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The war in Ukraine continues to redefine the geopolitical balance, while diplomatic dialogue between the major powers appears increasingly fragile. The latest talks between the United States and Russia – concluded without any progress – confirm the absence of an immediate prospect of a cessation of hostilities and increasingly reveal the Kremlin’s willingness to support a protracted conflict not only in Ukraine, but potentially also with Europe. European and Atlantic reactions to this scenario reveal a united EU in deeming Moscow uninterested in peace, and a NATO committed to consolidating political, military and economic tools to strengthen deterrence. In this context, the central role of the Atlantic Alliance as the primary guarantor of security in the Euro-Atlantic space emerges, while member states discuss extraordinary measures to support Kyiv and contain Russian aggression.
THE DIPLOMATIC DEADLOCK BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA
The most recent round of talks between US and Russian delegations has once again highlighted the Kremlin’s lack of real concessions. Although described as “constructive” by Moscow, the meeting failed to yield any concrete progress, fueling widespread skepticism in Europe. The negotiations involved figures close to the American president, in an attempt to explore possible avenues for cooperation. The leak of a hypothetical joint peace plan sparked immediate criticism both in Kyiv and in major European countries, concerned about a solution that could freeze the conflict without addressing its causes. Added to this is the political factor represented by the recurring dialogue between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, which resumed months ago and culminated in a bilateral meeting this summer, followed by a second meeting that was canceled due to Moscow’s maximalist demands. In a context of uncertainty about America’s future posture, Europe appears even more determined to strengthen its diplomatic and economic pressure on the Kremlin.
EUROPEAN POSITIONS AND THE TWO-PILLAR STRATEGY
During the NATO Foreign Ministers’ meeting, several European countries emphasized the need to maintain a firm line toward Moscow. The shared analysis highlights how Russia has shown no real willingness in recent months to reach a ceasefire or compromise that respects Ukrainian sovereignty. From this perspective, a strategic plan is taking shape, based on two pillars: strengthening military and economic support for Kyiv, and increasing pressure on key sectors of the Russian economy – especially those related to gas and oil. The continuation of Ukrainian resistance, according to many ministers, depends on Europe’s ability to plan long-term interventions, especially financial ones. Hence the proposal to use part of the frozen Russian assets, approximately €200 billion, to establish a “reparation loan” aimed at guaranteeing immediate resources for the next two years. Supporters of the project, including Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania, believe this measure represents an essential negotiating lever to force Moscow to confront a stronger European decision-making role.
CONTROVERSIES OVER THE LOAN FROM RUSSIAN ASSETS
Despite the support of numerous member states, the proposal is facing significant resistance in Belgium, the country hosting a large portion of the frozen Russian assets. Brussels views the plan as economically risky and potentially legally problematic. The Belgian position emphasizes that such a far-reaching decision should be accompanied by guarantees of mutual solidarity, to prevent one member state from having to bear the potential consequences of an action deemed unprecedented under European law. This internal divergence within the EU reveals the political complexity of the operation and draws attention to the need for a clear regulatory framework. In this context, the strategic value of coordination between NATO and the European Union emerges, especially in defining economic instruments consistent with the political and military pressure exerted by the Alliance.
NATO AS A GUARANTEE OF SECURITY IN THE EURO-ATLANTIC AREA
The evolution of the conflict has led to an increasingly important role for NATO, which presents itself as an indispensable player in managing the new international instability. For months, Alliance leaders have explicitly emphasized the need to strengthen Europe’s defense capabilities and prepare for a strategic horizon in which Russia could once again be able to directly threaten a member state. The articulation of the foreign ministers’ positions demonstrates how NATO is now the primary political and military forum capable of maintaining a cohesive Western response and coordinating the initiatives of individual countries. The partial interruption of contact between the US and European militaries adds a further layer of complexity, increasing uncertainty about America’s long-term commitment to the Alliance. Precisely for this reason, many European capitals consider NATO not merely a military alliance, but an essential political infrastructure for ensuring interoperability, deterrence and a unified response capability in an increasingly fragmented international system.
THE PROSPECT OF A RUSSIAN MILITARY THREAT BY 2029
Alongside the diplomatic debate, there is growing awareness in Europe that Russia, despite its military involvement in Ukraine, is planning a rapid rearmament. A NATO assessment has estimated that, within three to five years, Moscow could restore operational capabilities sufficient to make a credible attack against a member country. The report suggests the Kremlin could mobilize up to 1.5 million fully equipped military personnel thanks to expanded weapons production and intensified recruitment programs. This forecast, while not implying certain aggression, has prompted several European governments to rapidly redefine their defense strategies. Among these is Germany, which has taken a particularly active role, recognizing the need to make up for years of underinvestment. The German government’s declaration on the need to make Germany “war-ready” by 2029 raises questions about its military role within NATO, but at the same time represents a direct response to the possible evolution of the Russian threat.
GERMAN REARMAMENT AND THE CHANGING EUROPEAN POSTURE
Germany has initiated an unprecedented transformation of its military, dramatically increasing its defense budget to over €150 billion. The introduction of voluntary conscription, accompanied by the option of making it mandatory, reflects a profound cultural shift in a country historically cautious about the use of military force. The initiative aims to restore the armed forces’ strength to over 200,000, supported by investments in training, salaries, and advanced technologies. These interventions are intertwined with NATO’s calls for member states to assume a more autonomous and responsible role in European defense. The recent call by the US ambassador to the Alliance for Germany to take a leading role reflects a structural trend that could profoundly alter the internal balance of power within NATO in the coming years.
NATO’S STRATEGIC ROLE IN THE CURRENT PHASE
The Ukrainian conflict and the risk of rapid Russian rearmament have brought NATO back to the center of international dynamics. The Alliance now finds itself operating as an essential platform for both collective security and the political management of transatlantic relations. Its deterrent function remains the cornerstone of European stability, but its role is expanding to include the definition of economic strategies, the management of threat perceptions, and long-term planning for possible escalation. The picture emerging in recent weeks shows a NATO that must reconcile the uncertainties associated with US commitment with Europe’s growing strategic autonomy, in a context in which Russia appears willing to negotiate only from a position of strength. The Alliance’s ability to maintain internal cohesion and coordinate the efforts of its members is therefore crucial to avoiding further destabilization.
BETWEEN A DIPLOMACY AT A STANDSTILL AND STRATEGIC REORIENTATION
The international landscape reveals a combination of factors that complicate the path to a resolution of the Ukrainian conflict. The lack of progress in talks between the United States and Russia, Moscow’s growing assertiveness, and European divisions over certain economic instruments point to a period of great uncertainty. However, the emerging picture also reveals an acceleration in the process of strengthening European defence and the growing centrality of NATO as an indispensable political and military player. In an era marked by the fragility of the international order, the Atlantic Alliance appears to be the only player capable of providing a coordinated and credible response to growing instability, assuming a decisive role not only for the security of its members, but also for the future global balance.