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Between the end of 2025 and the first days of 2026, numerous international newspapers, specialized magazines, and geopolitical analysis centers have paid increasing attention to the main elections scheduled in the European Union. This widespread interest reflects the awareness that the new round of consultations represents not a simple succession of national deadlines, but a potentially decisive step in redefining the continent’s political and institutional balance. Europe approaches these elections in a context marked by the ongoing war in Ukraine, a growing fragmentation of domestic consensus, persistent tensions in transatlantic relations, and profound socioeconomic changes affecting Member States.
THE VOTING SCENARIO
In this scenario, the vote takes on a significance that transcends the domestic dimension, directly impacting the Union’s ability to act as an internationally coherent political actor and to maintain effective governance within its borders. For this reason, although media attention has already highlighted the most immediate possible outcomes of the consultations, a more in-depth and systematic analysis of the ongoing electoral dynamics is necessary. Only through a comparative analysis of the different national contexts is it possible to more precisely outline the scenarios that could emerge within European institutions in the coming months and years. In particular, studying the evolution of consensus towards conservative and national-conservative political families allows us to assess their potential impact on the functioning of the European Council, the European Parliament, and the overall direction of EU policies, in a historical period characterized by high uncertainty and growing political competition.
THE EUROPEAN POLITICAL CONTEXT AFTER 2025
The European Union’s accession in 2026 follows a busy and politically significant electoral year. Indeed, events in 2025 foreshadowed some of the dynamics under discussion today. In Romania, the elections were marked by coordinated campaigns and foreign interference on social media. In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk failed to decisively strengthen his party’s position in the presidential race. Meanwhile, Germany saw the Christian Democrats return to power, while in the Czech Republic, conservative Andrej Babiš secured another electoral victory. These developments are set against the backdrop of an ongoing war in Ukraine, deep disagreements between member states over how to support Kiev, and increasingly tense relations with the United States. In this context, the 2026 elections take on a significance that goes beyond the national dimension, looming as potential factors in redefining European geopolitics.
HUNGARY: A POSSIBLE TURNING POINT FOR THE EUROPEAN CONSERVATIVE CAMP
Of all the upcoming elections, the Hungarian one appears particularly significant for the entire structure of the Union. The 2026 vote could end the longest uninterrupted term of a prime minister in the EU. Viktor Orbán, already in power between 1998 and 2002 and then permanently since 2010, is running for a sixth term in a profoundly changed political context. His leadership is now challenged by Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz member and now leader of the opposition Tisza party. Although the two parties do not have marked differences on social issues, Magyar’s proposal focuses on the need to improve Hungarians’ purchasing power and rebuild more cooperative relations with Brussels. This aspect is central in light of European cohesion funds, the release of which is conditional on respect for the rule of law. The most recent polls indicate a significant lead for Tisza, around thirteen percentage points, but the final outcome remains open. Whatever the outcome, the impact of the Hungarian vote will transcend national borders. Orbán is a key figure in European national conservatism and maintains a strong political affinity with the vision of US President Donald Trump. His positions on migration, democratic standards, and especially the war in Ukraine differ significantly from the prevailing approach in the EU. A possible change of leadership in Budapest could substantially alter the decision-making dynamics within the European Council, at a crucial moment for the future of support for Kyiv.
SECURITY, INTERFERENCE, AND DEMOCRATIC MAINTENANCE: THE SWEDISH CASE
The general elections scheduled for September in Sweden come amid growing concerns about national security and foreign interference in democratic processes. The coalition government, which includes centrist, socialist, liberal, and Christian Democrat parties, maintains similar support levels to those of previous elections but faces rising crime rates. The primary concern, however, is potential external interference. Strengthening cybersecurity capabilities addresses fears of operations similar to those already observed in other European countries. Such interference could benefit political forces more ambivalent toward Russia.
NORTHERN AND EASTERN EUROPE
Also in Northern Europe, Denmark is preparing for a national vote amid growing uncertainty. The Social Democrats’ loss in Copenhagen and the weakening of Mette Frederiksen’s governing coalition suggest a possible change in leadership. The hard line on migrants, adopted in recent years, does not appear to have produced the desired electoral results. Added to this are concerns over the Kingdom’s territorial integrity, rekindled by US statements on Greenland.
In Eastern Europe, Bulgaria represents a prime example of political instability. Adoption of the euro in January 2026 marks a historic step, but the country remains mired in an institutional crisis that began with the government’s resignation following protests against corruption and the oligarchies. November’s presidential elections, along with parliamentary elections, could end the stalemate and redefine Bulgaria’s role within the EU.
SLOVENIA AND LATVIA: ELECTORAL COMPETITION AND POLITICAL SYSTEM FRAGMENTATION
The parliamentary elections scheduled in Slovenia and Latvia contribute to completing the picture of a particularly politically and institutionally charged 2026, offering two emblematic examples of the governance difficulties facing many European political systems. In Slovenia, opinion polls show a slight advantage for the center-right opposition over the current center-left majority led by Prime Minister Robert Golob. However, this margin appears insufficient to ensure clear governability in the post-election period. The Slovenian party system is characterized by growing fragmentation, accentuated by the entry onto the political scene of new formations that attract a volatile and increasingly declining electorate. This context makes it likely that a complex negotiation phase will be necessary to form a government, with the risk of unstable coalitions or short-lived governments. In Latvia, the October parliamentary elections will play a decisive role in determining the future of the current center-right coalition led by Prime Minister Evika Siliņa. Polls indicate a lead for the conservative National Alliance, suggesting a possible strengthening of political forces more inclined to a cautious stance on European integration and particularly sensitive to issues of security and national identity. In both cases, the outcome of the elections will not only influence domestic politics, but could also impact the two countries’ ability to effectively position themselves within the European Union’s decision-making processes, at a time when cohesion and institutional stability are taking on increasing strategic importance.
FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS
Taken together, the elections scheduled for 2026 outline a complex and potentially transformative scenario for the European Union, in which national dynamics are increasingly intertwined with supranational decision-making processes. The potential strengthening, or even the possible weakening, of conservative and national-conservative forces will not only have consequences for individual states, but will also have direct effects on the functioning of the main European institutions. In particular, these outcomes could impact the internal balance of power within the European Council, impacting the ability to reach compromises on key issues such as support for Ukraine, migration policies, the energy transition, and respect for the rule of law. At the same time, the 2026 consultations will help define the balance of power between political groups in the European Parliament and guide the legislative priorities of the next phase of the institutional cycle. In a context characterized by growing external pressures and greater internal polarization, the stability of the Union’s decision-making mechanisms will largely depend on the ability of political forces to translate electoral consensus into governance strategies that are coherent and compatible with the EU framework. For these reasons, an analysis that goes beyond the contingent dimension of electoral competition is essential to understand the political trajectories that will shape Europe in the medium term and to assess the degree of stability, or possible reorientation, of European integration in the years to come.