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How Targeted Government Policies Helped Cut Early School Leaving While Parts of Northern Europe Struggled
Over the past decade, early school leaving has been one of the most closely monitored social indicators in the European Union. Reducing the share of young people aged 18 to 24 who abandon education without completing upper secondary school is not only a matter of social inclusion, but also a prerequisite for long-term economic competitiveness. The EU has set a clear objective for 2030: bringing this rate below 9 percent across the Union. According to the latest available data for 2024, Europe stands at 9.4 percent—close to the target, but not there yet.
Behind this near-miss lies a story of sharply diverging national trajectories. Southern European countries, long considered structurally weak on education outcomes, have driven much of the EU-wide improvement. Among them, Italy stands out as a case of steady and policy-driven progress, reflecting deliberate government action rather than cyclical or accidental change.
Data analyzed by Onepolis on the basis of Eurostat figures show that the overall European improvement has been largely powered by Mediterranean countries. Spain reduced its early school leaving rate from a striking 21.9 percent to 13 percent, while Portugal achieved an even more dramatic shift, cutting its rate from 17.3 percent to 6.6 percent. These are structural transformations, not marginal adjustments. Similar, though less pronounced, trends can be observed in Malta, Greece, and Italy, with reductions of 7.4, 6, and 5.2 percentage points respectively.
Italy’s performance deserves particular attention. Starting from a historically high baseline, the country has managed to reduce early school leaving by more than five points over the past decade. This progress is not the result of a single reform, but of a coordinated strategy pursued by successive governments and strengthened in recent years. Key measures include expanded vocational education pathways, stronger links between schools and local labor markets, and targeted interventions in high-risk regions, particularly in the South.
Italian governments have increasingly recognized that early school leaving is not just an educational issue, but a social one. Investments have been directed toward combating poverty-related dropout, improving school infrastructure, and supporting students through mentoring, tutoring, and digital inclusion programs. The expansion of technical and professional institutes has offered credible alternatives to purely academic tracks, reducing disengagement among students less inclined toward traditional schooling.
Crucially, Italy has also made effective use of European funds, particularly through cohesion policy instruments and, more recently, resources linked to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. These funds have been channeled into modernizing schools, training teachers, and strengthening guidance services. The result is a gradual but tangible cultural shift: staying in education is increasingly perceived as both attainable and worthwhile.
The contrast with parts of Northern Europe is striking. Germany, often regarded as a benchmark for vocational training and labor market integration, has seen its early school leaving rate rise by 3.4 percentage points in recent years. Denmark follows with an increase of 2.3 points, while Lithuania and Cyprus have recorded rises of 2.5 and 4.5 points respectively. Although changes in data collection methods over time complicate long-term comparisons, the scale of these increases is significant enough to warrant concern.
These reversals highlight an important lesson: strong starting positions do not guarantee continued success. Demographic changes, migration pressures, and evolving labor markets can quickly erode previously stable systems if policy responses lag behind. In this context, Italy’s progress appears even more noteworthy. Rather than relying on inherited strengths, the country has pursued active governance, adapting its education system to new social realities.
While Italy has not yet reached the EU’s 2030 target, its trajectory is clearly aligned with it. The remaining challenge is to consolidate gains and address persistent territorial disparities. However, the direction is set. Italy’s experience demonstrates that sustained political attention, combined with targeted investment and pragmatic reform, can deliver measurable results even in structurally complex environments.
As Europe approaches the final stretch toward its 2030 goal, Italy’s case offers a valuable example: reducing early school leaving is not merely a question of wealth or tradition, but of policy choices—and the determination to see them through.
Alessandro Fiorentino