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The European Union is currently undergoing profound transformation. On the one hand, recent Eurobarometer data show growing citizen support for the idea of a broader and more supportive Union, with 56% of Europeans in favour of enlargement to new countries. On the other, BiDimedia surveys show that the continent’s political map is shifting significantly to the right, with significant gains by conservative, liberal-conservative, and nationalist forces in almost all member states. The interplay between these two dynamics—institutional expansion and ideological mutation—is one of the main areas of political debate in Europe today. In particular, it is interesting to consider how enlargement could strengthen the conservative camp within European institutions, altering the internal balance and the very way the Union’s identity is defined.
CITIZENS’ CONSENSUS AND THE NEW IMPULSE FOR ENLARGEMENT
Eurobarometer surveys reveal that, following the war in Ukraine and the growing perception of external threats, European public opinion has rediscovered the importance of a broader and more cohesive Union. The percentage of citizens in favour of enlargement stands at 56%, with very high levels in Northern Europe—Sweden (79%), Denmark (75%) and Lithuania (74%)—and lower levels in countries like Austria and France, where scepticism remains strong. The most significant figure, however, concerns young people, who are the most enthusiastic supporters of a more inclusive Europe: 67% of those aged 15 to 24 and 63% of those aged 25 to 39. At the same time, the survey shows that citizens associate enlargement not only with a strengthening of the EU’s geopolitical clout (37%), but also with an improvement in the internal market and greater solidarity among member states. However, concerns remain: fears of increased costs for taxpayers, uncontrolled migration flows, and corruption accompany positive perceptions, painting an ambivalent picture in which the aspiration for unity coexists with economic and social prudence.
THE SOCIAL ECONOMY AS A TOOL FOR EUROPEAN COHESION
Another crucial aspect highlighted by the Eurobarometer concerns the social economy, which is considered by three-quarters of European citizens as a pillar of collective well-being. The vast majority of respondents are calling for stronger support for third sector organizations through financial incentives and awareness campaigns, recognizing them as an element of identity and cohesion for European society. In Italy, for example, over 80% of the population considers the social economy essential to quality of life and solidarity, and more than half report having participated in volunteer activities or donations. This orientation reflects a vision of Europe that is not limited to the economic or bureaucratic sphere, but is founded on shared values of inclusion, mutuality and social responsibility. Citizens’ interest in a more ethical and participatory economy intersects in an interesting way with the growing demand for stability and security, two principles that conservative parties have successfully reinterpreted and promoted in their political discourse. The convergence between an enlargement based on solidarity and a conservative vision focused on the defence of national values and identities provides both a platform for dialogue and, at the same time, ideological tension.
EASTERN ENLARGEMENT AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR EUROPEAN CONSERVATISM
The enlargement debate currently focuses primarily on the countries of the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe: Albania, Montenegro, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Turkey are the nine official candidate states, with Kosovo added as a potential candidate. The prospect of including these nations entails an inevitable rebalancing of the political balance within the Union. Many of these countries share a more conservative and nationalist political culture, influenced both by religious tradition and the post-Soviet experience. In this sense, their accession could strengthen the already growing conservative component of the European Parliament. Data released in recent weeks by the BiDimedia center confirms this trend: in Eastern and Central Eastern Europe, right-wing and center-right forces are consistently at the top of the polls. In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform—a grassroots and moderately conservative party—leads with nearly 40%, followed by the more nationalist Law and Justice party at 30%. In Estonia, the center-right Ismaa party dominates, while in Lithuania, the center-right Christian Democrats maintain a decisive role. The inclusion of these countries in the Union would not only broaden Europe’s geopolitical base, but could consolidate a conservative majority capable of influencing the EU’s economic, migration, and value-based policies.
THE RISE OF CONSERVATISM IN WESTERN EUROPE
If Eastern Europe represents the frontier of cultural conservatism, Western Europe is also showing a rise in right-wing parties. In Germany, Alternative für Deutschland reaches 26%, surpassing the Christian Democratic Union and leaving the Socialists behind. In Austria, the FPO reaches 34%, and in the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party leads the voting intentions with an estimated 26 seats. The trend is similar in Southern European countries. In Spain, the Partido Popular surpasses 30% and appears to be the driving force behind a possible alliance with Vox, while in Italy, the governing right wing is consolidating a cross-party consensus. In the United Kingdom, despite being outside the EU, the growth of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to 29% confirms that the conservative wind is blowing strongly even across the Channel. This dynamic suggests that, should the European Union expand further, the new internal balance could mirror the continent’s current political orientation, with a predominance of conservative and national-popular families in the Parliament and the Commission.
POLITICAL DIVISIONS WITHIN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
The enlargement process, however, is not without obstacles. The divergences that have emerged within the European Parliament—particularly on the case of Ukraine—highlight how enlargement is also a testing ground for different visions of Europe. On the one hand, conservative representatives emphasize the need to respect the accession criteria, opposing shortcuts or extraordinary procedures; on the other, progressive groups view Kiev’s integration as an essential political gesture to defend European democratic values against Russian authoritarianism. The discussion is intertwined with the issue of institutional reform, particularly the proposal to move beyond the principle of unanimity in favour of qualified majority voting. For many conservatives, maintaining the right of veto represents a guarantee of national sovereignty and protection against decisions perceived as imposed by large member states. Conversely, proponents of greater integration believe that unanimity paralyzes the decision-making process and makes the EU less effective.
YOUNG PEOPLE, VALUES AND NEW POLITICAL PRIORITIES
The Eurobarometer survey highlights a seemingly contradictory fact: young Europeans are the most supportive of enlargement, yet some of them are sympathetic to identitarian and conservative movements. This convergence is no coincidence. Enlargement, perceived as a symbol of openness and opportunity, is accompanied by the search for stability, security and identity—values that contemporary conservatism has successfully reinterpreted from a European perspective. Furthermore, the spread of the social economy, which promotes participatory and sustainable models, could become a meeting point between young progressives and the new moderate right. Both political groups share, albeit for different reasons, the idea of an economy more rooted in the local area and less dependent on large global capital. In this sense, enlargement to include countries with a strong tradition of community and solidarity could offer the conservative camp the opportunity to redefine its image in a more social and less exclusive way.
STRATEGIC BENEFITS FOR THE CONSERVATIVE CAMP
In light of the data considered, EU enlargement could produce structural benefits for the conservative camp. First, it would amplify the presence of countries with traditional political cultures, in which family, religious and national values remain central. This new balance could impact future majorities in the European Parliament, strengthening the EPP and Reformist Conservative groups. Second, eastward expansion would allow the conservative block to promote a more flexible and less centralized model of the Union, in which subsidiarity and national sovereignty remain key principles. The accession of culturally conservative states such as Serbia or Georgia would provide a counterweight to progressive federalist integrationism. Finally, enlargement could offer right-wing parties a new European political language, based not on closure but on the idea of a “greater Europe of nations,” capable of defending its borders and values without sacrificing cooperation.
TOWARDS A NEW EUROPEAN SYNTHESIS
A comparative analysis of Eurobarometer and BiDimedia data shows that contemporary Europe is undergoing a dual movement: an institutional expansion toward new geographical horizons and an ideological shift toward conservatism. EU enlargement, far from posing a threat to political pluralism, could actually foster a redefinition of the European political centre, in which conservatism presents itself as a balancing force between sovereignty and integration, tradition and innovation. From this perspective, Europe’s future will depend not only on its ability to welcome new members, but also on its capacity to build a new political pact between its two souls: the progressive, which views inclusion as a tool for social justice, and the conservative, which sees enlargement as a way to consolidate a more stable, rooted Union, respectful of national identities.