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Can inflation occur in political statements? Probably yes. At least if the statements are about warning of political consequences that never come.
Since Donald Trump took office for his second term as president, European politicians and journalists have been appalled by all the spectacular statements that have come from the White House. This has concerned the view on NATO, Americans’ opinions on the EU and on Europe’s migration policy, the war in Ukraine, tariffs, the Nobel Peace Prize, Greenland and Denmark, and right now the war against Iran.
Donald Trump is not afraid to cause offence. He is not afraid to challenge or even irritate allies and friends. Nor is he afraid to think out loud or to speculate out loud in front of wide-eyed journalists who report everything he says.
An American president undoubtedly possesses a lot of power. Donald Trump is undeniably an unconventional politician. And it is undeniable that Trump has made several astonishing political moves. The threat to take Greenland by force, from Denmark, a friend and ally in Europe, was perhaps the most astonishing to date. At the time, speculation was high as to whether the United States would go to war against a NATO ally to seize new territory.
But there was never any military takeover of Greenland. Instead, Trump declared at the international summit in Davos that he could take Greenland if he wanted to… but that he doesn’t want to!
Even Donald Trump has limits to live by. The idea of incorporating Greenland into the United States, against the wishes of the Danes, never won support among the American population. There is a clear limit for him there. This fall is the mid-term elections and Trump risks losing a lot of his opportunities to get his policies through if he loses Congress to the Democrats.
There is currently a relatively large dissatisfaction among Republican voters with the Iran war. And the president’s popularity is slowly but surely decreasing among American voters. Among other things, due to rising oil prices because of the war in the Middle East. And if Trump decides not to accept an election result that is negative for him, he will lose just about everything he has left in the form of goodwill outside his most devoted support troops.
Trump has clearly shown that he is not afraid to act. His foreign policy is largely conducted with the help of threats of increased tariffs. He chose to actively enter Venezuela and capture President Maduro. And to the surprise of many, he launched, together with Israel, a comprehensive attack on Iran. But for Europe, Trump’s accession has not meant any dramatic changes. Now, Europeans are certainly investing large resources in their own defense, but most agree that this is only a good thing. Europe has no interest in being as dependent on the United States as it has long been.
On the other hand, Trump has talked, and threatened, and been angry and disappointed. And perhaps we should simply learn to live with this. Most recently, it is about Trump’s frustration that other countries that also depend on the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz are not stepping in on the side of the US and Israel in the war against Iran. On March 31, CNBC reported: “President Donald Trump has warned the U.K. and France that the “U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore,” as he vented his frustration over the close allies’ refusal to join military action against Iran.”
That is a dramatic statement. And it is not impossible that the U. K. and France will be influenced. But perhaps it is that the countries of Europe have stopped listening to all of Trump’s threats. It was the US and Israel that initiated the latest phase of the war against Iran and they will have to end the conflict themselves, many Europeans probably think. We have had enough of Ukraine.
Donald Trump’s USA is not an isolated island. Trump also needs friends. Trump’s USA also needs to maintain good relations with the EU and Europe.
In other words, we should continue to act as we have now learned to do. Don’t provoke Trump. Lay low with public comments. Wait and bide your time. It probably won’t happen much.