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In Sweden there is a debate among conservatives about the methods by which they must reconquer their nation from destructive liberals and progressives. Should it be with compromise, pragmatism, and whilst abiding by all the rules of statecraft set up by a former generation of politicians? Or should it be a swift and ruthless rug-pull from under the feet of the progressives who have brought such destitution to our country?
The two sides, described somewhat generally and not overly precisely here, started appearing as the current centre-right government, supported by the nationalist Sweden Democrats, became criticised from the right for its slow pace of reforms, and few positive results. The conflict is recognised in many other countries as well, where a sense of urgency in saving the country from mounting problems is competing with the appreciation for sustainable and stable government. It can be characterised as a conflict between populism and the rule of law, depending on how far each side goes.
When there is a mission to save a nation from certain doom, a lot of options are opened. Conventions may be broken, rules of the legislature may be skirted, laws may be passed despite legitimate scrutiny from legal reviews and interest groups.
The risk however, is that this sets a precedent for the future of politics, which will further and further justify the goal over the means. Without adherence to the common protocol of parliamentary democracy, however rigid it may be in certain countries, the risk is overwhelming that the next government in charge will undo everything one has rushed through. A revolution is often overthrown as quickly as it rises.
But what if the doom creeps irreversibly close, while the politicians are busy churning important legislation through months and years of bureaucracy? Fair play in politics does the citizens no good, if they still lose their country to uncontrolled immigration, Islamisation, and crime. This is the fine line that conservatives in the West must walk.
The boogeyman in Sweden: Hungary
The threat of far-reaching conservative reforms are often fended off in Sweden by evoking the political development of Hungary, under the Fidesz party and Viktor Orbán. Generally, any promotion of traditional family values, nativism, and Christian religion is likened to Sweden being turned into an authoritarian pariah state, often with implications of pro-Russian leanings.
While the truth about Hungary is certainly more complex than that, this is the image of the country that has endured in the minds of many liberals and progressives in Europe. It is rooted in many reforms that have been undertaken by the Fidesz government that are seen as unproportional, illiberal, and cementing the power of Fidesz and party-adjacent oligarchs at the expense of the opposition. Actions that cause emotional reactions, such as the migrant crisis era rejection of asylum seekers, and more recently, the constitutional ban of pride parades, also contribute to the image of Hungary as not respecting the rule of law and human rights.
As the conservative transformation of Hungary has taken place within a relatively short amount of time, largely under the influence of one party, Fidesz, and one strongman in particular, Viktor Orbán, it is portrayed as the best example of an uncompromising, contemporary right-wing revolution. And these are now the seeds that have been sown; the left-wing alternative has promised to “replace” the Fidesz system, which it deems “impossible to repair or reform”, as per the words of opposition leader Péter Magyar of the Tisza party. As quickly as the ‘revolution’ started, it may become reversed.
The success of the conservatives and nationalists in Hungary has for the past few years been seen as a model for nationalists in other parts of Europe. Orbán has been spearheading policies aimed to reduce progressive and liberal institutional chokeholds on education and culture, kept the immigration of non-Europeans to an absolute minimum, and introduced measures to raise the fertility of native Hungarians.
Are all of these reforms at risk if the left wing succeeds Fidesz in the next election? If the opposition of Hungary is intending to be as belligerent as they perceive the Orbán government to have been, the risk is high that Hungary could make a radical u-turn, into the brace of globalists and progressivists. Careful considerations must be made before conservatives in the heart of Europe decide to emulate Viktor Orbán, because his utopia may prove to have been a flash in the pan.
The Polish situation
The development in Poland after PiS, Law and Justice, lost control of government in 2023 may be a taste of what is to come for Hungary. The government of Donald Tusk has been using accusatory rhetoric about Law and Justice controlling several institutions in Poland, such as the public service television channel. Executives and other personnel on the television service connected to Law and Justice were replaced, sometimes very controversially with people with obvious ties to the Tusk government. Parts of the judiciary and state prosecutors appointed under Law and Justice were swiftly fired, and key persons in several other agencies were replaced, all with the motivation to “end Law and Justice’s occupation of state institutions”. All the while, former Law and Justice ministers of government have been arrested and charged with various forms of corruption.
Evidently Polish liberals believe that conservative infiltration and power abuse runs very deep, and will neglect some constitutional expectations in order to get on top of it. The Polish presidency, still held by Law and Justice’s Andrzej Duda, has accused the Tusk government of violating the rule of law and the country’s constitution with its heavy-handed sweep through all levels of official society. The stage is thus set for belligerence from both parties, who clearly believe they are fighting a deeply corrupt and immoral system. The next time conservatives win control over Poland, similar scenes to what is taking place under Tusk are likely to play out – with the roles reversed.
Interestingly, in Poland as well as in Hungary, the conservatives and nationalists constitute the institutional power, while the progressives and liberals play the part of the populist crusaders against corruption – in Western Europe, this relationship is commonly the reverse, with the institutions controlled by the left, while the right fights an uphill battle. Nevertheless, the polarisation that causes this distrust between the left and the right still reflects the tendencies we see in Western Europe. It merely takes a different shape in the former Eastern Bloc, where the situation is influenced by the history of communist regimes.
The backlash against Trump
For a country that is more comparable to the Western European situation, the United States under Donald Trump is perhaps the most daring experiment that conservatives in Europe could learn from. While Trump has been fruitfully delivering on some promises, such as ending mass migration to the United States, what is the price of his fight against entrenched leftism in Washington and in the universities?
The consequences of the current iteration of Trumpism have been speculated on widely in global media ever since the day Trump assumed office. An American brain drain, the decline of US soft power, and the failure of public US services and infrastructure have been proposed as ramifications to various of his policies. Politically, some say that conservatives, namely Republicans, may be locked out of power for a long time to come when the dust has settled. Right-wing radicalism produces left-wingers, just as the previous years of left-wing lunacy produced right-wingers.
The jury is still out on what Trump’s second term will do for the conservative and nationalist ambition in the US. If Poland and Hungary are anything to go by, Republicans need to be willing to fight tooth and nail the next time they are in power, because the cycle of ruthlessness from both conservatives and progressivists is likely to continue once it has been set in motion.
Which countries will be best off in two generations, when the fruits of today’s labours are paying off? Will it be today’s brightest stars in the conservative sky, the radical and energised Hungary and the US? Or will it be Sweden, with its tortoise-paced politics? Or will the country have succumbed to its many challenges before the tortoise has reached the finish line?