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The recently signed trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, which includes a 15% tariff rate on European goods exported to the United States, as well as a complex package of European investments and energy supply commitments to the US economy, represents a significant step forward in transatlantic relations. The agreement provides, among other things, for the EU to purchase approximately $750 billion in American energy products—particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) and nuclear fuels—as well as investment in strategic sectors in the United States, including the defence industry. Although the agreement has been heralded, particularly by the United States, as a historic diplomatic success, a closer analysis suggests that it represents, above all, a clear manifestation of the current power asymmetries between Brussels and Washington. The negotiating balance appeared heavily weighted in favour of the American side, while European concessions—both economic and symbolic—appeared more significant and less offset by mutual benefits. This negotiating configuration raises crucial questions about the European Union’s ability to operate as an autonomous strategic player within the contemporary international system. In this context, the content and implications of the US-EU agreement must be critically analyzed, examining not only its immediate economic impact but also its medium to long term geopolitical consequences. In particular, it is easy to highlight the structural weaknesses that limit the European Union’s external action by delving into the internal dynamics that hinder a unified and coherent global posture. The objective is to identify the strategic guidelines through which the Union can, or must, reconfigure its role in the international context, promoting greater political, energetic and military autonomy from the great powers.
TARIFFS AND DIPLOMACY BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES
The trade agreement signed in Scotland between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump officially set the tariff rate for European products entering the American market at 15%. Although the signing of the agreement averted an escalation of trade between the two sides of the Atlantic, the content of the agreement raised serious concerns in Europe. The decision to accept non-reciprocal tariffs, coupled with a European commitment to US energy and investment in the American economy, clearly demonstrates the current asymmetry in transatlantic relations. The agreement highlighted the lack of real balance in negotiations at this juncture, a fact that inevitably raises broader questions about the future of the European Union as a global player.
THE GENESIS OF THE AGREEMENT: AMERICAN PRESSURE AND EUROPEAN MARGINS
President Trump’s negotiating style was consistent with his transactional vision of foreign policy: treating partners as competitors from whom concessions could be extracted. During the pre-summit press conference, Trump emphasized that the United States has maintained a one-sided relationship with Europe for decades. The European trade surplus and privileged access to the American market were described as unfair, thus justifying the imposition of new tariffs. Washington exerted pressure on Brussels primarily through specific requests on issues such as defence, energy, and greater openness of the European market to US products. The negotiations led by von der Leyen were certainly not easy, especially considering the highly fragmented internal context of the Union and the mission of mediating between the interests of the 27 member states. Germany, with its weight in the automotive sector, had every incentive to reach an agreement that would contain tariffs on cars, now set at 15% versus the previous 25%. However, this sectoral advantage does not offset the agreement’s overall imbalance. The EU has conceded on many fronts, from energy security (with the replacement of Russian gas with American LNG) to investment in US infrastructure, sacrificing part of its strategic autonomy.
AN ASYMMETRIC PACT: EUROPE IN A POSITION OF SUBORDINATION
The agreement with the United States has significant economic implications for the European Union. In particular, the import of US energy, characterized by higher costs than other alternative sources—such as gas from Algeria or the Middle East—leads to a structural increase in energy costs, with consequent negative repercussions on the competitiveness of European businesses and the purchasing power of European consumers. At the same time, the obligation to purchase US weapons, combined with the commitment to invest $600 billion in the United States, significantly reduces the financial resources available for the modernization of Europe’s industrial fabric and the pursuit of ecological transition objectives. On a geopolitical level, the agreement establishes Europe’s growing dependence on the United States, not only in energy and military matters, but also in technological regulation and digital trade. The exclusion of the pharmaceutical industry from the zero-tariff regime and the failure to define a shared regulatory framework for US Big Tech companies (such as Google, Meta, or Amazon) place the EU in a vulnerable position on this front as well. This is all happening at a time when technological competition has become one of the main battlegrounds between global powers.
TOWARDS A NEW EUROPEAN ARCHITECTURE
The Scotland Agreement also represents the limit of the current European institutional structure. The Commission, despite being led by an authoritative figure like von der Leyen, is influenced by the Member States and the logic of intergovernmental compromise. The persistent veto power exercised by individual states in the economic, fiscal and foreign policy spheres prevents the EU from speaking with one voice. To deal on equal terms with powers like the United States, China or Russia, more cohesive and centralized governance is needed. Europe must equip itself with a truly common industrial policy, capable of reducing dependence on external suppliers in key sectors such as energy, semiconductors, rare metals and defence. It is also necessary to strengthen the European military industry, which suffers from fragmentation and underutilization of resources. The creation of strategic autonomy requires the integration of technological, financial and military capabilities, and the creation of an adequately resourced European Defence Fund.
EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES: BETWEEN ALLIANCE AND COMPETITION
The agreement signed with Trump, therefore, calls into question the paradigm of Western solidarity that has guided transatlantic relations for decades. NATO and post-war economic cooperation were based on shared democratic values and mutual support. Today, however, Washington is increasingly acting as a sovereign actor, interested in maximizing its strategic returns even at the expense of its allies. Faced with this evolution, Europe can no longer rely on American benevolence but must develop its own agenda. The relationship with the United States cannot and must not be characterized by conflict; it requires a balanced redefinition. A partnership of equals, based on clear rules, mutual respect, and shared benefits, is still possible. But for this to happen, Europe must abandon its passive mindset and reclaim an independent role in major global challenges: energy transition, digital governance, common defence and foreign policy.
EUROPE’S FUTURE IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD
The international system is undergoing a transition toward a multipolar order, in which the unilateral supremacy of the United States is being challenged by emerging powers such as China, India, and even regional players like Turkey and Brazil. In this context, the European Union must choose whether to be a leading player or simply a space for influence. Global challenges—from climate change to migration flows, from technological warfare to regional conflicts—require a Europe capable of making decisions and acting coherently. The EU must equip itself with a common global strategy, overcoming national divisions. European diplomacy, a coherent foreign policy, an autonomous defence and unified representation in international forums (such as the UN Security Council) are essential steps towards consolidating Europe as a fully-fledged geopolitical player.
THE CHALLENGE OF STRATEGIC AUTONOMY
The trade agreement between the European Union and the United States is more than an economic understanding: it is the symbol of a changing relationship and a signal of urgency. Europe must free itself from its subordinate position by strengthening its economic, strategic, and institutional capabilities. The time for technical integration is over: a political leap is needed to transform the EU into a true power, capable of influencing the world rather than being subject to it. At stake is not only economic competitiveness, but the very democratic sovereignty of the European peoples.