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The young of Europe are turning their backs on climate issues, and are becoming more concerned with security.
A recent survey in Sweden from Rasmussen Analys confirms the trend that has been identified for the past few years, in that 15–29 year-olds are increasingly adjusting their political and social priorities from idealistic pursuits to more ‘worldly’ matters. The top priorities of young people in Sweden today isn’t the climate (which stood as the highest ranking issue for 54 percent of respondents at its peak in 2019, but is now 15 percent), it is healthcare, school, crime and personal safety. Even elder care now ranks higher than the climate among 15–29 year-olds, which could be considered humorous.
This type of research on how the public weighs various issues compared to each other is conducted yearly, and it always leads to major headlines in Sweden – the country of climate activist Greta Thunberg, and often referred to as a forerunner of “feminist” governance. The reason being that “equality” and climate concern are two of the previously hot topics that have declined sharply in popularity among the young in recent years. What is the future of the social paradigm that the Swedish political class has been building on these two values, if the next generation is abandoning them?
While this twist has a lot of significance in Sweden in particular, the situation is the same across the West, where the establishment has also raised left-wing identity politics and global issues such as climate change to the top of the bill.
With the first election of Donald Trump in 2016 and various other Western political developments around the same time, the media started talking about Generation Z being “the most conservative generation since World War Two”. This cohort is believed to have affected the popularity of right-wing populism, primarily on the Internet, through rejection and derision of mainstream political trends, many of which were rooted in left-wing and liberal ideology. This was a trend that was by far most identified with young males, but it made some headway with females as well. The young online right was sometimes disregarded as a loud, facetious subculture, but it may in fact have been the defining elements of the next generation.
Through the 2010s, this growth of ‘conservatism’ among young adults and teenagers was alarming to some in mainstream politics, but it was still by most measures quite marginal. The rightward turn of the young accelerated in the 2020s, and it eventually became indisputable the years following the covid lockdowns. Some of the most convincing indications that Westerners born between 1997 and 2010 were in fact defined by conservatism and nationalism came with many European election results around the same time; in France, in Italy, in Sweden, and in Germany the turnout for Generation Z was decisively in favour for right-wing populist parties. Again, however, the divide between males and females was fairly significant, but there is no sign that the conservatism of even young women in Europe has reached its peak yet.
But are they truly conservative?
Catchy descriptions like “the most conservative generation since World War Two” can capture part of today’s youth movement, but it can also be questioned. From an ideologically conservative perspective, the commitment among young Westerners to the traditional values that conservatism embodies, such as family, religion, and patriotism, is not clear cut.
What surveys that supposedly illustrate this development show, is that concerns about crime, economic opportunities, and the loss of sovereignty have become more important to young people. This could relate to a number of real societal issues, such as the rise of crime and disorder following uncontrolled mass migration, the outsourcing of industries and transformation of the economy, and the infringement of national independence from bodies such as the EU. Oftentimes, these can be fairly universal concerns – acknowledgement of crime does not have to translate into criticism of immigration, and long-term unemployment and Euroscepticism do not have to translate into criticism of globalism. It just means that the political battleground over these issues is open for all parties, and that these topics can decide elections in a way they could not before.
Nationalists and conservatives have a natural advantage when it comes to these problems that young people are becoming increasingly aware of. But it does not mean they have a monopoly on young votes. If anything, the polarisation that also characterises Generation Z shows that some people are instead looking to the left to solve crime, unemployment, and the loss of rights.
It has been widely acknowledged across many aspects of society that the political division between men and women is larger than it has perhaps ever been. This phenomenon of the left wing becoming dominated by women and the right wing by men has been described as a chasm-deep divide in Sweden, where the issue may be especially pronounced (perhaps partly due to the influence that feminism has had in the wider public).
This means that not only is Generation Z the most conservative generation in decades – it could perhaps also be the most progressive generation, in a sense. The part of the population that adheres to very progressive values, such as increasing immigration, giving special political attention to minorities’ and women’s place in society, and climate justice, may have become smaller, but the tenacity of these beliefs in certain segments of the population remains very high.
Another aspect that the Swedish survey looked at aside from political priorities, were the desired professions of young people. This was, from the perspective that Generation Z is turning conservative, a mixed bag. An increasing number of young people have high ambitions for economic stability and self-reliance, and entrepreneurs and high-end vocations such as doctors topped the ranking. While there were a few other less paid jobs, such as teachers and police, that also made out the most popular life dreams, the trend generally points towards an increasing focus on self-realisation. Dreams of entrepreneurship may reflect a will to avoid the common labour market, which is seen as not being structured in young people’s favour.
Do high-paying jobs and entrepreneurship indicate a return to traditional values? Perhaps less so. Ambitions of this sort are indicative of an increased focus on individualism, which is a growing trend that has been recorded in other similar surveys as well. This individualism can also be detrimental to traditional social structures, and it may reflect the breakdown of high-trust society in Europe.
A parallel reading of the ranking of young Swedes’ dream vocations is that they are answering a call to societal needs – more doctors, teachers, and policemen are needed according to the top three political priorities of young people, according to Rasmussen Analys. Healthcare, school and education, and crime and personal safety are the most important issues, and that more people are orienting towards the jobs related to these sectors shows a growing sense of responsibility towards society among its youth. This can definitely be interpreted as an expression of conservatism.
‘Generation Greta’ flopped
In Sweden the perceived young enthusiasm for climate activism á la Greta Thunberg gave rise to the notion that the next generation of Swedes will be green, and probably quite left-leaning. When this movement was at its apex in 2019, more than half of all young respondents ranked climate change as their top political priority. This trend’s death was as sudden as its rise – although some in the Swedish Green Party argued that the young turned out to vote for them in the European Parliamentary elections in 2024, where the party traditionally scores a lot higher than in national elections. But something to keep in mind is that the European Parliamentary elections are not known for their high turnout, which is especially middling among younger voters.
In reality, the youth are by now likely fed up with mainstream talking points, of which climate change is perhaps the most common. The rightward turn of the Swedish, as well as the European, teenagers and young adults is probably a natural development as the youth does what it always does: revolt. ‘Woke’ self-loathing is something that left-wing institutions, including schools, can proselytise all day, but it only has the effect of making their ideas uncool and obsolete.
That the young seem to have moved on from the left’s progressivism seems to be the result of this eternal cycle of youth rebellion against the ideals of the custodian generation. That is however not for conservative politicians to take the youth vote for granted; above all they need to respond to the needs of these voters, or risk losing them to the next political movement.