report on asylum and migration, the overall situation in the Union shows signs of improvement compared to previous years. Between July 2024 and June 2025, irregular crossings of the external borders decreased by 35%, thanks primarily to strengthened cooperation with countries of origin and transit. However, considerable challenges remain. The Union continues to grapple with the reception of Ukrainian refugees, the constant pressure of inflows from North Africa, and the growing exploitation of migration by external actors, such as Russia and Belarus, who use the movements of people as geopolitical leverage at the EU’s eastern borders. In this scenario, Italy occupies a particularly complex position. While benefiting from the overall reduction in arrivals, the country continues to record significant numbers of arrivals resulting from search and rescue operations in the Mediterranean. Managing these arrivals, often characterized by humanitarian emergencies and logistical tensions, places considerable strain on the national reception system, especially in regions such as Sicily, Calabria, and Puglia. The European perspective for 2026 envisions strengthening operational coordination and financial support for border states, as well as greater accountability. For Rome, this means not only improving administrative capacity in managing asylum applications and returns, but also proactively participating in the development of partnerships with third countries, in line with the Commission’s strategy to “outsource” part of migration management.
THE PACT BETWEEN SOLIDARITY AND RESISTANCE: INTRA-EUROPEAN TENSIONS
The new European Pact on Migration and Asylum is conceived as a balance between solidarity and shared responsibility. However, its practical implementation faces strong resistance from some Member States, particularly those in Central and Eastern Europe. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic have already announced their intention not to participate in the asylum redistribution system and not to contribute financially to the solidarity fund. These countries challenge the very principle of mandatory quotas, arguing that decisions on migration should remain a national responsibility. Some leaders, such as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, have openly stated that they will not accept migrants onto their territory and will not pay financial contributions, citing domestic political reasons for their position. In Hungary, where legislative elections will be held in April 2026, Orbán intends to use the migration issue as a central theme of his election campaign, focusing on the slogan “zero migrants.” At the institutional level, the Commission has provided for the possibility of exemptions for certain countries facing “significant migration situations,” such as Poland and the Czech Republic, allowing them to request a total or partial reduction in contributions. However, these derogations must be approved by a qualified majority in the Council and represent a point of political friction, as they reduce the amount of resources and relocations allocated to states under pressure like Italy. East-West tensions complicate the formation of the so-called solidarity pool, the distribution mechanism that should include at least 30,000 relocations and €600 million in contributions. While these numbers represent the legal minimum, their actual implementation will depend on the ability of the 27 member states to find a political compromise by the end of the year.
ITALY’S OUTLOOK FOR 2026
Italy faces a dual challenge: consolidating its position within the new framework of European solidarity and, at the same time, profoundly reforming its migration system. The objective is twofold: on the one hand, ensuring that reception facilities and asylum procedures are ready by 2026, and on the other, demonstrating to Brussels full administrative and political reliability in managing migration flows. Immediate prospects include active participation in the European Resettlement and Humanitarian Admission Plan for 2026-2027, aimed at creating legal entry channels for people fleeing conflict or persecution. At the same time, Rome will need to strengthen cooperation with countries of origin and transit, especially in North Africa, to reduce irregular departures and increase returns, as advocated by the Commission and European Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner. Implementation of the Pact will also offer financial opportunities. Access to the solidarity reserve and European support tools could help improve the logistical and infrastructural capacity of reception centers, as well as support local integration programs. However, these resources will be conditional on compliance with European standards regarding the registration, tracking, and management of asylum seekers. If the country manages to meet the deadlines and implement the required reforms, it will be able to consolidate its role as a key player in the management of the Union’s southern borders, gaining political and strategic recognition within the European context. Conversely, any delays could result in a loss of credibility and a reduction in the planned aid.
TOWARDS A STILL FRAGILE BALANCE
The first annual migration management cycle marks a fundamental step in the European Union’s journey toward more rational and supportive governance of migration flows. The system introduced aims to overcome the emergency mentality that has dominated the last decade by introducing tools for planning, monitoring, and the redistribution of responsibilities. However, the success of the project will depend on the political will of Member States to translate solidarity into concrete action. For Italy, 2026 will be a decisive year. It will benefit for the first time from a structured support mechanism capable of alleviating migratory pressure on its shores. Ultimately, the European Pact on Migration and Asylum represents a test of political maturity for the entire Union. If it works, it could mark the transition from fragmented and reactive management to a common policy based on the principles of balance and sharing. But if internal divisions prevail, Europe risks finding itself once again unprepared to face future migration challenges, leaving countries like Italy exposed to pressure that, even with new rules, remains structurally European.