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The Strait of Hormuz, as reported in recent weeks by much of the international media, is one of the most strategic maritime arteries through which more than 20% of global energy trade passes. Located between Iran and Oman, this strait is about 50 km long and just 33 km wide at its narrowest points, and is a bottleneck for supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Persian Gulf. Recent events, such as the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran’s threats to block naval passage, have brought to the fore the risks associated with this area, above all its possible interdiction by Iran.
WHY AN ANALYSIS WITH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AT ITS CENTER?
At this juncture of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, also following the intervention of the US Administration, the analysis of the strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz, the economic and geopolitical implications of its possible closure, the consequences on global energy markets and the repercussions on Western economies – with particular attention to the European context – remains of fundamental interest. These are the issues that could help us understand what line of action a cornered Iran could undertake, as well as the moves of international chancelleries (especially European ones) with a view to continuing the conflict.
A STRATEGIC AND ECONOMIC VALUE
According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration – data also reported in recent days by various media and analysts who have focused on this topic – approximately 17 million barrels of oil and a significant quantity of liquefied natural gas pass through Hormuz every day. Exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iran are tied to this route to reach European and Asian markets. Therefore, any threat to free navigation in the strait has an immediate and potentially devastating impact on global energy supply – especially European, considering the closure of Russian channels following the conflict in Ukraine. This logistical centrality gives the Strait of Hormuz a strategic value capable of influencing, with the simple decision to close the passage, regional and international geopolitical balances. The possibility that Iran may decide to limit or make this route unsafe is perceived as one of the main levers in its foreign policy, especially in moments of tension with the United States and its regional allies. We can imagine how important this lever could become in a context of open armed conflict such as the one we are experiencing.
RECENT TENSIONS, IRANIAN THREATS AND A LOOK TO THE PAST
The US attack on Iranian nuclear sites has certainly fueled fears of an escalation. In response, Tehran has threatened to close the Strait, a possibility that deeply worries Western chancelleries and financial markets. Although there are currently no concrete signs of an imminent closure, the threat was enough to provoke an immediate reaction on energy markets, for example with the increase in gas prices. The current tensions evoke scenarios similar to those observed during the Yom Kippur War in the 1970s, when the world witnessed a surge in energy prices due to Middle Eastern conflicts. However, the current situation is aggravated by greater global economic interdependence and by the fragility of European economies, already severely tested by the energy crisis following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
ENERGY MARKETS REACT
The impact of even a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be immediate and significant. The repercussions would extend well beyond the Middle East, affecting the entire global energy system. Markets are already facing consequences of this possibility with higher energy commodity prices, supply shortages and, ultimately, a new wave of price increases for households and businesses. The most immediate risk would be a surge in oil prices, with consequences for transportation costs, industrial production and consumer goods. Economies that are heavily dependent on energy imports, such as those in Europe, would be particularly vulnerable. Meanwhile, global stock markets are showing signs of nervousness, and the maritime and air transport sectors are already affected by route diversions and airspace restrictions. In contexts of growing geopolitical instability such as those determined by military conflicts in the Gulf region, air and maritime traffic undergoes significant operational and strategic changes. Following the closure of Iranian and Iraqi airspace, and the simultaneous increase in risk in Syrian space, many international airlines have been forced to change their flight plans. These changes have led to significant lengthening of travel times. The maritime sector is also deeply concerned: a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would block naval access to the main hubs in the Gulf.
THE IMPACT ON EUROPE AND ITALY
Europe imports approximately 20-25% of its energy needs from the Persian Gulf, with direct transit through Hormuz estimated at around 13% for crude oil and 6% for gas, according to Eurostat data. A closure of the strait would have knock-on effects on European refineries and energy-intensive industries. The main risk is a new crisis in bills for families and businesses, already tested by inflation and market instability. In Italy, the government has already started studying emergency measures such as decoupling the price of gas and electricity, discounts on bills for businesses and new fixed-term contracts to control prices. However, the adoption of a coordinated European strategy remains complex due to the divergences between the various Member States in terms of energy mix, infrastructure and storage capacity.
LOGISTICAL ALTERNATIVES AND LIMITATIONS
Of course, there are some alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, but their capacity is limited. These include the Saudi “East-West” pipeline or the United Arab Emirates pipeline to the port of Fujairah. However, these infrastructures are not sufficient to compensate for a possible total blockage of the Strait, especially in terms of liquefied gas, which requires regasification terminals that are not always available. Furthermore, the use of alternative routes involves higher logistics costs and longer delivery times, with inevitable repercussions on the final prices of energy and consumer goods. The risk is, therefore, that the Iranian threat alone will be enough to make the entire global energy supply chain more uncertain and expensive.
THE IMPLICATIONS ARE GLOBAL, NOT JUST REGIONAL
Every Iranian action on the Strait of Hormuz has repercussions well beyond the energy sphere. Iran faces a strategic dilemma: blocking Hormuz would also mean damaging economic allies such as China and Russia, the main buyers of its oil. Furthermore, such a gesture would constitute an escalation that could justify Western military intervention, with the concrete risk of transforming the crisis (already very complex) into a large-scale regional conflict. Tehran is, therefore, aware that it has an important, but also very dangerous, lever in its hands. Every decision, in this context, is evaluated by the Supreme Council for National Security under the authority of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. The choice of a formal closure, or even just a progressive destabilization of the maritime passage, could constitute the point of no return for a new war in the Gulf.
ENERGY SECURITY STILL DEPENDS ON THIS ROUTE
Ultimately, the Strait of Hormuz is now more than ever a crossroads not only in energy, but also in politics and strategy. Its closure would have systemic effects on the global economy, triggering an energy, financial and diplomatic crisis of potentially unprecedented proportions. The recent tensions between the United States and Iran have once again highlighted its centrality, showing how the geopolitics of energy remains one of the cornerstones of the new international balance. In this scenario, Europe finds itself having to face a crisis whose room for maneuver is limited. Investments and diversification of supplies, along with international cooperation, remain the only tools available to face an increasingly uncertain future. But in the short term, the stability of the Strait of Hormuz remains an essential condition for global energy security.