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Despite waning environmental focus in several member states, the European Commission confirms progress toward 2030 climate objectives. A more ambitious 2040 target is expected this summer—and it’s already stirring controversy.
At a time when environmental priorities appear to be fading in parts of the European Union, the European Commission has delivered a note of cautious optimism: the bloc is collectively on track to meet its 2030 emissions reduction goals. The announcement came on Wednesday, May 28, as the EU executive prepares to unveil a new climate target for 2040 later this summer.
According to the Commission’s latest assessment, the EU is on course to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 54% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels—provided that member states fully implement existing and planned national and EU-wide climate measures. The current legally binding goal, set under legislation that entered into force in 2021, is a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030, with the long-term aim of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. “The evaluation by the European Commission shows that the European Union is currently on the right path to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by around 54% by 2030, relative to 1990 levels,” the Commission stated. “This progress hinges on full implementation of national policies and EU regulations, both current and forthcoming.”
In a press release issued from Brussels, the Commission praised member states for their political resolve in tackling climate change. The document highlighted efforts to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, improve energy infrastructure resilience and security, and accelerate the integration of the internal energy market. It also underscored ongoing efforts to support vulnerable communities through investment and skill development. Speaking to the press this morning, EU Commissioner for Climate Action and Green Growth, Wopke Hoekstra, emphasized the achievements to date: “The European Union has already reduced emissions by 37% since 1990, including an 8% drop in 2023 alone. We are well on track to continue along this path.”
Hoekstra also noted the role of the Social Climate Fund, which is designed to support low-income households and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly in the construction and transport sectors. “This fund will offer targeted assistance to ensure that the green transition does not leave anyone behind,” he added. While the 2030 goal now seems achievable, uncertainty surrounds the EU’s next climate milestone: the 2040 target. The Commission has so far remained tight-lipped about the specifics, acknowledging the sensitivity of the issue. Asked recently about the timeline, Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen confirmed that a formal proposal would be presented “by the summer.”
She also noted that the idea of a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040, compared to 1990 levels, “is a basis for discussion.” Talks are ongoing with national governments and businesses to determine what is both environmentally necessary and economically viable. The prospect of a 90% reduction target has already sparked intense debate. Environmental groups view it as the minimum acceptable ambition to stay within the limits of the Paris Agreement. Many industry groups, however, warn that such a steep target could endanger competitiveness, especially in energy-intensive sectors.
Achieving a 90% cut would require a dramatic acceleration of decarbonization efforts across Europe. Experts suggest that only a combination of aggressive electrification, mass deployment of renewable energy, deep efficiency improvements, and the widespread adoption of carbon capture technologies could make it feasible within 15 years. Moreover, the geopolitical context has further complicated the picture. The energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the vulnerabilities in Europe’s energy supply chain, prompting an urgent shift toward energy independence and diversification. The climate transition is now not only about emissions—it’s about energy security, economic stability, and strategic autonomy.
As the Commission finalizes its proposal for the 2040 target, the balance between ambition and pragmatism will be crucial. A too-radical approach risks alienating key stakeholders and undermining support for the broader Green Deal. Yet a lack of ambition could call into question the EU’s credibility as a global climate leader. What is clear is that the coming weeks will be pivotal. With the 2030 milestone nearly within reach, attention turns to shaping a post-2030 agenda that is both transformative and inclusive. The next chapter of Europe’s climate strategy is about to be written—and the world will be watching.
Alessandro Fiorentino